344
FXUS63 KFSD 252016
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
216 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong winds are expected to persist through the overnight
  hours. Peak winds may reach near or above 60 mph in a few
  locations, with widespread potential for 50 mph winds.

- Snow will spread southeast through the CWA late this
  afternoon and evening. North of I-90, expect visibility down
  to one half mile briefly. Along and north of HWY 14 short
  lived near blizzard conditions may be possible.

- Greatest snow totals of 1-3 inches expected along Highway 14
  and into SW Minnesota, with amounts of a trace to 1"
  elsewhere. Plan on briefly difficult travel north of I-90.

- Travel after Thanksgiving now likely impacted by growing
  potential for a winter storm Friday through Saturday.
  Confidence in at least moderate snow accumulations is growing.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

THIS AFTERNOON and TONIGHT: Compact upper low spinning across the
Dakotas early this afternoon continues to bring a combination of
high winds, rain/snow, and areas of persistent  low visibility and
snow.  We`ve already had several reports of 60+ mph winds through
the MO River valley, and with the track of the upper low eastward
this evening, further expansion of high wind gusts of 50+ mph will
be likely through the Tri-State area into the overnight hours. The
highest gusts may focused along the higher terrain areas of the MO
River valley, but also in the highest elevations of the Buffalo
Ridge where 60+ mph gusts may be possible.

Deformation band of snow continues to pivot into central South
Dakota early this afternoon, and will continue to track eastward
through the afternoon and early evening.  The southern reach of this
snow remains uncertain, but should at least graze the Missouri River
counties by this evening.  While the heaviest snow this afternoon
has been focused just north of the CWA, expect the potential for at
least 1-3 hours of moderate snow rates, but also strong wind gusts
to move through areas north of I-90, but especially along Highway 14
and into SW Minnesota into early evening. Accumulations of 1 to 3"
of snow will be possible, with lesser amounts toward I-90. Brief
period of near blizzard conditions may be possible, but the overall
longevity of the snow, wetness of the snow, and limitation of poor
visibility just in falling snow, leads me to stay with the winter
weather advisories.  Greater potential for blowing snow and reduced
visibility remains possible in SW Minnesota, so will continue
winter storm warning headlines. With the influx of colder air
arriving, expect bridges and overpasses to ice up first.

WEDNESDAY: Winds will gradually subside after midnight, but are
still expected to remain quite gusty into Wednesday morning.
Eventually though, the influence of high pressure will weaken winds
by late in the day with temperatures rising into the upper 20s to
lower 30s.

THANKSGIVING:  High pressure remains in control of the region on
Thanksgiving, with light winds through the day. Some early
morning fog potential may be possible through mid-morning.
Otherwise, temperatures rise into the middle to upper 20s in
many areas, with low 30s near the Missouri River.

FRIDAY-MONDAY:  Confidence is growing in potential high impact
travel weather developing as early as mid-day Friday and continuing
through Saturday night for many in the region.  By early Friday,
we`ll begin to watch an open wave exit the Pacific Northwest and
move into the Rockies. Further east, a narrow elevated warm front
will begin to develop from southwest North Dakota into northwestern
Iowa, with increasing warm advection through the day along this
boundary. 40-50 knots of 850 mb flow into this boundary will help
create an intense frontal band near 850mb, with some hints of
700:600 mb instability by mid-afternoon overhead.  The presence of
mid-lvl vorticity advection overhead and increasing upper divergence
from developing upper jet would support moderate snow rates in a
narrow corridor. The biggest question lingering is where this band
establishes itself as some N-S variance continues today.

This initial wave may serve as a stage setter for a deeper wave
moving into the Plains by Friday, establishing the positioning of
the elevated baroclinic zone and setting the region up for a much
larger winter weather impact through the day Saturday.  Latest
deterministic and ensemble data has come into better alignment
pushing the upper trough through the Rockies and then moving it
through the Plains during the day.  The alignment of the trough
(slightly positive, turning negative) would support deep meridional
moisture transport and warm advection through the day Saturday
through the Upper Midwest, with the right entrance region of the
upper jet (and nearly a coupled jet structure from southern jet)
supporting the development of more intense precipitation across a
larger area.

Unlike Monday, ensembles are in much better overall agreement
pushing the probabilities of >3" over 60-70%, and probabilities of
6" 20-30% in a large area of the Tri-State area.  It should be noted
that ensemble probabilities are based off a 10:1 SLR, when in
reality given the thermal profiles and generally light winds, actual
SLR may be closer to the 13-16:1 range.  Meaning, the actual
probabilities of ensemble thresholds (1,3,6") are likely much
higher than raw output suggests, and totals could be in the
moderate to heavy range. The good news is there is still plenty
of time for adjustments as superensemble guidance suggests there
may be a range from heavier snow as far north as Aberdeen and
Grand Forks to as far south as Interstate 80. Needless to say,
if traveling after Thanksgiving, or returning home, NOW is the
time to monitor and adjust your plans.

Snow will begin to end by Sunday morning, through high pressure
moving into the Plains is expected to drop temperatures into
the teens in many areas for daytime highs. The SPG will be
increasing into Sunday morning, which could see some potential
for 20 to 30 mph gusts through the daytime hours, and leading to
blowing snow potential.

Very cold and dry conditions are expected into the new work week,
with increased confidence in below normal temperatures thanks to
snow cover.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1156 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

A band of rain and snow showers is lifting through southwest
Minnesota to begin the period, with additional snow moving into the
Highway-14 corridor in and around KHON. This snow will gradually
move southeastward through the afternoon, moving into the I-90
corridor including KFSD during the mid-afternoon. Expect visibility
drops to IFR to LIFR in falling snow. Snow will gradually taper off
from west to east through this evening.

After snow has fallen, there will be some blowing snow issues
mainly along the Highway-14 corridor in South Dakota to portions
of southwest Minnesota where snow totals will be highest.
Currently thinking that at least visibilities will drop to
around 5 miles at KHON in blowing snow, but if we start pushing
upwards of 3 inches there, then blowing snow may become a more
of an issue. Trends will be monitored. After the storm system
exits the area, we`ll slowly start to scatter out the lower
clouds. VFR conditions look to return for most of the area by
the last few hours of the period.

Winds will also be strong through the period, gusting to just over
50 kts through the Missouri River Valley and portions of southwest
Minnesota this afternoon into the evening. Elsewhere, gusts will max
out around 45-50 kts. Winds will slowly diminish through tonight,
though will still remain elevated. Winds by daybreak tomorrow will
be gusting over 30 kts east of Highway-75 and in the higher
elevations of the Buffalo Ridge, lessening with westward extent.
Winds will continue to die down from west to east through tomorrow
morning.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...High Wind Warning until midnight CST tonight for SDZ068>071.
     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for SDZ038-052-053-
     058-059-064.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for
     SDZ038>040-052>056.
     Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for SDZ039-040-
     054>056-060>062-065>067.
     High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for SDZ050-057-
     063.
MN...Wind Advisory until 3 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ089-090-097-098.
     Winter Storm Warning until 3 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ071-072-
     080-081.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST Wednesday for MNZ089-
     090-097.
IA...Wind Advisory until 3 AM CST Wednesday for IAZ001>003-012>014-
     021-022-032.
     High Wind Warning until midnight CST tonight for IAZ020-031.
NE...High Wind Warning until midnight CST tonight for NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dux
AVIATION...Samet