804
FXUS63 KFSD 090444
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1044 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow continues to exit the Tri-State area this evening, with
  occasional flurries overnight. Watch for refreeze potential
  and icing on area roads after sunset.

- Very cold temperatures move southward and continue into
  Monday. Snow cover will allow overnight lows to towards single
  digits.

- Temperatures warm through the week, climbing nearly 10
  degrees above normal by next weekend.

- Little to no precipitation expected into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

THIS AFTERNOON: Water vapor imagery continues to show a compact wave
dropping southward into northern Nebraska early this afternoon.
After our welcome to Winter with 1-4" of snow in the Tri-State
area, scattered snow/sleet/rain showers will progress southward
through the afternoon, impacting mostly areas west of I-29. Any
additional accumulation will be minimal. Further east,
lingering light snow tied to initial vorticity that tracked
through the area early this morning, is also moving southeast.
Expectations are that measurable snow comes to an end by sunset
as forcing moves south of the CWA.

TONIGHT:  Considerable cloud cover may linger through the overnight
hours as broad troughing stretches through the Upper Midwest
and Great Lakes. While measurable snow ends, there are several
models hinting that secondary line of vorticity drops southward
through North Dakota and Minnesota overnight. With any lingering
stratus hanging around the -12 to -16 thermal layer, would not
be surprised to see a few flurries. One caution for the
overnight hours is that while winds may help dry up any wet
roadways or surfaces, lingering snow melt may begin to refreeze
freeze with the loss of daylight and drop in temperatures.

SUNDAY: Most of the snow that fell on Saturday will linger well into
Sunday as north winds, continued low lvl cold air advection, and
scattered clouds continue.  Have lowered high temperatures a couple
degrees which will see most locations remaining below freezing.   A
colder day on Sunday combining with clearing skies, lingering snow
cover, and the arrival of surface ridging overnight could lead to
some pretty dramatic overnight lows into Monday morning.  While we
may not drop as low as the cold-bias CMC into the lower single
digits, do feel that the NBM is probably too warm and have lowered
temperatures along the snowpack in most locations.

MONDAY-FRIDAY: A very quiet week is ahead for the Northern United
States as medium range guidance continues to show increasing heights
through the Central United States. Temperatures gradually warm
Monday which should take care of most of our lingering snow cover.
The passage of a weak surface trough Tuesday pushes high
temperatures back near seasonal normals in the upper 40s to 50s. The
ridge is expected to amplify from the middle of the week through the
end of next week, spilling broad warm advection through the Northern
Plains at the same time.   Increasing southwesterly low-lvl and
surface flow combining with 850mb temperatures surging to
nearly +18C by Friday and Saturday. In fact, ESAT tables from
both the NAEFS/EFS both indicate that 925-700MB temperatures may
be above the 95th. This puts the probability of 60+ degrees
temperatures greater than 50% at this extended timeframe.
percentile of climatology.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1040 PM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Low level stratus sits mainly along and west of I-29 currently but
continues to drift southwards. The stratus is sitting at VFR/MVFR
levels and will remain at these thresholds through the overnight
hours. A stray flurry is possible though confidence is too low to
include in a TAF. Northwesterly winds will remain breezy with gusts
up to about 20 knots. Should see the stratus lift during the morning
hours tomorrow, returning ceilings back to VFR levels. Northwesterly
winds will persist through the rest of the period though with gusts
slightly increasing up to 20-25 knots.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dux
AVIATION...Meyers