525
FXUS63 KFSD 011817
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
117 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and seasonably mild conditions will dominate the week
  ahead with only very minor chances (<20%) for showers into
  early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 117 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Cool, dry high pressure settles southward tonight leading to lighter
winds and clearing skies. May be some mid/high level clouds so that
could offset some of the potential radiational cooling. The NBM 10th
percentile does sneak down to about 36 in parts of southwest MN and
nearby locations, but for now expect low temperatures around 38 or
higher with lower to mid 40s near and west of I-29. So, not a zero
percent chance for patchy frost, but too low to issue any headlines.

High pressure slowly moves east on Friday, so expecting some cool
high temperatures. Highs generally in the low to mid 60s. Southerly
flow increasing in the afternoon west of I-29, then across the
entire area Friday night. Lows may need to be increased a bit into
the lower to mid 50s given the expected 925 mb temperatures.

Saturday will be warmer with southerly flow turning southwest during
the afternoon. Highs more consistently in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

A cool front moves through Saturday night into Sunday bringing cool
and dry conditions.

Monday will be dry and cool with highs in the 60s while southerly
flow increases Tuesday into Wednesday ahead of the next wave,
bringing a better potential for highs in the 70s.

A series of weak, moisture starved systems will move through the
Northern Plains over the next 7 days, resulting in little to no
impacts. The better chances for sprinkles or very light showers will
be Friday and Saturday then again Monday into Tuesday. Both show
waves moving by to the north with the tail end of forcing scraping
by the area. Little to no instability with each wave coupled with
abundant dry air leaves little in the way of precipitation
production potential. Friday and Saturday looks like the better
chance for a spotty shower will be north of I-90 where better mid
level saturation is expected.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

VFR conditions expected for the period. Gusty winds up to 20 kts are
possible until a little bit before sunset, clearing out of the
northwest portion of the CWA near KHON first and stretching
southeast through KFSD and down to KSUX. Winds overall trending down
over the period, switching to light and variable for much of the
area around 3-4z. Ceilings to drop slightly through the period,
though non-impactful for category change.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...Rafalski/08