215
FXUS63 KFSD 241801
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
101 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory in effect area wide for Saturday and Sunday.
  Heat indices running from the upper 90s to around 105.
  Wildfire smoke could be a limiting factor on highs, but for
  now do not believe it will be thick enough to lower
  temperatures too much.

- Isolated severe storms will be possible Saturday evening,
  with the better chances west of I-29.

- While details are uncertain, if storms develop Sunday evening
  into Sunday night, some may be strong to severe with damaging
  winds, isolated large hail and locally heavy rain possible.

- Still a good chance for highs in the 90s next week in most
  locations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Heat Concerns:

Heat and humidity build back into the area this weekend, with
afternoon and evening heat indices around a 100 or more for most
locations both Saturday and Sunday. Confidence in higher heat
indices for this weekend compared to last weekend is a higher as dew
points look to climb into the lower to mid 70s, which can feel very
oppressive. One limiting factor may be wildfire smoke, but for now
the expectations are that the smoke will be somewhat limited so the
effect on temperatures will likely not be that great. Will have a
heat advisory area wide for the weekend with some potential for
additional heat headlines next week. As confidence grows, a heat
warning may be needed along the James and Missouri River Valleys
Saturday and Sunday where heat indices could climb to around 110.
Most days next week look to have highs in the 90s, so even without
headlines will still be very warm each day.

Thunderstorm concerns:

The latest models continue to hint at isolated thunderstorm
potential Saturday evening and early overnight. For now capping
looks to be a problem, but a weak wave is expected to move into
central SD late afternoon so development may occur to the west of
the Mo River. As the wave shifts east isolated development will
remain possible. Right now the main concerns look to be quarter
sized hail and wind gusts to 65 mph.

Another piece of energy moves into the area on Sunday and should
bring another chance for some isolated severe storms. The better
shear and instability look to reside over southwest MN and this
should be the higher threat for severe storms. Will also need to
keep an eye out for south central SD where the cap could be broken
and an isolated strong to severe storm could develop. Overall there
may be enough dry air in the low levels to really limit the
instability and them main concern would be wind if something could
develop. Confidence for both Saturday and Sunday are fairly low.

Other concerns:

The only other real concern will be the potential for some fog later
tonight into Saturday morning. The better chances will be in
northwest IA, northeast NE and far southeast SD. For now not looking
like widespread dense fog.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

IFR to MVFR conditions will slowly improve through mid
afternoon. Additional stratus and fog may develop later tonight
into Saturday morning with the better chances in northwest IA,
northeast NE and far southeast SD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 8 PM CDT Sunday for
     SDZ038>040-050-052>071.
MN...Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 8 PM CDT Sunday for MNZ071-
     072-080-081-089-090-097-098.
IA...Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 8 PM CDT Sunday for
     IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 8 PM CDT Sunday for NEZ013-
     014.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...08