373
FXUS63 KFSD 040840
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
240 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of drizzle and light rain persist today. Generally, an
  additional 0.50" or less is expected, highest toward US
  Highway 14 and southwestern Minnesota. Rainfall gradually
  diminishes from west to east through Wednesday night.

- Breezy northwesterly wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph expected
  through this evening.

- A hard freeze is expected on both Friday and Saturday morning.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 235 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Forecast remains on track this morning. Temperatures through 2 AM
CST in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Low pressure at the surface and
aloft meanders over MN through this evening. With continued WAA and
PVA along with wrap around moisture keeps rain pivoting from north
to south over the area. We do occasionally lose some of the
saturation through the column, so could see periods of drizzle in
addition to rain and showers. Additional rainfall amounts of less
than a quarter inch expected. Areas toward US Hwy 14 and into
southwestern MN may see more than 0.25", with moderate to high
probability in the ensembles (40-80% chances) and low to moderate
(less than 50%) chances of exceeding 0.50". Rain tapers off from
west to east as the low slowly moves off to the east tonight into
early Thursday.

Tight SPG keeps breezy northwest winds in place through tonight.
Gusts through tonight 25 to 35 mph, slowly tapering down into early
Thursday. Gusts Thursday as high as 25 mph. Cooler conditions
prevail into late week, with skies finally beginning to clear later
Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 110 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Low pressure deepens over IA today, then lifts north into MN and
restrengthens on Wednesday. This keeps the local area under
persistent wrap around warm advection. With plenty of moisture,
occasional rain is expected. The better chance for rain will be east
of highway 81 this afternoon, then east of the James River on
Wednesday as lighter rainfall spreads westward as the low deepens
over MN. Low pressure finally begins to drift east Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night which will bring an end to the
rainfall. Additional rainfall amounts will likely be a half an inch
to an inch over the next two days. Areas west of the James will see
the least amount of rain.

Thursday should see marginally breezy northwest flow help dry out
and scour out most of the cloud cover. However the low level
thermal field is still on the cool side, so highs will generally be
from 45 to 52 degrees.

A nose of surface high pressure builds into the area Friday morning
bringing temperatures down into the upper 20s to lower 30s in most
locations. Will need to keep an eye on the potential for fog given
the very moist soil conditions. If fog can develop with sub-freezing
temperatures, roads could end up slippery in the morning.

Sunday through Tuesday will see a stronger northern stream jet bring
some milder temperatures with very low chances for rainfall. Lows
will likely be from the mid 30s to lower 40s with highs in the mid
50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1040 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Mainly IFR and lower will continue this TAF period. Looking at
satellite imagery, a mainly IFR to LIFR stratus deck continues
to lower this evening with pockets of showers and drizzle. While
these conditions will likely continue into Wednesday, should
start to see some improvements by Wednesday evening/night as
this system pushes eastwards. Otherwise, kept prevailing
showers across most TAF sites with breezy northwesterly winds in
place through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SG
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...05