858
FXUS63 KFSD 142107
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
307 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A very warm afternoon as highs climb into the upper 60s to the
  low 80s this afternoon. (warmest through the Missouri River
  Valley). A few record high temperatures will be at risk of
  being tied or broken.

- A Red Flag Warning continues for Gregory County until 6 PM.

- Cooler and mostly dry as we head into the weekend (a few
  sprinkles possible late tonight-early Saturday north of I-90).

- Rain chances return Monday, possibly mixing with or changing
  to snow overnight into Tuesday morning. Areas south of I-90
  are currently favored to receive the most precipitation,though
  exact amounts/location are still uncertain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Today has been another very warm November day. Highs should peak in
the upper 60s and even some low 80s in the south! Average
temperatures for November 14 is the mid 40s. That is a full 20 to
nearly 25 degrees above average. In the previous forecast the
potential for all four climate sites to tie or break records was
mentioned. Unfortunately clouds have been a little thicker today,
which has limited the potential to really smash those records.
However, there is still an hour or so before peak heating is
achieved. Stay tuned for the final results. For reference, the
previous records are:

November 14:
KFSD: 71/1953
KSUX: 73/1939
KHON: 71/1942
KMHE: 75/1953

In addition to the very warm temperatures, mildly breezy and very
dry conditions continue through the early part of this evening. Near
critical Fire Weather conditions exist for areas west of the James
River Valley. Have opted against expanding the Red Flag Warning due
to under performing winds this afternoon. The current warning
remains in good shape through its conclusion at 6pm CST, when
conditions begin to improve. More on this in the Fire Weather
Discussion below.

This evening a low pressure system will be located over central
Canada with a cold front draped south through North Dakota and
eastern Montana. This front is expected to drift south
overnight, turning winds at the surface to the northwest. With
the front comes chances for some high based light sprinkles to
light rain showers along and north of Highway 14. Accumulation,
if any, will be at most a hundredth, and most areas will remain
dry. In addition, a strong push of CAA behind the front will
temper our highs for the weekend. However, they will still
remain well above average in the 50s to low 60s Saturday, and
50s Sunday. Winds on Saturday will be breezy behind the cold
front, gusting 15-20 mph for most locations. Areas at higher
elevation in southwestern Minnesota may tap into the LLJ,
increasing gusts there to 25 mph at times. Winds become light
Saturday evening into Sunday as high pressure moves into the
region.

Early Monday morning we see a mid-to-upper shortwave over the
central Rockies begin to make its way east-northeast into our
region. As it does so it will trigger light rain showers. There
remains significant disagreement in mid-term guidance on storm track
and timing. However, all indicate rain moving in late Friday
morning, and continuing through Tuesday morning. Guidance agrees
that the majority of the precipitation will fall along the southern
Missouri counties into northwestern Iowa, with a medium probability
(50%) of 0.2" of QPF. Elsewhere there is a 50-60% probability
of QPF of 0.1 inches. Current ensemble guidance has been
trending a bit warmer with the overnight temperatures, keeping
most places above freezing except for our northern counties.
This will work to keep precipitation as mostly rain overnight.
That being said, areas at higher elevation in southwestern
Minnesota may see a transition to a wintry mix, to possibly all
snow by early Tuesday morning. Totals are uncertain at this time
and will be highly dependent on how the thermal profiles work
out.

Highs for Monday and Tuesday will be closer to seasonal averages, in
the 40s. Slightly warmer for Wednesday, in the 40s and 50s. Looking
aloft and to the west we see an upper trough digging south over the
western coast. This trough will progress east through the early part
of the week, brining another round of precipitation for the latter
half of the week. Details are very uncertain and confidence in any
specifics at this point is low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1149 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR conditions are expected for the period. Skies today will be
mostly clear but there are some high based clouds flowing in from
the northwest at time of issuance. Clouds will continue to flow in
through the late afternoon and overnight as a weak system skirts
just to the north of our region. Reductions in ceiling heights to
around 150 kft after midnight should not impact flight rules.

Southwesterly winds this afternoon will be on the breezy side
with gusts of 15-20 mph. Areas east of I-29, and portions of
south central South Dakota will have higher gusts of 25-30 mph.
Winds begin to decrease after sunset and become light. A period
of LLWS is possible at KFSD and KSUX as the LLJ increases
overhead after 15.06Z. The stronger winds of the LLJ shifts to
the east by sunrise.

A cold front will move through the region during the early
morning hours Saturday, turning winds to the northwest. Very
light rain showers are possible as a result of the frontal
passage from 15.06Z to 15.12Z for areas along and north of
Highway 14. Very little accumulation is expected and confidence
is too low in showers impacting KHON to include in the TAF.
Clouds clear after daybreak Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Mildly gusty winds, very warm temperatures for November, and low
relative humidity continue into the late afternoon today. Winds have
underperformed somewhat today, with only occasional gusts
greater than 25 mph in south central South Dakota, and
northwestern Iowa. This afternoon have trended the winds down
from NBM guidance a little to better match current conditions.
Winds have also helped to mix down the very warm temperatures
(16-20 C) in the 925 mb level. This worked to warm afternoon
highs into the 70s and even 80s. The air mass through the column
today has remained very dry, allowing minimum relative humidity
values to fall to less than 25% for areas west of the James
River Valley. While these are near critical Fire Weather
conditions, the fact that the winds have underperformed has
prevented the need for an eastward expansion of the Red Flag
Warning this afternoon. Gregory county remains the only county
in a Warning which continues through 6pm CST. Cooler
temperatures and increased surface moisture will keep Fire
Weather conditions at bay for the rest of this weekend and much
of the upcoming week.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for SDZ050.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJP
AVIATION...AJP
FIRE WEATHER...AJP