746
FXUS63 KFSD 031141
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
541 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drizzle continues today mainly west of I-29, with rain
  expanding over areas east of I-29. Light to moderate showers
  may stretch back as far as the James River this evening and
  tonight.

- Northwesterly winds remain breezy Tuesday and Wednesday with
  gusts between 30-40 mph expected. Locally higher gusts around
  45 mph possible across south central SD Tuesday.

- Cool and dreary conditions continue through Wednesday with
  greater rain coverage expected through the day. Rain finally
  moves east by Thursday. Additional rainfall less than an inch
  through Thursday night. Greatest totals generally north and
  east of a Huron to Salem to Sioux City line.

- Some hard freeze potential builds for the end of the work week
  ahead of a clipper system that could bring rain (and maybe a
  snowflake) to the area into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 247 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

No significant changes to the forecast this morning. Patchy drizzle
continues, with light rain showers slowly moving north across
northwestern IA and northeastern NE. Focus of the rain today remains
near and east of I-29 with the better saturation and PVA. Elsewhere,
soundings continue to show periods of drizzle to light showers into
the afternoon/evening. Still expect coverage of rain to increase
tonight into Wednesday with the mid/upper level low remaining just
to our east advecting numerous waves through the pattern and
increasing moisture. Troughing and rain finally pulls east Thursday.

Additional rainfall amounts generally 0.25" to 0.75" across the area
through Thursday night, lowest for south central SD and increasing
as you move north and east. Areas near and north of US Hwy 14 as
well as east of Sioux City to Spencer have at least a 50% chances of
seeing totals over an inch through Thursday night.

Northwest winds remain breezy through Wednesday, with the strongest
winds today. Thirty to 40 mph gusts today with some gusts in south
central SD around 45 mph. Gusts closer to 25-35 mph Wednesday, as
high as 40 mph in south central SD.

Warmest temperatures today as we remain steady or slowly fall during
the day. Highs in the 40s and 50s through mid week. Lows fall into
the mid/upper 30s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1203 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

THIS AFTERNOON: A surface front continues to push eastward through
the Tri-State area early this afternoon.  Clearing ahead of this
front all the way northwards towards Highway 14 has allowed
MLCAPE values to push as high as 500-800 J/KG which will allow
for low- topped convection to form. While the risks for any
significant hail/wind are low, some concerns continue for the
potential of stretching updraft and potential funnel/tornado
development in a narrow corridor of the CWA. With 0-3km MLCAPE
near 300-500 J/KG, 0-1 km helicity does rise to nearly 150-200
M2/S2 depending on the degree of SE surface winds near the
boundary. Localized VGP values surge past 0.5 M/S2, maximized
south of I-90 towards the MO River and into the Highway 20
corridor of NW Iowa through 5pm.

TONIGHT: The passage of the front, and associated mid-lvl dry slot,
will bring an end to the precipitation in most locations. However
the aforementioned frontal boundary will keep persistent shower and
isolated thunderstorms in the far southeastern CWA into the
early overnight hours. As low-lvl moisture returns from the NW
overnight, saturation depth may increase enough for occasional
spits to drizzle by daybreak. NW winds will also increase
through the region behind this boundary with the latest CAMS
indicating potential for 40 mph gust at times and localized
higher gusts in the higher MO River valley areas.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: Weak low-lvl lift persists through Tuesday, but
I`m not anticipating widespread rain at this point. Soundings
suggest widespread low-stratus and even the potential for
occasional drizzle into the afternoon. By Tuesday evening and
night, deeper moisture advects back north as a weak wave pivots
into the Mid-Mo River valley bringing persistent and more
widespread rain risks into the Tri-state area overnight.

Wednesday continues to look like a very cool and wet day as the
merger of several upper waves into a larger upper trough over the
Plains, aids in developing a large TROWAL across Minnesota and into
the eastern Dakotas.  Depending on the wobble of the upper trough,
mostly light precipitation may be near continuous through the day on
Wednesday as breezy to gusty northwest winds continue.  Expect
minimal temperature rises both days, with highs in the 40s to
lower 50s likely.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY: A brief period of dry conditions returns for the
end of the week as mid-lvl ridging moves into the Plains. Cooler
Canadian high pressure sinks southward into Friday, allowing the
potential for a widespread frost to a hard freeze Friday and
Saturday mornings.

The next risk for precipitation won`t arrive until Saturday
into Sunday as a fast moving clipper dives southeast. At this
point precipitation may stay in the form of liquid, but with
H850 temperatures falling below zero there might be a non-zero
risk for a few snowflakes if precipitation arrives overnight.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 535 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

MVFR to IFR conditions through the period, with low stratus.
Occasional LIFR ceilings expected. Patchy drizzle this morning
into the afternoon, with more bonafide showers across
northwestern IA and northeastern NE. Showers/rain expands west
into tonight, with more isolated to scattered activity toward
the James River. Coverage continues to expand into early
Wednesday morning. Drizzle and rain may reduce visibility into
the IFR category at times.

Breezy northwesterly winds prevail through the period. During
the day, gusts 25-30 knots anticipated. Winds remain breezy but
taper down slightly overnight, before increasing again at the
end of the TAF period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SG
DISCUSSION...Dux
AVIATION...SG