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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
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153 FXUS63 KFSD 261132 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 632 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - River crests have already occurred or will occur within the next 24 hours. - An active pattern aloft brings multiple rain chances through the forecast period with the most widespread chances expected on Thursday and Friday and again early next week. - Chance of one inch or more of rainfall between now and Saturday morning is low (< 30%); however, any thunderstorm could produce locally heavy rainfall (1" or more) Thursday through Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 352 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 CURRENTS: More pleasant start to the morning (comparatively speaking) with 3 AM temps in the 60s and dew points in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Most of the area is dry, although an area of showers embedded in mid level cloud deck is sliding southeast from northeastern SD toward the Hwy 14 corridor early this morning with a weak wave and LLJ. So far, rainfall amounts with this activity over the last 6 hours have been a 0.10" or less, and it has been weakening as it moves south. Winds from the northeast have been periodically breezy with gusts 20-30 mph. TODAY: Any lingering showers this morning will come to an end as the mid level wave and LLJ weaken through the early morning hours. Any precip which reaches the grounds should be very light (a couple of hundredths. Pleasant and cooler weather on tap today with CAA and north to northwesterly flow aloft as mid level ridge builds to the west. Plenty of sunshine today with highs in the 70s to lower 80s. Breezy conditions this afternoon across southwestern MN and northwestern IA with gusts around 20 mph. TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: Our general reprieve from active weather will be short lived, as the next mid level wave ejects into western SD by tonight. Forcing from the initial weak wave and push of WAA should be enough to develop showers and storms across western SD, which move east through the overnight hours, reaching the I-29 corridor by rush hour. Lows tonight in the 50s and 60s. Scattered showers and isolated storms continue to move east during the day Thursday with another wave tracking through the weak ridge, all ahead of the more defined low in the western CONUS. Cooler on Thursday with lots of cloud cover and scattered showers around, only in the 70s. Trough axis and surface low track east through Thursday night and Friday, keeping at least isolated shower and storm chances in place. Lows Thursday night in the 60s with highs Friday in the upper 70s and 80s. Tightening surface pressure gradient leads to breezy southerly wind Thursday, shifting to northwesterly behind the cold front through the day Friday. Severe weather risks are low, but not zero during this time frame. For Thursday and Thursday night, better instability remains off to the west; however, some of the guidance is showing an axis of stronger instability (1500 J/kg of CAPE or so) and bulk shear around 30-35 knots during the afternoon and evening as the elevated warm front lifts north. So can`t entirely rule out an isolated stronger storm during this time, although confidence is low given ensemble probability of at least 1000 J/kg of CAPE only around 25%. Otherwise, on-going convection across western SD will likely weaken as it moves into the MO River Valley and toward the I-29 corridor overnight. For Friday, instability increases during the afternoon as we sit in the warm sector ahead of the cold front. Ensemble probability of over 1000 J/kg of CAPE Friday afternoon/evening climbs to 80% near/east of I-29 with similar probability for over 1500 J/kg. Mid level lapse rates 6.5-7 deg C/km and increasing bulk shear to 40 knots or so would support some stronger storms if storms can break the cap. Widespread heavy rainfall looks unlikely, with chances of over an inch of rain between this morning and Saturday morning less than 30% for much of the area. However, PWATs climbing to around 2" and increased moisture transport would support some locally heavy rainfall with thunderstorms of an inch or more. SATURDAY ONWARD: Brief mid level ridging for the weekend, with mostly dry weather expected outside of a very low chance with a mid weekend short wave. More robust troughing begins to take shape for the beginning of the week with periodic rain and storm chances returning. Temperatures generally near to below normal during this time, warming toward the beginning of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 625 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Isolated showers this morning continue mainly for the Hwy 14 corridor southeast along the I-90 corridor of southwestern MN into northwestern IA - these are expected to taper off through mid/late morning. Have left mention out of KHON and KFSD given sparse coverage west of the Buffalo Ridge. VFR conditions prevail through much of the period with a few clouds around. Winds will vary in direction from northwest to east to southeast through the period. Additional shower and isolated storm chances increase from west to east after 27.06z, reaching the I-29 corridor toward 27.12z. Did add a PROB30 group for KHON, but omitted from KFSD with this issuance. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SG AVIATION...SG