295
FXUS63 KFSD 021136
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
536 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  Patchy fog this morning may briefly reduce visibility to
   below one mile. Use caution during the morning commute as fog
   may have led to some slick spots.

- Wintry cold, below normal temperatures continue through early
  next week.

-  Chances for light precipitation, mostly snow, return late
   this afternoon into Wednesday with a passing cold front.
   Behind the front, wind chills of  -10 to -25F look
   increasingly likely for Wednesday night into early Thursday.

-  Details remain uncertain, but additional snow chances
   continue this weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

TODAY: Patchy fog this morning has been occasionally reducing
visibility to below one mile. Fog could lead to isolated slick spots
during the morning commute. Temperatures have fallen into the single
digits to below zero.

We`ll warm up a bit ahead of a cold front moving through the region
later this afternoon through this evening. However, did drop highs a
couple of degrees from the previous forecast as the snowpack should
temper the impact of the WAA. Highs in the 20s and 30s - warmest in
south central SD. As the front moves through, expect some light
precipitation. A mix of precipitation is possible as the front moves
through, mainly at the onset. Once we get slightly deeper saturation
and heavier precipitation, temperatures should drop with wet bulb
temps cooling below zero and switching the p-type to snow. Guidance
this morning is holding on to these slightly warmer temperatures
aloft just a bit longer than yesterday. Any snow accumulations will
be light, less than half an inch, and focused along/north of I-90.
Can`t rule out a light glaze of ice for areas with mixed
precipitation before we transition to snow.

TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY: Initial push of cold air moves in behind the cold
front, and we`ll be a bit breezy because of this and the compressed
SPG tonight into Wednesday. Any snow should taper off through the
overnight hours. Challenge through Wednesday and into Wednesday
night is the non-diurnal temperatures. Temperatures tonight into
Wednesday look to be relatively steady through the day. Breezy winds
will keep wind chills below zero, even during the day Wednesday.

Arctic high pressure slides south Wednesday into early Thursday,
bringing light winds behind another push of CAA. Light winds and
clearing skies help temperatures tank by early Thursday morning.
Lows Wednesday night fall into the teens and single digits below
zero, with wind chills as low as -25 F.

THURSDAY NIGHT ONWARD: Another cold front looks to move through the
area late Thursday night into Friday, which could bring another
chance for light snow. Otherwise, northwesterly flow prevails into
the early part of next week. As mentioned in the previous
discussion, guidance remains quite varied on the details of the
waves passing through, so confidence is low in any snow chances and
potential snow amounts. Below to near average temperatures continue
through the weekend and into early next week with occasional breezy
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 528 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Patchy fog, mainly across river valleys and east of the Buffalo
Ridge, has been dropping visibility briefly down to 1 SM or
less. Fog should mix out through the morning hours. Light
precipitation moves across the area later this afternoon and
into tonight. A mix of precipitation is possible, but most of
the precip should be snow. Any accumulations will be light (less
than half an inch) and should remain north of I-90. Guidance is
handling stratus today and especially behind the cold front
poorly. Precip and stratus may drop to MVFR/IFR categories.

Winds shift from light and generally south to southwesterly this
morning to northwesterly toward the end of the period. Gusts
by Wednesday morning increase to around 20 knots.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SG
AVIATION...SG