765
FXUS63 KFSD 172338
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
638 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers will return by Saturday with mostly light
  accumulations.

- Patchy areas of frost will be possible by Sunday morning.
  Make sure to cover or bring in any sensitive vegetation.

- The combination of strong winds and drier fuels on Monday
  will lead to high to very high fire danger. Make sure to limit
  any activity that could create a spark!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

CURRENTS & TONIGHT: A seasonable day continues! Taking a look across
the area, mostly clear conditions persist this afternoon with
temperatures largely in the 60s to low 70s. From here, expect the
quieter conditions to persist well into the evening as breezy
westerly winds gradually decrease. Otherwise, expect mid to high
level cloud cover to gradually increase overnight as our next system
ejects out of the Rockies into the northern plains. Lastly, slightly
cooler temperatures are expected overnight given the lingering cold
air advection (CAA) and lighter winds. As a result, lows will likely
fall into the low to mid 40s for the night.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: Looking into the rest of the weekend, an active
pattern continues aloft as a trough ejects out of the Rockies with
its associated cold front by Saturday. Scattered showers will likely
develop initially across northwestern SD then gradually spread
southeastwards over the course of Saturday with the first drops in
our area likely occurring around daybreak in our western-most
counties. While the I-29 corridor won`t likely see any accumulations
up until late morning to early afternoon (11am to 1pm), most of the
guidance continue to show light accumulations with most areas only
seeing a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch at best (0.01" to 0
.10"). Shifting gears here, besides the main push of precipitation
with the cold front; some the CAMs have started to introduce some
wrap around showers behind the front as well so we`ve tried to work
these chances in to POPs as well. When its all said and done should
see most of this activity exit our area by the evening hours.

Otherwise, cool and breezy conditions are expected on Saturday as
highs struggle to get into the 50s and low 60s given the conditions.
Surface winds will be on the breezier side as a tightening SPG lead
to wind gusts in the 25-35 mph range at times behind the previously
mentioned cold front. With in mind, decided to continue the trend of
blending in some of the NBM90th percentile for our wind gusts in the
afternoon. Lastly, as cooler air funnels into the region and winds
become lighter; could see areas of frost develop to start the day on
Sunday as overnight lows dip into the low to upper 30s. While these
areas will be patchy at best, the better chances will likely be in
our far western and northwestern zones where the lightest winds are
expected. Either way, make sure to cover and/or bring in any
sensitive vegetation. With heights expected to rise by Sunday with
approaching upper level ridging expect quieter conditions to return
as highs peak in the 60s.

MONDAY ONWARDS: Heading into the extended period, the active pattern
will extend into the new week as a well agreed upon trough traverses
the Northern Plains by Monday. As lee cyclogenesis out of the
Rockies leads to the development of a surface low, the SPG will also
tighten leading to gusty northwesterly winds from the mid-morning
onwards. With ensemble guidance continuing to show moderate to high
probabilities (50%-80%) of wind gusts exceeding 35 kts, decided to
continue the trend of increasing our overall wind speeds using a
blend of the NBM90th percentile. Nonetheless, high fire danger is
expected through the evening as the combination of strong winds and
drier fuels could lead to rapid fire spread. With this in mind, make
sure to limit any activity that could create a spark! Otherwise,
precipitation chances continue to look rather limited ahead. Besides
a few light shower with the cold front on Monday and some wrap
around showers Tuesday morning, most ensemble guidance continues to
keep QPF under a 0.10" of an inch through the last week of October.
Lastly, expect seasonal temperatures to continue through Thursday
with temperatures mainly in the 50s an 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

VFR conditions begin the TAF period. Light west/southwest winds will
persist for the rest of the evening hours before slowly turning to
out of the northwest during the overnight hours. A cold front will
pass through during the morning hours, leading to stronger northwest
gusts up to 25-35 knots by the afternoon timeframe. Rain showers
will also push through the area during the morning and afternoon
hours as well. Ceilings and visibilities may fall to MVFR levels
while rain is falling. The showers will be on the move out towards
the end of the TAF period while the northwest winds slowly
weaken.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...Meyers