528
FXUS63 KFSD 181926
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
126 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extensive clouds continue into Wednesday, with some potential
  for fog overnight.

- An extended period of dry weather is now expected through the
  upcoming weekend, and potentially longer.

- Temperatures are now favored to remain near or above normal
  through the upcoming weekend, with some potential for 60s by
  this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 124 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

THIS AFTERNOON: Extensive stratus remain in place across the Tri-
State area, holding temperatures below normal in the upper 30s to
lower 40s.  Some breaks in the clouds are possible through sunset,
but may be brief.

TONIGHT: Stratus will be extensive across the region heading into
the overnight hours. As we move past midnight, some erosion of
the stratus is likely from west to east as mid-upr clouds
increase. Guidance indicating that stratus further east may
begin to settle downward after sunset, producing reduced
visibilities in areas especially east of I- 29. Further west, if
stratus clears after midnight, additional radiational cooling
induced fog may develop west of the James River into central
South Dakota. At this point, not expecting widespread dense fog,
but a few locations may drop below 1 mile.

WEDNESDAY: Mid-lvl flow turns zonal on Wednesday, allowing
southwesterly surface flow to return, and pushing stratus east
during the day. The result will be temperatures climbing 5 to
10 degrees above normal, with 60s likely in south central South
Dakota.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: A front will  pass through the region by Thursday
morning with just a bit of increased mid-upr clouds.  A very quiet
end of the week is likely as high pressure moves through the
Northern Plains. Temperatures may dip a couple degrees both days,
but are still expected to remain 5+ degrees above normal.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY:  As a cut-off low develops over the southwestern
US, warm zonal flow will prevail further north.  This will bring an
extended period of warm and dry weather through the weekend and into
next week.  Temperatures Saturday through Monday climb into the 50s
and 60s which will be 10+ degrees above normal.  The next risk for
any rainfall may hold off until late Tuesday and Wednesday, but are
highly dependent on the track of the ejecting southwest low.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1119 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

IFR to MVFR ceilings will persist through the afternoon hours. A
few short breaks may develop at times, briefly allowing skies to
scatter, however these should be short lived.

Stratus may begin to expand after sunset with IFR to MVFR
ceilings expected to continue. Slightly reduced visibility over
northwest Iowa may expand westward and northwestward overnight
with localized potential for 1 mile or lower visibility, but
more widespread risks for 3-6SM visibility.

Winds remain light through the overnight hours.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dux
AVIATION...Dux