616
FXXX02 KWNP 160226
WEKFOR

:Product: 27-day Space Weather Forecast
:Issued: 2025 Jun 16 0159 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
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#               27-day Space Weather Forecast
#
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
16 June - 12 July 2025

Solar activity is likely to range from low to high levels throughout
the period. R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events are expected, with a
chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, over 16-22 Jun. Region
4114 (N17, L=34, class/area=Ekc/380 on 15 Jun) continues a trend of
growth and increasing magnetic complexity, and has the capacity for
additional event-level flaring.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is likely to become enhanced
over 16-18 Jun following the M8.4 flare at 15/1807 UTC. No other
proton events are expected during the period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on 16-22 Jun and 26 Jun-04 Jul. Normal
to moderate levels are expected to prevail throughout the remainder
of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) storm
levels on 15 Jun due to positive polarity CH HSS influences, and
again on 25-26 Jun due to negative polarity CH HSS influences.
Periods of active conditions are likely on 17 Jun due to positive
polarity CH HSS influences, and on 18 Jun due to anticipated passage
of an interplanetary shock as the 15 Jun CME (M8.4 flare at 15/1807
UTC) passes in close proximity to Earth. Active conditions are again
likely on 24 and 27Jun due to negative polarity CH HSS influences.
Additional active periods are likely on 01-03 and 05-07 Jun in
response to negative polarity CH HSS effects, and over 11-12 Jul due
to positive polarity CH HSS effects. Quiet and quiet to unsettled
levels are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of the
outlook period.