759
FNUS75 KFGZ 200013
FWSFGZ

Spot Forecast for Sayer fire...Us forest service
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
513 PM MST Wed Jun 19 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1800 MST on June 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the
National Weather Service in Flagstaff, AZ

.DISCUSSION...Winds will gradually decrease this evening/overnight before
stronger winds return by tomorrow afternoon. The potential for showers/thunderstorms
returns Thursday afternoon and the possibility of rain/storms will continue through
the end of the week/into the weekend. During the afternoon is when convective activity
will be most likely to occur, but there is a chance for activity to continue throughout
the overnight hours too. There is going to be sufficient moisture with this storm system,
so dry lightning is a minimal threat. Expect greater chances for wetting rains with stronger
storms. Gusty/erratic winds are likely near storm development. Outside of these storm driven winds,
generally look for south-southwest winds 10-20 mph.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....45-50 degrees.
Max humidity........45-50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 5 mph becoming more variable overnight.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Min Vent Rate.......Poor.
Clearing Index......2.
Mixing height.......100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 10 knots shifting to the south
                    after 3 am.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny. Slight chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......15-30 percent.
Max temperature.....85-90 degrees
Min humidity........15-20 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South-southwest winds 10 to 20 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
LAL.................3.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Max Vent Rate.......Excellent.
Clearing Index......2960.
Mixing height.......10400 ft AGL in the morning increasing to 12300
                    ft AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 10 knots increasing to south
                    20 to 25 knots in the late morning and
                    afternoon.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......30-40 percent.
Min temperature.....50-55 degrees.
Max humidity........88-92 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms. Gradually to
                    southeast winds towards early Friday morning.
LAL.................3.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Min Vent Rate.......Poor.
Clearing Index......5.
Mixing height.......100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 15 knots shifting to the
                    southeast 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and
                    overnight.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny. Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and
                    thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50-65 percent.
Max temperature.....80-85 degrees.
Min humidity........32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the
                    southwest in the afternoon closer to 15 mph.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
LAL.................4.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Max Vent Rate.......Excellent.
Clearing Index......3033.
Mixing height.......8700 ft AGL in the morning increasing to 12400
                    ft AGL late in the morning.
Transport winds.....Southeast 15 to 20 knots shifting to the
                    southwest 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon.

$$
Forecaster...KONIECZNY
Requested by...Nathaniel dierking
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416415.0/FGZ
.DELDT 06/19/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Nathaniel.dierking@usda.gov