666
FXUS63 KFSD 141149 CCA
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
549 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near-record to record highs in the upper 60s to around 80 this
  afternoon (warmest through the Missouri River Valley).

- Warm, dry and breezy conditions today will lead to elevated to
  locally critical fire weather conditions. A Red Flag Warning
  will be in effect for Gregory County 10 AM to 6 PM CST.

- Cooler and mostly dry as we head into the weekend (a few
  sprinkles possible late tonight-early Saturday north of I-90).

- Rain chances return Monday, possibly mixing with or changing
  to snow before ending Monday night. Areas south of I-90 are
  currently favored with moderate (40-50%) probabilities of
  rainfall exceeding 0.10", though exact amounts/location are
  still uncertain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

TODAY: Temperatures early this morning are highly elevation and
wind-dependent. As of 2 AM, fully decoupled valley areas with
calm winds have dropped into the lower 30s, while locations with
any notable wind remain in the upper 30s-mid 40s. Temperatures
will remain highly variable through sunrise or shortly after,
but should quickly climb mid-late morning as mixing of the warm
low levels begin to work into the valleys. 925mb temperatures of
18-25C by mid-afternoon peak mixing will support near-record to
record high temperatures in the 70s for most locations, with a
few readings near to just above 80F possible along the Missouri
River Valley. These temperatures are 25-30+ degrees above our
normal highs in the mid-upper 40s for mid-November! Current
record highs listed below could all be broken if the forecast
pans out as expected:

November 14:
KFSD: 71/1953
KSUX: 73/1939
KHON: 71/1939 and 1942
KMHE: 75/1953

With the efficient mixing of the warm/dry low levels, favored
temperatures/dew points toward the warmer/drier ends of the NBM
guidance spectrum, leading to critical relative humidity levels
for areas along/west of the James River Valley this afternoon.
This along with breezy conditions will lead to elevated to
locally critical fire weather conditions this afternoon, with
more details available in the Fire Weather section of this
discussion.

TONIGHT-SUNDAY: Low pressure moving across central-southeast
Canada will drag a cool front southeast across the northern
Plains and Upper Midwest tonight-Saturday. This will bring
temperatures closer to, but still well-above seasonal normals
with weekend highs largely in the 50s. Breezy north winds can be
expected behind the cold front late tonight-Saturday, with high
pressure bringing lighter winds for Sunday. Cannot rule out a
few high-based sprinkles with the passing front later tonight
into early Saturday morning, mainly toward the Highway 14
corridor, though most areas will remain dry.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: A mid-upper level shortwave ejecting out of the
central Rockies will slide east across the area on Monday. The
wave looks to weaken as it encounters upper level ridging over
the Mississippi Valley, but a ribbon of deeper moisture lifting
north ahead of the wave will support areas of light rain as the
wave moves across the region Monday into Monday night. The exact
north-south location of the deeper moisture still varies among
the broader ensemble, though the latest models are forming some
consensus favoring areas south of I-90, with moderate (40-50%)
probabilities of seeing more than 0.10" rainfall over this 24
hour period.

The low level front sags farther south as the wave passes by
Monday night-Tuesday, so cannot rule out a transition to light
snow if precipitation lingers long enough into Monday night.
However, at this time there is too much uncertainty in the low
level thermal profiles and precipitation timing to pinpoint
potential snowfall amounts. High temperature early next week
will be much closer to normal in the upper 30s-mid 40s, though
if substantial snowfall should occur as seen in some model
solutions, temperatures on Tuesday would be impacted.

WEDNESDAY ONWARD: A stronger wave could track into the southern
to perhaps central Plains mid-late next week. Depending on the
strength and track of this wave, it may bring additional chances
for precipitation during the latter half of the week but details
are much lower confidence at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 537 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with winds
presenting the primary minor aviation concerns.

Breezy southwest winds develop midday to early afternoon, with
most areas seeing gusts at or below 20kt. Exception will be in
the higher elevations of southwest Minnesota and south central
South Dakota, where gusts to around 25kt are more likely.

Winds will quickly decouple toward sunset, allowing for a period
of low-level wind shear over northwest Iowa this evening due to
light surface winds topped by a southwest-westerly low level jet
above 1000ft AGL. The low level jet shifts east after 06Z as a
surface cold front sags south, turning southwesterly winds to
the northwest by the end of this TAF period.

The front may produce spotty sprinkles north of I-90 after
15/06Z, however confidence is too low to include in KHON TAF at
this time. No impacts to aviation are expected if sprinkles to
materialize.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 322 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Unseasonably warm, dry and breezy conditions are expected this
afternoon, ahead of a cool front which will drop southeast
across the region tonight.

Most areas will see southwest winds gusting to 20-25 MPH this
afternoon. However, higher elevations of southwest MN and south
central SD (specifically Gregory County) will see occasional
gusts to around 30 MPH. Decent mixing of dry low level air will
lead to high temperatures in the 70s most areas, with minimum
relative humidity (RH) levels this afternoon ranging from near
20% in south-central South Dakota, to 30-40% east of I-29.

Though conditions may be somewhat marginal, the stronger winds
in Gregory County will overlap with critical RH levels around
20% for a few hours during the late morning-afternoon. While
critical RH values less than 25% may extend as far east as the
James River Valley, wind speeds in these areas are currently
expected to remain below critical levels and thus will limit
a Red Flag Warning to Gregory County for now. Winds farther
east will be closely monitored, and the warning could be
extended if stronger winds develop this afternoon.

The critical fire weather conditions look to be short-lived,
as cooler temperatures and higher RH values are expected this
weekend through much of the upcoming week.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
     evening for SDZ050.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JH
AVIATION...JH
FIRE WEATHER...JH