545
FXUS63 KFSD 161114
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
614 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and cooler today and tomorrow as high pressure settles
  across the region. Daily highs will top out in the 70s.

- Increasing heat and humidity Friday will allow for a return to
  shower and thunderstorm chances.

- Gradual warming trend this weekend into early next week with
  periodic precipitation chances (20-30 percent).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

TODAY: Scattered, light post frontal showers will continue through
this afternoon. At the surface high pressure will begin to push in
from the northwest, clearing out showers for the afternoon. Breezy
northerly winds will result in a noticeable cool down for
today. Highs will only climb into the mid 60s to 70s. Lows will
be in the 50s.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: Thursday, flow aloft will become quasi-zonal while
the surface high pressure moves over the region. Dry but cool
conditions will prevail. Highs will climb into the 70s with lows in
the 50s. By Friday the high pressure will be to our east and winds
will become southerly, ushering in warmer and moister air. Highs
will warm into the upper 70s to 80s with lows in the 60s.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: Friday night a fast moving short waves work
through the quasi-zonal flow in the mid levels. This waves will meet
with increasing instability, shear and mid level lapse rates. As
mentioned in the previous discussion, the environment looks fairly
well capped and so convection would most likely be elevated.
Main threats would be large hail and damaging wind gusts.
Another wave keeps showers in the forecast for Saturday, and
another for Sunday. Highs for both days will be in the 80s and
lows will be in the 60s.

MONDAY-AND-BEYOND: Quasi-zonal flow aloft moves to the east as a
shallow ridge builds in for Monday. Dry and warm conditions will
persist through the first half of next week. Highs will be in the
80s and 90s with lows in the 60s. By the second half of next week
thunderstorm chances will return again.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 614 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Current conditions are a mix of MVFR to LIFR, thanks to a stratus
deck that is moving into the region from the northwest. Expect this
stratus to keep ceilings low for the next few hours before gradually
improving this afternoon from northwest to southeast.

Some light isolated to scattered showers are possible this morning.
But confidence in showers impacting any TAF sites was too low to
include.

Winds will be northerly to northwesterly and breezy at 12-16kts with
gusts to 20 kts. Winds gradually decrease this evening becoming
light and variable.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJP
AVIATION...AJP