828
FXUS63 KFSD 011740
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1140 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wintry cold continues through the upcoming week. Morning low
  temperatures fall into the single digits with nighttime wind
  chills below zero.

- Scattered light snow may bring minor travel impacts south of
  I-90 toward US Highway 20 this morning through afternoon. High
  confidence that most locations will see under a half inch of
  new snow.

- Chances for light snow develop again Tuesday night into
  Wednesday with a passing cold front. Behind the front, wind
  chills of -10 to - 25F look increasingly likely for Wednesday
  night into early Thursday.

- Details remain uncertain, but additional snow chances continue
  into the weekend. Regardless colder temperatures prevail.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

TODAY-TONIGHT: Haven`t seen much in the way of fog develop this
morning, although some of the hi-res guidance continues to show the
potential for some through the valleys and along the Buffalo Ridge.
Given trends, think that stratus and some patchy flurries prevail
through the morning over any fog development, but can`t entirely
rule out some isolated fog. Snow chances later this morning and into
the afternoon have trended a bit further to the south, so did trend
closer to US Hwy 20. Amounts remain less than half an inch.

Think that we`ll see stratus stick around much of the day especially
east of I-29 so remained a bit more pessimistic with highs, keeping
us in the teens and 20s. Southerly winds this afternoon may gust
around 20 mph. Winds become light tonight with surface high pressure
moving into the area. Stratus should clear out, or at least diminish
in coverage, with lows tonight in the single digits either side of
0F. We might see a few locations stay a bit warmer if stratus
redevelops or lingers later into tonight. HREF and some hi-res
guidance show the potential for fog to develop again tonight, but
confidence is low.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: A relatively warmer day expected Tuesday with
southerly flow and increased WAA. Robust cold front moves through
the northern and central Plains later in the afternoon into the
evening. Flurries to light snow are possible as the front moves
through, with guidance trending up a smidge in QPF and a bit faster.
A handful of 01.00z CAMs show some light snow moving into the US Hwy
14 corridor by the mid/late afternoon hours, moving east into
Tuesday night. Depending on how quickly the front moves through and
if precipitation is slightly preceding it, can`t rule out some
mixed precip during the afternoon and early evening, especially if
we warm into the 30s west of the James. Much colder air and stronger
winds move in behind the front. If we see new light snow
Tuesday/Tuesday night, strong winds may lead to some patchy blowing
snow for the Wednesday morning commute. Increased pops and QPF a bit
from the NBM. With the quick moving front, amounts should remain
light.

With the strongest push of CAA through the day on Wednesday, we`ll
see much colder temperatures Wednesday night into Thursday as Arctic
high pressure slides in. Lows Wednesday night look to be the coldest
of the week, falling into the single digits and teens below zero.
Even with light winds, wind chills may plummet to around 20 to 25
below 0F.

LATE WEEK ONWARD: Ridging breaks down over the Pacific, taking us
from more northwesterly flow to zonal flow. We`ll see a few
shortwaves move through the pattern with a stronger wave Saturday.
Guidance has trended into a bit more agreement, so started trending
pops up slightly for Saturday. A lot can and will still change, so
keep an eye on the forecast if you have travel plans across the
Plains and Upper Midwest. Regardless of snow chances, temperatures
remain near to below average late week and through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1139 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Patchy MVFR conditions will remain possible into the afternoon,
with the better chances over parts of northwest IA. Otherwise
VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SG
AVIATION...08