407
FXUS63 KFSD 131125
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
625 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near to below normal temperatures will dominate the work week
  with highs in the 50s to lower 60s.

- Outside of sprinkles this afternoon, scattered rain returns
  by Thursday with a 60-80% probability of greater than 0.10" of
  rain.

- Nighttime lows may locally dip into the mid-upper 30s through
  Friday, but more widespread 30s with light winds/clear skies
  will bring potential frost Friday night/Saturday morning.

- Warmer temperatures return through the weekend into early
  next week with highs back above normal.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 420 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Stratus coverage has been the largest challenge in the near
term early this morning, as models have not handled the wedge of
clearing along the James River Valley very well to this point.
Aside from this, the forecast remains largely on track and no
significant updates are anticipated beyond what was discussed
last evening.

Issued at 907 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Stratus continues to linger throughout the CWA late this
evening. Some pockets of clearing have formed, but most guidance
continues to hint at the redevelopment of stratus into the
morning hours.

Further southwest, we`re beginning to see an increase in mid-lvl
clouds and even light showers. This activity is tied to the
arrival of weak dPVA into the Black Hills region, combined with
the left exit region of the upper jet entering the Plains. This
activity will continue to move northeast through the night,
likely staying just northwest of the CWA.

Weak mid-lvl lift as mid-lvl vorticity and 700 mb warm advection
moves across the CWA by mid-day Tuesday. Would not be surprised
at all to see some very light rain to sprinkles form through
portions of the CWA during the daylight hours. Temperatures on
Tuesday will depend on cloud cover, as a northwesterly surface
wind will continue. The NBM is likely biased a bit too warm
after the past week, so will blend more higher resolution short
term guidance for cooler high temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 108 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

A fast moving wave will exit the area late this afternoon into the
evening. A few sprinkles or patchy drizzle will be possible, but
impacts will be minimal. Otherwise the challenge will be stratus
development with dissipation through the afternoon into the evening
and then further redevelopment overnight into Tuesday morning. Even
with a few locations possibly falling into the upper 30s, a north
wind of 5 to 10 mph and cloud cover will likely limit any frost
development.

Another wave will move through NE on Tuesday and could bring a stray
showers into parts of northeast NE and northwest IA, but once again,
amounts will be light and impacts minimal. With some cloud cover
and a cool northerly breeze, temperatures will remain around normal.

Wednesday will be mild and dry as upper level ridging builds ahead
of the next stronger wave. High pressure at the surface will see
lighter winds and temperatures around normal.

The next stronger wave moves into the area Wednesday night into
Thursday. Warm advection increases in the lower levels ahead of this
wave Wednesday night which will bring the potential for some
rainfall. The stronger warm advection is more likely across NE and
expect the better rainfall amounts to remain there as well.
Instability looks very weak so thunderstorms are unlikely. Currently
the better chance for a more meaningful rainfall (0.25" to 0.50") is
south of I-90 on Thursday during the day. The latest GEFS and EC
Ensemble are indicating a 20-40 percent chance for more than a half
an inch of rain south of I-90.

Saturday morning will see cool surface high pressure settle south,
bringing a chance for frost across the area. Some hints that
southerly return flow may set up through the night so confidence on
frost development remains a bit low.

A warming trend is looking more likely Sunday into early next week
as faster westerly flow aloft transitions to upper level ridging
through mid week. This will allow for a well mixed environment
Sunday and Monday, with southerly flow becoming more dominant mid to
late week. Some hints that a cool front may slip south on Monday,
but the effects on temperatures would not be real strong. This is
still 6-10 days out, so lots of room for changes, but for now
looking like a good chance for near to above normal temperatures
Sunday through the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Areas of MVFR stratus linger this morning, but expect ceiling
heights to slowly lift into lower VFR range by this afternoon.
Could see areas MVFR stratus return to the area after sunset,
but confidence is too low to include MVFR ceilings in the latter
hours of the KHON/KFSD TAFs at this time.

Northwest to north winds will remain on the lighter side, with
speeds generally at or below 12kt through the period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JH
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...JH