138
FNUS75 KFGZ 082009
FWSFGZ

Spot Forecast for Big Bug Piles...USFS
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
109 PM MST Wed Oct 8 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MST on October 10.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the
National Weather Service in Flagstaff, AZ

.DISCUSSION...A significant fall moisture surge will bring widespread
rainfall accumulations across Yavapai county. Two day rainfall totals
0.5-2 inches are forecast with locally higher amounts possible
Friday-Saturday. There is some uncertainty in where the band of
heaviest rainfall will set up, but it is currently forecast to include
Big Bug Mesa. A Flood Watch is in effect both days and during
the overnight hours. Isolated severe storms will also be possible
through the period.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Rain showers likely and chance of
                    thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Max temperature.....63 to 65.
Min humidity........70 to 80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Max Vent Rate.......Poor.
Clearing Index......69.
Mixing height.......900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 10 knots shifting to the
                    northwest in the afternoon.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Rain showers likely and a chance of
                    thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Min temperature.....52 to 54.
Max humidity........90 to 100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Min Vent Rate.......Poor.
Clearing Index......17.
Mixing height.......200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 5 to 10 knots shifting to the east
                    after 3 am.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Rain showers and chance of
                    thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
Max temperature.....58 to 60.
Min humidity........80-90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 10 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Max Vent Rate.......Good.
Clearing Index......636.
Mixing height.......3200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 15 knots shifting to the southwest
                    around 20 knots in the afternoon.

A weather forecast table for your SPOT location is linked.
The information provided by this site is for planning purposes only
and is not intended to substitute information provided by an official
National Weather Service SPOT forecast.
https://www.weather.gov/dlh/fwd?lat=34.4298&lon=-112.3514&clat=34.4298&clon=-112.3514

$$
Forecaster...LEWANDOWSKI
Requested by...Adam Mendenhall
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2523188.0/FGZ
.DELDT 10/08/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL adam.mendenhall@usda.gov,jason.heffner@usda.gov,autin.langham@usda.gov