892
FXUS63 KFSD 091129
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
529 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered flurries possible through today, with no additional
  accumulation expected. Refreeze of snowmelt and patchy blowing
  snow may lead to slick spots today; use caution if traveling.

- Very cold temperatures continue into Monday. Snow cover
  allows overnight lows to fall into the single digits and
  teens.

- Temperatures warm through the week, climbing 10 or more degrees
  above normal by next weekend.

- Outside of today`s flurries, little to no precipitation
  expected through late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

THROUGH TONIGHT: Much colder this morning with our welcome to
winter. with temperatures continuing to fall this morning into the
teens. This puts wind chills in the single digits and lower teens.
With these cold temperatures, have some concerns for refreeze of
yesterday`s snowmelt on area roadways. Additionally, breezy
northwesterly winds gusting overnight around 20 to 30 mph may have
led to some very isolated blowing snow. Be aware of possible slick
spots this morning. Flurries are possible through daybreak with
stratus over the area, a weak wave, and some saturation through the
DGZ. Not expecting any additional snow accumulations.

Cold surface high pressure moves into the area today, with the
mid/upper level trough to our east. With this pattern and
yesterday`s snowfall, leaned on some of the cooler guidance and
toward the 25th percentile for highs today. Highs in the 20s to
lower 30s, warmest in south central SD where there is little to no
snowpack. Northwesterly winds remain a bit breezy through the day so
may see some isolated blowing snow. May also see some flurries
through the day. Wind chills remain in the upper teens and 20s.

MONDAY: Another cold morning with lows in the single digits and
teens. This puts wind chills again in the single digits for most of
the area. Otherwise, surface high pressure moves off to the
southeast through the day. We`ll see a weak short wave with some
WAA, which with the return of southerly surface flow and a bit more
sunshine, should lead to a slightly warmer day. Highs in the 30s with
lower to mid 40s for snowpack-less south central SD.

TUESDAY-SATURDAY: Mid level wave and surface front move Tuesday, but
given the lack of low level moisture, expect dry conditions. Ridging
continues to build to the west and slide east through the week. This
pattern keeps us in northwesterly flow until the ridge axis moves
overhead late week. Therefore, dry and periodically breezy
conditions are expected through late week. We`ll see temperatures
climb back well above seasonal averages. By Thursday, we`ll be
running anywhere from 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal averages, with
highs in the 50s and 60s. Lows remain mild too, in the 30s.

By late Friday, mid and upper level ridge has pushed to the east,
with a trough digging into the Rockies. Although guidance varies on
the strength and evolution of the trough and surface low, GFS,
ECMWF, and Canadian all show this pattern shift Friday night into
Saturday. This may be our next chance for precipitation, although
confidence is low.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 525 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

MVFR to lower end VFR stratus continues through at least mid
morning as it slides south. Guidance seems to be handling at
least the coverage of this poorly, so confidence is lower than
average on how soon we`ll return to and stay at VFR conditions.
Do expect a return to VFR conditions area wide later today into
tonight, although some hi-res sounding show at least a few
clouds late tonight around 4kft.

With the stratus around, expect scattered flurries through the
day. So far this morning, most locations with flurries have
stayed at or above 6 SM. Given sporadic nature, did not include
in any TAFs.

Northwesterly winds remain breezy through the day and into the
evening hours, with gusts 20 to 25 knots. Expect winds to taper
down late tonight.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SG
AVIATION...SG