274
FXUS63 KFSD 160156
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
856 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Weak showers are forming along a cold front as it passes
  through the region, mostly along and east of I-29. Severe
  weather is not expected but a few rumbles of thunder are
  possible.

- Patchy fog is possible early Sunday morning, mostly along
  water ways and low areas. Fog should burn off by mid-morning.

- A front will bring a risk for isolated to scattered severe
  thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. If storms develop,
  risk of 2" hail and 60 mph winds will be possible.

- An active weather pattern will keep intermittent thunderstorm
  chances in the forecast from Tuesday to Thursday. With a
  conditional risk for severe storms Tuesday afternoon and
  evening.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 854 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Few changes to the forecast this cycle. Showers forming along the
cold front as it passes (mostly along and east of I-29 as of 8:45 pm
CDT) are expected to remain light. Severe weather is not anticipated
but a few rumbles of thunder are possible. Showers will dissipate
and clouds will break up and flow east out of the region through the
remainder of this evening. A brief period of clear skies may allow
for surface temperatures to fall to or near the dew points. Should
this happen patchy dense fog may result, mostly in low areas and
along water ways. Any fog that develops should burn off by mid-
Sunday morning. Around sunrise Sunday a weak mid-level wave moves in
from the west, resulting in scattered to broken upper level clouds.
No precipitation is expected and clouds should break up through the
afternoon. Mostly sunny skies will prevail, though we will still see
a milky haze from wildfire smoke aloft. Light, northerly winds will
keep highs on the cool side of climatology, in the upper 70s with a
few 80s sprinkled in.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms return Monday. For more
information on storms, please see the DISCUSSION below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 124 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

THIS AFTERNOON: Mid-lvl vorticity continues to lift northeast
through the Tri-state area early this afternoon. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms tied to this wave will continue to slide east
northeast into the afternoon hours.  Most of the strongest activity
has been tied to the NW quadrant of the wave, aligned with an
approaching cool front  moving in from the northwest. Some of the
convection has produced rainfall rates greater than 3-4" per hour,
with radar estimates suggesting 2-4" of rain has fallen in isolated
pockets in Miner county. Convection risks will remain focused mostly
on heavy rain this afternoon, though if sufficient clearing can
develop in SW Minnesota and NW Iowa, then a small risk of 50 mph
winds, small hail, and also brief funnels could be possible given
the weak and chaotic surface flow. The heavy rain risk will persist
in any thunderstorm given deep warm cloud layer, and PWATs above the
90th percentile of climatology.

TONIGHT: The front clears the CWA by late evening, with skies
briefly clearing.  Those skies may only stay clear for a short
duration of time as increasing mid-uper forcing could bring high lvl
clouds back into the region.  If these clouds don`t develop, then
overnight lows could fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s, inducing
some fog potential.

SUNDAY: A dry day is anticipated for Sunday as winds remain
northerly.  Temperatures rise into the lower 80s in most locations,
with a bit of mid-high lvl cloud cover in the region through the day
and diurnal CU in the afternoon.

MONDAY: Northwesterly flow will persist into the new work week
and is expected to bring a frontal boundary into the Dakotas on
Monday. An initial surge of warm advection Sunday night into
Monday could bring scattered showers and thunderstorms eastward
out of central South Dakota/Nebraska by daybreak. This activity
may slowly fade through the morning allowing stronger diurnal
heating to occur. The frontal boundary arriving in the afternoon
will then be watched for convection risks. Should convergence
along this boundary be strong enough to overcome lingering
inhibition, isolated to scattered storms may develop by 3-5pm as
soundings show a relatively uncapped environment through
eastern SODAK. Upwards of 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE ahead of the
boundary, may combine with modest effective shear approaching 35
knots to help produce a few severe storms with 2" hail and 60
mph wind potential. The overall coverage of storms remain most
uncertain given unknown impacts of morning clouds.

TUESDAY: Monday`s convection may dictate the placement of the
frontal boundary by Tuesday. Some guidance pushes the front and
boundary layer moisture south of the CWA, with other models holding
the effective boundary closer to I-90. The NW flow will likely bring
another wave into the Plains in the afternoon, which could trigger
isolated to scattered strong late afternoon and evening storms once
again.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: With the mid-lvl ridge centered back over the Four
Corners region we`ll continue to see northwesterly flow aloft
through the Plains for the second half of the week. This problematic
flow pattern will keep a rain risk into the region Wednesday and
potentially Thursday, before the ridge sharpens and pushes more
stable air into the Plains into next weekend. Expect lower than
typical confidence in specific forecast details during the middle of
the week.  Temperatures through the second half of the week will run
near to slightly below their seasonal normals which are now in the
lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the period. Lingering
light showers over northwest Iowa will end over the next hour or
two. Clouds will thin and flow out through the early part of the
evening. Winds will be light and variable. Should skies clear long
enough surface temperatures could fall to at or near dew
points, resulting in patchy dense fog. Reductions in visibility
due to fog will be most likely in low areas and along water
ways. Any fog should burn off by mid-morning Sunday.

Around sunrise Sunday scattered to broken high level clouds are
expected to move in from the west, the result of a weak mid-level
wave. These will flow east through the morning. Skies become mostly
clear for the afternoon. Winds will become northerly at 5-10 mph
with light gusts around 15 mph.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AJP
DISCUSSION...Dux
AVIATION...AJP