Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
410 FXUS64 KFWD 260816 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 316 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026 ...New LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory is in effect for all of North and Central Texas today. - The overall fire threat will be lower today due to increased cloud cover and lower wind speeds. However, continue to take caution to avoid sparking wildfires. Smoke from ongoing wildfires will continue to reduce visibility in some areas. - Low (10-30%) storm chances return Wednesday, bringing the potential for gusty winds. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026 A weak front draped across southern Oklahoma is set to push southward through North and Central Texas today as a mid-level shortwave approaches from the northwest. Outflow from an MCV in the Texas Panhandle had merged with the front early this morning and is now pushing into our northwestern counties as of 07Z. Expect breezy (15-20 mph) NW winds and higher dewpoints behind the boundary. Meanwhile, prefrontal moisture transport has allowed scattered showers to develop east of the Metroplex; this activity should continue for the next several hours as the front approaches. Storms have a low (10-30%) chance of forming near the frontal boundary this afternoon, especially along a secondary theta-e gradient in East TX. A few cells may bring strong winds due to the dry pre-frontal environment. Low (10-30%) rain chances will stick around overnight into Thursday, particularly for Central TX. High temperatures are now on the downtrend due to the mid-level ridge`s westward retreat. Together with higher mid-level cloud cover and the slight cooldown following passage of the weak front, temperatures will be lower than yesterday, particularly across the Big Country and western North TX. However, higher moisture behind the front could still keep heat index values near the 105-degree threshold for a Heat Advisory. We will make any necessary adjustments to the Heat Advisory in our morning update. Temperatures will feel hot today regardless of the heat headlines in your local area. Tomorrow, temps will peak in the upper 90s to near 100 areawide, continuing the slight downward trend. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 316 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026 Another shortwave riding the ridge will create a low chance (up to 30%) for showers and storms on Thursday along the sagging frontal boundary in Central TX. Rain chances will slip away beginning Friday as the front washes out and the center of the mid-level ridge moves back east into Texas. Luckily, ensemble guidance indicates the ridge will be a tad weaker than before, keeping high temps through early next week above average (upper 90s to near 100) but not extreme like we saw previously. No meaningful relief from the heat is expected as the signal for above average temperatures and below average rainfall continues into the first week of September. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026 The weak front approaching the Metroplex from the NW this morning has been pushed toward us faster than originally anticipated due to outflow from dying convection in the TX Panhandle. As a result, a shift to light (<10KT) NW winds within the D10 may begin closer to 12-14Z. Additionally, scattered showers have developed east of the Metroplex, and this activity should continue for the next several hours as the front approaches, possibly filling in closer to Metroplex sites. Smoke from the Ross Fire is not expected to impact visibility at the major airports, but patchy smoke aloft could reach the western edge of D10 between 11-13Z as winds veer during frontal passage. This afternoon, isolated showers are expected to develop near the front, likely affecting all sites between 21-24Z. While there is low thunder potential, it remains isolated, and we have higher confidence in seeing -SHRA than TSRA at the TAF sites at this time. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 102 80 99 78 / 20 20 10 10 Waco 103 77 100 75 / 10 20 30 10 Paris 100 74 97 72 / 20 20 10 10 Denton 102 75 99 73 / 20 20 10 10 McKinney 101 75 98 73 / 20 10 10 10 Dallas 104 80 101 78 / 20 20 10 10 Terrell 103 75 99 73 / 20 20 10 10 Corsicana 103 77 100 75 / 20 20 20 20 Temple 103 77 101 75 / 10 30 30 20 Mineral Wells 102 73 100 71 / 20 20 30 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107- 115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...Fenske LONG TERM....Fenske AVIATION...Fenske