054
FXUS63 KFSD 040448
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1048 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of drizzle and light showers will persist into Wednesday.
  Additional accumulations of 0.25" to 0.75" of an inch are
  expected. Rainfall will gradually diminish from west to east
  by Wednesday afternoon.

- More breezy conditions are ahead as northwesterly winds
  produce gusts between 25-35 mph on Wednesday.

- A hard freeze is expected on both Friday and Saturday morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 806 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Taking a look across the area, dreary and wet conditions persists
this evening as pockets of drizzle and light showers rotate through
the area. Overall, not expecting any significant changes heading
into Wednesday. Depending on if we can keep mid-level saturation
overnight, could see more of a widespread transition to drizzle than
light showers at times given the lower LCLs. Unfortunately, the wet
conditions will then carry over for most of the day on Wednesday as
the mid-level low wobbles throughout IA/MN. Continued precipitation
chances, will keep temperatures on the cooler side with highs in the
low to upper 40s for most areas. Lastly, more breezy conditions are
ahead as northwesterly surface winds produce gusts between 25-35 mph
for most of the day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 110 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Low pressure deepens over IA today, then lifts north into MN and
restrengthens on Wednesday. This keeps the local area under
persistent wrap around warm advection. With plenty of moisture,
occasional rain is expected. The better chance for rain will be east
of highway 81 this afternoon, then east of the James River on
Wednesday as lighter rainfall spreads westward as the low deepens
over MN. Low pressure finally begins to drift east Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night which will bring an end to the
rainfall. Additional rainfall amounts will likely be a half an inch
to an inch over the next two days. Areas west of the James will see
the least amount of rain.

Thursday should see marginally breezy northwest flow help dry out
and scour out most of the cloud cover. However the low level
thermal field is still on the cool side, so highs will generally be
from 45 to 52 degrees.

A nose of surface high pressure builds into the area Friday morning
bringing temperatures down into the upper 20s to lower 30s in most
locations. Will need to keep an eye on the potential for fog given
the very moist soil conditions. If fog can develop with sub-freezing
temperatures, roads could end up slippery in the morning.

Sunday through Tuesday will see a stronger northern stream jet bring
some milder temperatures with very low chances for rainfall. Lows
will likely be from the mid 30s to lower 40s with highs in the mid
50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1040 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Mainly IFR and lower will continue this TAF period. Looking at
satellite imagery, a mainly IFR to LIFR stratus deck continues
to lower this evening with pockets of showers and drizzle. While
these conditions will likely continue into Wednesday, should
start to see some improvements by Wednesday evening/night as
this system pushes eastwards. Otherwise, kept prevailing
showers across most TAF sites with breezy northwesterly winds in
place through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...05
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...05