262
FXUS63 KFSD 190457
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1057 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extensive clouds continue into Wednesday, with some potential
  for fog overnight.

- An extended period of dry weather is now expected through the
  upcoming weekend, and potentially longer.

- Temperatures are now favored to remain near or above normal
  through the upcoming weekend, with some potential for 60s by
  this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 124 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

THIS AFTERNOON: Extensive stratus remain in place across the Tri-
State area, holding temperatures below normal in the upper 30s to
lower 40s.  Some breaks in the clouds are possible through sunset,
but may be brief.

TONIGHT: Stratus will be extensive across the region heading into
the overnight hours. As we move past midnight, some erosion of
the stratus is likely from west to east as mid-upr clouds
increase. Guidance indicating that stratus further east may
begin to settle downward after sunset, producing reduced
visibilities in areas especially east of I- 29. Further west, if
stratus clears after midnight, additional radiational cooling
induced fog may develop west of the James River into central
South Dakota. At this point, not expecting widespread dense fog,
but a few locations may drop below 1 mile.

WEDNESDAY: Mid-lvl flow turns zonal on Wednesday, allowing
southwesterly surface flow to return, and pushing stratus east
during the day. The result will be temperatures climbing 5 to
10 degrees above normal, with 60s likely in south central South
Dakota.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: A front will  pass through the region by Thursday
morning with just a bit of increased mid-upr clouds.  A very quiet
end of the week is likely as high pressure moves through the
Northern Plains. Temperatures may dip a couple degrees both days,
but are still expected to remain 5+ degrees above normal.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY:  As a cut-off low develops over the southwestern
US, warm zonal flow will prevail further north.  This will bring an
extended period of warm and dry weather through the weekend and into
next week.  Temperatures Saturday through Monday climb into the 50s
and 60s which will be 10+ degrees above normal.  The next risk for
any rainfall may hold off until late Tuesday and Wednesday, but are
highly dependent on the track of the ejecting southwest low.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1057 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

A mix of MVFR to IFR will persist through at least the first half of
this period. These will slowly improve to VFR as clouds begin to
break up from west to east after daybreak.

Stratus over central South Dakota will hang on longer than
previously forecasted. This will work to limit radiational cooling
over this area, resulting in lower chances for dense fog. However,
some valley and river fog is still possible. Patchy dense fog is
still expected for portions of east central South Dakota,
Southwestern Minnesota, and northwestern Iowa. Model soundings in
this area indicate stratus lowering through daybreak. Visibility of
3 to 6 miles is expected with pockets of less than 2 miles possible.
Fog should burn off by mid-to-late morning.

Winds are southeasterly to southerly and will continue to turn more
southerly as we approach daybreak. Winds increase through the
morning and will be gusting 15-22 kts by early afternoon, with
the highest gusts east of the James River Valley. Winds decrease
into the evening and become light.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dux
AVIATION...AJP