Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
354 FXUS63 KFSD 241108 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 608 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light rain showers will exit the area around sunrise this morning, leaving dry conditions for the rest of today. - Temperatures trend back to normal to above normal for the rest of the week and weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 301 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 A cold front continues to push through the forecast area early this morning. Light rain showers persist along and ahead of the front and should push out of the area by around sunrise. Very light additional rainfall amounts are expected with most seeing a trace of rain to up to a few hundredths of an inch. After the front passes through, a much quieter day is expected. High temperatures will warm to the 70s across the area this afternoon along with marginally breezy northwest winds. This will make for a nice fall afternoon across the area! Clear skies are expected for the overnight hours which will allow low temperatures to fall to the upper 40s to low 50s. An upper level low pressure system will push southeast of the area through the middle of this week. The low will become vertically stacked, slow down, and separate from the current jet stream mainly residing across Canada. With this low off to the southeast, upper level ridging will be squeezed overhead between the low and the jet stream. This will keep pleasant conditions going through Wednesday and Thursday with highs warming back above average in the 70s and 80s. There could be some potential for elevated fire danger west of the James River on Thursday as humidity lowers to around 30% and winds strengthen up to about 30 mph. Questions remain regarding precipitation chances though as there remains uncertainty how the vertically stacked low will wobble. Ensembles only show a 10-30 chance for exceeding a hundredth of an inch of rain Friday through the weekend. If the low wobbles back to the northwest, then perhaps some low level moisture can get wrapped around the low to result in low level stratus and drizzle. Otherwise, highs on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday will remain in the 70s and 80s. Medium range guidance still varies on the evolution of another shortwave trough early next week. Cluster analysis also shows similar variance with the same wave. However, the most favored cluster shows the wave amplifying east of the forecast area. This is further supported by the ensembles which again keep low probabilities of a 10-30% chance for exceeding a hundredth of an inch for next Monday and Tuesday. All this to say that mostly dry conditions are expected. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 608 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. A cold front continues to push through the area this morning, turning winds to out of the northwest in its wake. Gusts up to 15-20 knots is expected throughout the day today. Light rain showers ahead of the front are just pushing out of the area, leaving dry conditions for the period. A CU field looks to develop this afternoon, based around 2,000 ft but should diminish as mixing wanes this evening. Winds will go light and variable tonight to end the period. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Meyers AVIATION...Meyers