914
FXUS63 KFSD 060948
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
448 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of frost or near-freezing temperatures will again be
  possible early Thursday morning

- Near to above normal temperatures return Thursday into the
  weekend with highs mainly in the 60s to 70s. Rain chances will
  be sparse, with a low chance south of I-90 later Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 417 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Early morning temperatures are a bit tricky as we`ve had an area
of mid-level clouds sag southward into areas near to north of
I-90. Clouds have limited the temperature drop in these areas,
while some favored drainage locations south of the advancing
clouds have dipped into the mid-upper 20s. Given the limited
potential for additional protective action at this late night
hour, did not chase the temperatures with adjustments to the
ongoing frost and freeze headlines.

No significant changes to the forecast in the upcoming days.
Temperatures tonight may again be somewhat dependent on cloud
cover, but lower-mid 30s on a broad scale seem reasonable.

Given the persistent dry air mass, did blend in some HRRR/RAP
and other short-term models to lower afternoon dew points today
and tomorrow. This will produce critical relative humidity
levels Thursday afternoon, as low as 15 to 20 percent. However,
Thursday also looks to be the lightest wind day of the next
several, and with decent green-up in most locations, do not
anticipate significant fire weather concerns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

CURRENTS & TONIGHT: Another mild and breezy day continues! Taking a
look across the area this afternoon, cloud cover continues to filter
in as breezy northwesterly winds persists with gusts between 20-30
mph. While drier conditions this afternoon could promote some
locally elevated fire concerns, greener fuels and milder
temperatures will likely keep any fire danger risk in the low to
moderate categories. Otherwise, the main concern tonight continues
to be the potential for frost/freeze conditions. With the return of
near to sub-freezing temperatures (26-32 degrees) and lighter
surface winds tonight, areas of frost are expected to develop across
most areas especially along and north of I-90. While there is
still some uncertainty with coverage mainly due to 5-10 degree
dew point depression, still thinking the conditions will do just
enough for sensitive plants to be affected. As a result, have
collaborated with neighboring offices to issue both a Freeze
Warning and Frost advisory from 1 am to 7 am CDT. My thoughts
are the warning is in place where confidence is highest on sub-
freezing temperatures and widespread development with small dew
point depressions. The advisory is in place for areas where
patchy to scattered areas of frost are possible. With all this
in mind, make sure to cover/bring in any sensitive vegetation!

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: Looking into the midweek, lingering cold air
advection (CAA) and northwesterly surface winds will keep the milder
stretch going through at least Wednesday night with highs in the low
to upper 50s and overnight lows in the low to mid 30s. Similar to
tonight, we could see additional chances for frost by Thursday
morning. However, border-line temperatures and a higher dew point
depression (8-12 degrees) will likely make coverage more patchy than
scattered with the main focus being along our River Valleys. By
Thursday, we`ll start to trend warmer as a weakening ridge and a
return to southwesterly to westerly flow brings an influx of warmer
air to the area. This will lead to beautiful conditions as highs
peak in the 60s to low 70s for the day with lighter winds.

THE WEEKEND ONWARDS: Heading into the extended period, an active
pattern will once again return as continuous northwesterly flow
aloft helps usher in multiple waves through our area. The strongest
of which looks to arrive between Saturday to Sunday. While there is
still some variability among long-range guidance, this still looks
like our best chances (20%-30%) for areas along and south of I-90 to
see rain. This is further agreed upon within ensemble guidance with
most members showing a 30%-60% chance for at least measurable
precipitation. Lastly, we`ll continue our warming trend through
Monday with highs mainly in the 60s to low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for this period. Mid to high
level clouds will also prevail with a period of lower ceilings mid
morning to early afternoon around 5000 ft AGL. Ceilings improve as
clouds clear out in the late afternoon.

Overnight winds will be light and variable. After sunrise winds
become northwesterly and gradually increase. Afternoon gusts of 17-
22 kts will be widespread across the region. Winds decrease after
sunset becoming light and variable near the end of the period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Frost Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for SDZ050-063>071.
     Freeze Warning until 7 AM CDT this morning for SDZ038>040-
     052>062.
MN...Frost Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for MNZ090.
     Freeze Warning until 7 AM CDT this morning for MNZ071-072-080-
     081-089-097-098.
IA...Frost Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for IAZ001>003-
     012>014-020>022.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JH
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...AJP