172
FXUS63 KFSD 301802 AAA
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1202 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flurries may linger early this afternoon but no additional
  snow accumulation is expected.

- Much colder air prevails this week. Morning low temperatures
  fall into the single digits with nighttime wind chills below
  0F. Coldest looks to be Wednesday night into Thursday morning,
  with wind chills as cold as 20 below.

- Low chances for light snow develop late tonight through Monday
  and again Tuesday night into Wednesday. Impacts look to be
  minor at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

TODAY: With stratus in place over the area, may continue to see
flurries through the morning hours; however, no additional
accumulation is expected. Winds taper down this morning into early
afternoon, with gusts around 25 mph lingering longest along and east
IA/MN State Hwy 60. Patchy blowing and drifting snow may continue to
impact travel. Check travel conditions before you head out.

Otherwise, clouds will be slow to clear today and we`ll see clouds
increase again tonight from the south. Highs today in the teens, not
much different than our temperatures at 3 AM. We may cool a few
degrees into the single digits before daybreak if the stratus can
clear some. Regardless, wind chills this morning are in the single
digits below zero.

TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT: Lows tonight fall into the single digits.
Increased pops and QPF from the NBM for late tonight into Monday
evening, as a short wave moves through NE followed by a trailing
trough axis. Ensemble guidance still shows a low to moderate (less
than 50%) of measurable precipitation from and southeast of a
Yankton to Sioux Falls to Windom line. Probability of a tenth of an
inch or more are very low - less than 15% - so if we see snow,
amounts would be very light. Strongest winds during this time look
to be offset in location from the possible snowfall, so impacts are
expected to be minor. Gusts around 25 mph could lead to some very
patchy blowing/drifting snow at times.

WAA and southerly flow allow for a relatively warmer, but still
colder than average day to start meteorological winter Monday. Lows
Monday night again fall into the single digits either side of zero.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cold front sweeps through the area late
Tuesday into early Wednesday, bringing a push of even colder air.
May see some light snow with the fropa Tuesday evening and into
early Wednesday morning, although guidance varies on the timing and
location of not only the surface front but also forcing aloft. Some
guidance indicates that there may be a brief period of mixed
precipitation; however, most soundings show snow as the prevailing p-
type. With cold surface high pressure swinging in behind this,
colder conditions continue through mid week. This puts highs in the
teens and 20s for most of the area, and Wednesday will feel even
colder with breezy northwesterly winds. Wednesday night lows have
trended 10+ degrees colder in the last 24 hours, now in the single
digits and teens below zero - putting wind chills in the teens to
lower 20s below.

LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND: Mid/upper level trough digs into the
Plains and Southwest toward the end of the week. Guidance is varied
on the details (such as timing/track of any waves), but a more
active pattern may develop across the Plains late next week into the
weekend. Temperatures generally below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1151 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Latest satellite images around 30.18z show MVFR stratus and
associated flurries are slowly eroding as drier air moves in
from the north. Should see ceilings scattered to VFR at all
three TAF sites early to mid afternoon.

This evening, model forecast soundings suggest IFR to MVFR
stratus and fog will quickly redevelop around sunset and linger
into Monday morning. Given the new snowpack, confidence is
increasing in MVFR or lower conditions tonight and lingering
through Monday morning for locations near and east of the I-29
corridor. Could see widespread LIFR to IFR vsby and ceilings but
confidence in coverage was too low to degrade that far at this
time.

Winds will weaken to light and variable this afternoon and
tonight. An approaching disturbance turns winds southerly Monday
morning and brings potential for another round of light snow
near and south of a Yankton to Sioux Falls to Windom line. Any
accumulations should be under 1 inch.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SG
AVIATION...BP