152
FXUS63 KFSD 301756
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1256 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and non-severe thunderstorms will move
  north across the area today. A stronger storm may produce pea
  sized hail, but patchy lightning will be the main risk.

- Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from about 11
  pm to 4 am with the better chances near the Missouri River and
  possibly as far north as near and west of the James River.
  The main threats will be small hail and wind gusts to 50 mph,
  but an isolated storm could produce quarter sized hail and
  wind gusts to 60 mph.

- The second chance for severe storms is Sunday afternoon and
  evening. However, confidence is low in development. If storms
  can develop, large hail up to ping pong balls and damaging
  winds to 65 mph would be the main hazards. Continue to monitor
  the latest forecast for the most up to date information.

- Moderate chances (30-60%) for rain will persist through the
  bulk of next week. However, severe storm chances continue to
  look low (near 5% or less) through next week. The better
  chances for rainfall appear to be Wednesday and Wednesday
  night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

The latest runs of the models are more consistent on bringing a wave
northward tonight with a broken line of convection. With very weak
shear and CAPE values likely limited to 1000 J/kg or less, severe
weather is very unlikely. An isolated storm could produce wind gusts
to 60 mph or hail to the size of quarters, with the better chances
near the Missouri River, possibly as far north as the James River. A
few locations could pick up a little heavy rain, but for now storm
motion looks quick enough that this heavy rain will likely last an
hour or less at any one location. The better chances for this will
be late evening into the overnight hours, generally from about 11 pm
to 4 am for the stronger storms.

This wave should lift north of the area by late Sunday morning to
early afternoon. Some showery activity will be possible through the
morning, possibly lingering into the afternoon in southwest MN.

The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be late Sunday
afternoon into Sunday evening. This is a much lower confidence
potential as the area could be muddled by cloud cover and even when
the cloud cover clears, the latest models are hinting at a decent
capping inversion. For now with only weak mid and upper level
support, this cap may hold. There could be a slightly better wave
move through Nebraska during this time which would bring a bit
better chance closer to the Missouri River into parts of northwest
IA. Also of note will be some low to mid level warm air advection
moving across the area Sunday late afternoon into the night,
starting in central SD late afternoon, which might be enough to
spark some isolated activity and aid in breaking the cap. All-in-all
a very low confidence set up during this time. In fact SPC just
downgraded the area from a Slight Risk to Marginal.

Upper level ridging will be in place on Monday and Tuesday and limit
any precipitation chances. Upper level troughing does spread into
North Dakota Tuesday night through Thursday and could bring some
showers and thunderstorms. The best chances should be Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Faster westerly flow remains in place through the
end of next week and this will likely support periodic chances for
showers and storms as well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

An abundance of challenges ahead with scattered showers and very
isolated thunderstorms moving northward through the afternoon.
From late afternoon through about 10 pm much of the area will
see a break from any precipitation. However from about 10 pm
through 4 am a broken line of thunderstorms is expected to move
northeast through the area, possibly bringing some wind gusts to
40 mph and patchy heavy rain. Late tonight into Sunday morning
we should see most activity transition to mostly showers and
very little thunder again. As for ceilings, patchy MVFR ceilings
are expected today, then they should gradually deteriorate in
most locations later tonight into Sunday morning, likely to IFR.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...08