045
FXUS63 KFSD 291134
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
534 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy northwesterly winds will continue to gradually
  decrease during the first half of the day with gusts between
  25-35 mph expected.

- Periods of blowing and/or drifting snow will continue through
  the morning hours especially across southwestern MN. With
  periods of reduced visibility possible at times, make sure to
  use extra caution when making those morning commute!

- Cold wind chill values in the -10 to -20 degree range will
  persist through the early afternoon.

- Much quieter conditions return for the rest of the week with
  seasonable temperatures expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

A chilly day ahead! Taking a look across the area, areas of light
snow continues to taper off southeastwards with the remaining
returns mainly focused across northwestern IA as of 2 am. While
areas in northwestern IA could see an additional tenth or two over
the next few hours, should see most of this activity leave our area
by 3-4 am. From here, the focus continues to be on the breezier
conditions. Gusts between 25-35 mph with isolated pockets of up to
40 mph will persist through at least the early afternoon before
weakening with an approaching surface high. This combined with a
fresh snowpack of 1-3 inch will lead to continued blowing and/or
drifting with the highest confidence in southwestern MN and portions
of northwestern IA. However, with winds speeds expected to decrease;
current thoughts are that snow won`t be lofted enough to cause
widespread visibility reductions through some isolated pockets of
reduced visibility will be possible.

Nonetheless, the combination of scattered slick spots and periodic
visibility reductions could lead to minor travel impacts during the
morning commute so make sure to drive to the conditions and take
some extra time to reach your destination safely. Looking into the
rest of the day, northwesterly surface winds and lingering cold air
advection (CAA) will lead chillier temperatures for the day with
highs in the low double digits to low 20s. Wind chills will start in
the -10 to -20 degree range to start the day, but should gradually
improve as winds weaken and temperatures increase. Otherwise,
quieter conditions should continue for the rest of the day. Lastly,
temperatures will decrease into the single digits to mid teens for
the night.

Looking into the midweek onwards, northwesterly flow will continue
across the region through about Thursday ushering in a few waves.
The first of which will slide across Minnesota by Tuesday. A second
wave will take a similar path by Wednesday. While both waves could
bring chances for light snow accumulations to portions of our area,
the better coverage looks to occur on Wednesday with the second
wave. This sentiment is agree upon in the ensembles with most
members showing low to moderate confidence (20%-50%) in at least
0.10" of an inch of snow or greater along and northeast of a
Brookings to Worthington, MN to Spencer, IA line. From here, drier
conditions will persist into the weekend with temperatures hovering
in the 20s to 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 528 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

Mostly MVFR and lower conditions this morning will transition to
mainly VFR conditions this TAF period. Taking a look at satellite
imagery, conditions are starting to clear this morning. However,
with breezy northwesterly winds expected through the first half
of the day; periods of BLSN will be possible in areas along and
east of I-29. Decided to leave it out of our TAF sites for now
given the lack of movement in street camera`s. However, the
potential will continue to be there through the afternoon before
dissipating with the weaker winds as a surface high approaches.
Lastly, northwesterly flow will become more light and variable
overnight to end the TAF period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     MNZ098.
     Blizzard Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for MNZ071-
     072-080-081-089-090-097.
IA...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     IAZ001-012-020>022-031-032.
     Blizzard Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for IAZ002-
     003-013-014.
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     NEZ014.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05