416
FXUS63 KFSD 070355
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1055 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs in the 80s to lower 90s are expected for the
  weekend.Southeast winds will remain breezy with gusts up to
  25-35 mph over central South Dakota and decreasing with
  eastern extent.

- An upper level low will bring chances (20-60%) for showers and
  thunderstorms to the area over the weekend. An isolated storm
  is possible near and south of highway-20 today. Coverage will
  increase to scattered along and east of I-29 on Sunday.
  Severe storms are not expected.

- Temperatures heat up this weekend into next week. There is a
  moderate chance (40-90%) of highs exceeding 90F Tuesday and
  Wednesday, with the highest probabilities coming on Tuesday.
  Be prepared to enact any heat related safety measures.

- Severe storm chances look to make a return to the region on
  Tuesday and Wednesday. Details remain uncertain so continue
  to keep up to date with the latest forecast for the most up to
  date information.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 838 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Taking a look across the area, the forecast remains on track
with warm and quiet conditions continuing this evening with
mostly clear skies. Besides monitoring if a few spotty showers
can make their way into the Missouri River Valley, still thinking
most areas should remain quiet through the night. Otherwise,
cloud cover should increase from southwest to northwest overnight
as a mid-level wave lifts out of the central plains bringing
increasing rain chances (30%-50%). While a few spotty showers
will be possible by mid to late morning on Sunday, the bulk of
the activity should occur during the afternoon to evening hours
as scattered showers and thunderstorms lift into areas along and
east of I-29.

While severe weather is not expected mainly due to a lack of
shear, stronger storms could produce frequent lightning, smaller
hail, and pockets of moderate to heavy rain mainly along and
east of I-29. Otherwise, should see most of this activity lift
out of the area by late evening. While there is still some
potential for additional showers by Sunday night with another
wave, confidence continues to decrease in the severe risk given
the time of day and waning instability. Current thoughts are any
lingering activity will be gradually weakening as it approaches
northeastern SD. While some pockets of moderate rain can`t be
completely ruled out across the Highway-14 corridor, not expecting
any thing severe at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Quiet conditions persist this afternoon along with high temperatures
that have warmed to 80s to low 90s. A weak upper level low currently
spinning over the southern Plains will begin to advect northwards
this afternoon. The main forcing from this wave will remain south of
the forecast area today but could see an isolated shower or storm
develop near and south of highway-20 this afternoon and evening.
Deep layer shear will be weak at 10 knots or less so severe storms
are not expected. Low temperatures will fall to the 60s overnight.
Moistening dew points overnight could result in some patchy fog
across the area, most likely in river valley`s.

The weak upper level wave will advect northwards on Sunday. This
wave will result in an increase in cloud cover and slightly cooler
high temperatures across the area. High temperatures look to warm to
the 80s to touching 90F toward central South Dakota. Depending on
how thick the cloud cover gets and the timing of rain with it, some
locations may see high temperatures remain in the upper 70s. Chances
(20-60%) for showers and storms will return with this wave tomorrow
afternoon and evening. As of now, the bulk of the showers and storms
look to track northwards for locations along and east of I-29.
Instability will be sufficient at or above 1,000 J/kg. However, deep
layer shear will remain weak at 10 knots or less. Thus, severe
weather is not expected. Given the more scattered nature of the
storms, rainfall amounts are not expected to be much with most
locations receiving a a few hundredths to a tenth or two of an inch.
Isolated higher amounts are possible where storms track over the
same area. Chances for rain will be waning through the evening hours
as the boundary layer begins to stabilize, preventing and deeper
mixing from initiating new storms. There could be a second round of
storms that may track eastwards into the area from the western
Dakota`s Sunday night. As of now, think that this second round of
storms will mainly stay off to the north and west of the forecast
area where the better vertical shear will lie. If these storms were
to hold together as they push into the area, they will likely be on
a weakening trend due to the weak vertical shear in place. Perhaps
gusty winds could accompany the storms before they completely die
out.

Monday looks to be quiet during the daylight hours as the wave
responsible for Sunday`s storms lifts into Canada. There could be
another round of showers and storms Monday evening but this will be
dependent on if the cap can be broken. Latest ensembles show
relatively high probabilities between 40-80% that the cap remains
stronger (more negative) than -25 J/kg. Tough to say if temperatures
could warm enough to overcome the cap let alone reach convective
temperatures. If the cap could be broken, then low end severe storms
would be possible as vertical shear begins to strengthen aloft. If
the cap remains strong, then no storms and little rain would be on
the table. Something to keep an eye on going forward.

Attention then turns to Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. Medium
range guidance is in agreement in a strong, longer-wave upper level
trough digging into the Northern Plains during this period of time.
Before diving into storm chances, high temperatures look to be hot
across the area with highs warming into the 90s and potentially
touching 100F to 101F on Tuesday. The ensembles support this as they
show moderate to high probabilities (50-90%) for high temperatures
to exceed 90F on Tuesday. These same probabilities drop a bit
to a 40- 70% chance on Wednesday. These hot temperatures will
coincide with more humid conditions as dew points moisten to the
60s and 70s. The hot and humid conditions will result in areas
of moderate to major heat risk. If you will be out and about on
either of these days, please follow the necessary safety precautions
to stay safe in the heat.

Thunderstorms look to persist across the area as the upper level
wave begins to eject into the Northern Plains on Tuesday. With
southwest flow over the Rockies, lee cyclogenesis will occur,
tightening low level pressure gradients and strengthening the low
level jet (LLJ). This will increase vertical shear profiles across
the region. Instability will be more than sufficient with the
previously mentioned hot and humid conditions in place. Thus, strong
to severe storms will be possible. As of now, Tuesday evening and
night looks to be the main time period for severe weather due to the
strengthening LLJ. The main wave finally ejects on Wednesday,
continuing severe storm chances. If current model trends hold,
Wednesday could see the strongest storms between both days as an
exit region of an upper jet looks to push into the Northern Plains.
While the deterministic models, ensembles, and clusters support this
exit region, details about how this wave tracks remain a bit
uncertain. Mesoscale details are also much more uncertain this far
out. Especially considering that Wednesday`s storm potential will be
dependent on how Tuesday`s storms pan out. Latest machine learning
(ML) models give a little bit more clarity into this potential.
Currently, the bulk of the ML models have the highest chances for
severe storms in North Dakota on Tuesday and then across parts of
Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa on Wednesday. Details can still
change over the next couple of days but continue to monitor the
latest forecast for the most up to date information.

Chances for rain could persist through the rest of the week but this
will depend on how the upper level wave evolves and if low level
moisture gets pushed south of the area. High temperatures look to
fall back closer to seasonable in the upper 70s to 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

VFR conditions through the first half of Sunday then a mix of
VFR to MVFR cigs are expected by Sunday afternoon as the chances
for showers and thunderstorms increase. Ended up putting PROB30s
in both KFSD and KSUX with -TSRA being the main concern through
early evening as most of this activity lift through areas east
of I-29. Otherwise, MVFR and potentially IFR cigs will be
possible by late evening behind the previously mention activity.
Lastly, surface winds will remain out of the southeast with
periodic breeziness to end the TAF period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...05
DISCUSSION...Meyers
AVIATION...05