466
FXUS63 KFSD 230515 AAC
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
Issued by National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1115 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sunday high temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above normal, with some
  locations flirting with 60 degrees.

- Much colder by mid/late next week, with highs in the 20s/30s and
  lows in the single digits and teens.

- Rain chances (50-70%) across southeast SD, northwest IA,
  southwest MN, into northeast NE Monday. Amounts look to be less
  than 0.25in.

- Snow potential increasing for Tuesday/Tuesday night across
  northern SD into west central MN, where 1 to perhaps as much
  as 4 inches (higher elevations in the Coteau) are possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 651 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Forecast remains on track this evening with minimal changes to the
forecast expected. Main concern tonight is early morning fog setting
in to the Sioux Falls area. Light winds and mainly clear skies
create a supportive environment for the onset of the fog, Visibility
may get to one mile or lower ahead of sunrise, and observations will
be watched closely to determine if a Dense Fog Advisory is warranted
or not. The combination of increasing temperatures after sunrise and
slightly stronger winds moving into the area will likely clear out
and lingering fog relatively quickly Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

The remainder of the weekend looks quiet, with much above normal
temperatures. Surface ridge axis moves over the region this evening,
then shifts east into MN between 06Z and 12Z Sunday. At that time,
light southerly winds develop as well. South to southwest winds and
mostly sunny skies on Sunday will allow temps to warm rather nicely
as 925mb temps rise to between +10C and +15C by Sunday afternoon.
Temps look to rise into the mid/upper 50s, perhaps even low 60s
across portions of south central SD.

Will then be watching two separate areas of low pressure moving
eastward across the central/northern plains Monday into Tuesday.
First low on Monday looks to bring best chances (50-70%) for
rainfall to mainly southeast SD and into adjacent parts of northwest
IA and northeast NE. Further north, lesser chances around 30 percent
or less over east central and northeast SD. Precip amounts look
light, with most areas generally less than 0.25in.

Next wave of precipitation (in the form of snow) looks to affect
mainly northern SD into west central MN Tuesday into Tuesday night.
Models now latching onto a solution that looks to bring snowfall to
the area, something not seen 24 hours ago when the GFS was
considered an outlier. Current snowfall forecast does feature a
general 1 to perhaps 4 inches across northern SD into west central
MN, highest up on the Coteau in the higher elevations. Lesser
amounts across southeast SD into northwest IA and northeast NE from
a dusting to nothing at all. Will continue to monitor trends with
this system.

Still looking at colder air overspreading the region by the middle
and end of next week, with highs in the 20s and 30s while lows drop
into the single digits and teens. Still looking at a potential storm
system towards the very end of the 7-day forecast period as 20-30
percent chances creep in by Saturday. Still much to digest in
regards to storm track/intensity.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1109 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail at all TAF sites through
Sunday evening. Still monitoring conditions overnight for a
brief period of fog potential late tonight/early Sunday morning
as Big Sioux and Missouri River valley fog is possible.
Scattered high clouds will be passing over the region tonight
into Sunday and light winds gradually becoming south/southwest
on Sunday. Just beyond the scope of the current TAFs, but will
be watching for the potential for some light rain to move up
into the region out of Nebraska heading into Monday morning.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BC
DISCUSSION...TMT
AVIATION...AD