197
FXUS63 KFSD 142313
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
613 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible late
  afternoon into the evening mainly near the Missouri River into
  parts of northwest IA. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
  may then develop overnight with the better chances in
  southwest MN. These storms have a lower probability of being
  severe.

- A weak wave will move through on Sunday bringing another
  chance for disorganized strong to severe storms. The better
  chances appear to be near and east of I-29 in the afternoon
  and early evening. Confidence remains low to moderate.

- Monday night and Tuesday should see the strongest upper level
  wave and brings the better chance for a more widespread rain
  and thunderstorm threat to the area. Still not confident on
  location of the better chances so that will be something to
  watch for now.

- Very warm temperatures in the 90s become more likely late next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Plenty of instability works into the area from the south through
this evening, especially south of I-90, with CAPE values around 2000
J/kg expected. With weak mid and upper level ridging through the
afternoon, thunderstorm development looks minimal, but a very weak
shortwave will move in this evening into the overnight. This may
allow a few storms to develop during the evening, especially closer
to the Missouri River near a low level roughly surface to 925 mb
front. With weak shear and higher CAPE values will need to watch for
slower moving and possibly training cells in a very localized area
which could cause some heavy rain. Also lending to the potential for
locally heavy rain is a freezing level around 13000 feet. Otherwise
the main severe threat would be hail to half dollars and wind gusts
to 60 mph. DCAPE values appear to top out around 1100 J/kg near the
Missouri River late afternoon into the evening. The latest high
resolution models are inconsistent with activity this afternoon and
evening although most of the models have little to no activity until
at least 23z , but with the weak ridging in the afternoon and the
weak wave tonight, holding off any better development until this
evening makes sense. Likely the best chance will be from about 6 pm
to 10 pm.

Later tonight some elevated warm advection may spark some scattered
shower and thunderstorm activity over mostly southwest MN. While
severe weather is unlikely, CAPE values around 1000-15000 J/kg could
lead to quarter sized hail and possibly some locally heavy downpours
with some slower storm motion.

Sunday morning cold see some lingering chances east of I-29 but
confidence on this is pretty low. What looks to be a possibly better
chance will be Sunday afternoon and evening as that weak overnight
wave moves through the area. Locations east of about Highway 81 will
see CAPE values approach 2000-2500 J/kg with eastern SD into
northwest IA the most likely location for this higher instability
and what appears to be a weakening capping inversion. Once again
shear is pretty weak so expect locally heavy rainfall, hail to ping
pong ball and wind gusts to 65 mph to be the main threats. While
tornadoes are very unlikely there may be a little warm front around
the MN/IA border as well as some potential left behind outflow
boundaries, so that will be something to watch for as well.

Later Sunday night into Monday morning might be a lull in potential
as weak ridging moves through behind of the exiting wave and ahead
of the incoming wave. Confidence on Monday afternoon and evening is
pretty low but do think that there will be some activity. Both the
Nam and GFS are pushing 3000-3500 J/kg CAPE with some moderate mid
and upper level winds from 30-50 knots. This could allow for a
disorganized multi cellular cluster to see some cell mergers and
strengthen into a supercell or two. Still too far out for any real
confidence, but something to watch out for.

While confidence on a stronger wave for Monday night into Tuesday is
pretty high, the locations of the convective activity is pretty low.
The models do seem a touch quicker with the wave so that may
suppress the stronger activity southward for the afternoon and
evening. Definitely a wait and see for Tuesday.

Wednesday into Saturday will see northwest flow aloft give way to a
fairly strong ridge, so highs in the 90s may become fairly common
late neat week and into next weekend. Spotty chances for showers and
thunderstorms but no big signs on anything specific at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 610 PM CDT Sat Jun 14 2025

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms over parts of northwest IA
will continue through late evening. A few of these storms could
be strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds.
Additional showers and storms could develop through east central
SD into southwestern MN late tonight into Sunday morning, with a
lesser severe chance with these storms. For Sunday, the better
chances of showers and storms will be east of Interstate 29
during the afternoon and evening, and a few of these could be
severe.

Otherwise, MVFR/IFR stratus over MN and northern SD may shift a
little farther to the south tonight, possibly affecting KHON
and KFSD into Sunday morning. Winds will be on the lighter side,
out of the east/southeast through the TAF period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...JM