032
FXUS63 KFSD 010000
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
700 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of light showers expected this evening into the
  overnight, mainly west of I-29 with light accumulations.

- Periods of light to moderate rain will lift through the area
  from Sunday night into Monday. Ensemble guidance continues
  shows moderate to high confidence in 1 inch amounts west of
  I-29. Localized ponding will be possible in low-lying spots.

- An active pattern aloft will lead to additional showers on
  Tuesday and Wednesday. Any resulting accumulations will be
  light.

- Breezy to gusty winds return on Monday and Tuesday with gusts
  between 30-40 mph expected at times. Locally higher gusts will
  be possible across southcentral SD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

CURRENTS & TONIGHT: Taking a look across the area, the dreary and
wet conditions persists as lingering showers gradually lifting
through the Highway-14 corridor this afternoon and areas of fog
continue to erode. While a brief lull in activity could develop
through the late afternoon hours, short-range guidance continues to
show a few additional showers developing by early evening
mainly west of highway-81 as another wave swings through. Any
resulting accumulations would be light at best. Lastly, with
overcast skies likely continuing through the evening hours;
decided to slightly increased overnight lows by blending in some
of the CONSshort resulting in temperatures in the low to mid
50s with the warmest conditions along our River Valleys.

SUNDAY-TUESDAY: Not many forecast changes expected into Sunday as
increasing warm air advection (WAA) aloft keeps us locked into the
overcast and dreary conditions for most of the day. While most areas
should remain dry during the day, a few durnally-driven sprinkles to
light showers could develop in the lower cloud bases during the
afternoon with limited accumulations. From here, the focus continues
to be on the increased rain chances from Sunday night into Monday.
Looking aloft, most of our rain chances (70%-100%) will be in
response to a developing Colorado Low lifting from the Nebraska
Panhandle into central and eastern SoDak throughout the day.
Widespread rain is expected as increase lift in the warm air
advective wing leads to pockets of light to moderate rain for the
first half of the day. From here, we`ll likely lose mid-level
saturation during the afternoon hours as the dry slot progresses
through the area. With this in mind, any lingering activity will
begin to dissipate as it lifts northeastwards.

A few isolated thunderstorms can`t be completely rule out across
northwestern IA giving the low CAPE/high shear environment and
increased lift ahead of the triple point. However, confidence
continues to decrease in any stronger activity mainly due to
afternoon development across eastern Nebraska and northwestern
Missouri effectively cutting off our moisture pool. Otherwise,
additional precipitation chances will return from Monday night into
Tuesday morning as the cold front swings through. Shifting gears to
amounts, ensemble guidance continues to show moderate to high
confidence (60%-80%) in at least 1 inch of QPF mainly along and west
of I-29 with lesser amounts (0.50" of an inch or less) elsewhere.
With trends continue to pull the highest amounts towards central SD
with the deformation zone/warm-front, wouldn`t be surprised if QPF
amounts continue to trend downwards and northwestwards moving
forward especially as more short-range guidance gets ingested into
the NBM QPF. Nonetheless, our flash flood risk continues to look low
with mainly concern being localized ponding in low-lying areas.
Lastly, with a tightening SPG on both Monday and Tuesday; expect
surface winds to strengthen with gust between 30-40 mph expected on
both day.

WEDNESDAY ONWARDS: Heading into the extended period, an active
pattern continues aloft with medium-range guidance struggling to
resolve the location of the upper-level low. While confidence is
low, can`t rule out some wrap around showers throughout the day on
Wednesday especially east of I-29. Quieter conditions will return by
Thursday as mid-level ridging progresses through the area. This
along with the return mid-level warm air advection (WAA) should lead
to slightly warmer temperatures heading into the weekend with highs
increase from the low to mid 50s by Wednesday into the low to mid
60s by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 658 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Current VFR ceilings and visibilities are expected to slowly degrade
as the stratus deck continues to thicken from the top down this
evening. In addition to lowering stratus ensemble guidance indicates
a 60-70% probability of patchy fog development with visibilities
dropping to 2 miles or less, especially for areas east of Highway
81. Around midnight expect widespread conditions of MVFR that will
continue to degrade down to IFR overnight. Low stratus and fog are
slow to lift Sunday morning and may linger into the late morning.
Even so, conditions will only improve slightly to MVFR for the
remainder of the period.

Current radar shows light echos over southeastern South Dakota.
Expect these light showers to move north through the evening and
overnight, dissipating around daybreak. Accumulation will be very
light, a trace to a couple hundredths. Southerly winds will remain
on the breezy side now through the overnight. Gusts of 15-20 kts are
expected for areas west of I-29, with gusts of 15 kts or less to the
east. Winds will increase with daytime heating with widespread
afternoon gusts of 15-25 kts. Strongest winds expected over central
South Dakota. Winds will remain breezy through the end of the
period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...AJP