Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
587 FXUS64 KFWD 171843 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 143 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening and again Monday afternoon and evening. Any storm that develops may become strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds possible. - More widespread showers and storms expected Tuesday and Wednesday with the arrival of a cold front. Heavy rainfall and some strong to severe storms possible each day. - The weather pattern will remain unsettled late week and into the weekend with daily chances for showers and storms. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 The start of the forecast period will remain warm, breezy, and mostly dry across North and Central Texas as a western CONUS trough deepens and broad southwest flow becomes established overhead. Lee-side pressure falls to our west will maintain a steady southerly fetch through the afternoon, allowing temperatures to climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s while richer Gulf moisture continues to spread northward. A subtle disturbance embedded within the southwest flow may provide just enough ascent for a few storms to attempt development late this afternoon and evening, with the most likely corridor generally along and east of I-35 where low-level moisture convergence may become locally enhanced. The special 18Z sounding from FWD confirms a stout cap remains in place, which should suppress most convective attempts and keep any isolated storm that does manage to develop elevated rather than surface-based. Steep lapse rates support a hail threat with any storm that develops, while the damaging wind threat would be lower given the limited surface- based instability. Any activity should diminish later this evening as the boundary layer cools and inhibition strengthens. Monday will bring a more meaningful, although still conditional, severe-weather setup as a stronger shortwave ejects into the Plains and pulls the dryline farther east toward the Big Country. Large-scale ascent will increase through the afternoon while the warm sector remains characterized by warm, humid, and unstable conditions across much of North and Central Texas. The cap will continue to play a major role in storm coverage, with the best initiation potential focused near and east of the dryline across western North Texas before any storms move east toward the I-35 corridor late in the day. Coverage may remain isolated to widely scattered, but any sustained storm would likely become severe with large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards. A storm or two lingering into the evening would also encounter a strengthening low-level jet, which may support a localized increase in low-level rotation, especially across North Texas. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 The long term period begins within an increasingly amplified pattern, with a deep western CONUS trough and downstream ridging along the eastern CONUS placing North and Central Texas beneath persistent southwest flow aloft. This pattern will support a transition from the conditional, isolated severe potential that has dominated the short term forecast period to a more persistent rain and thunderstorm regime through mid to late week. The main forecast challenge will be identifying which features provide the strongest focus for storms each day, as the pattern transitions from a dryline/shortwave-driven severe weather pattern late Monday to a frontal and eventually surface boundary-driven rain and storm regime later in the week. Any storms that develop late Monday afternoon or evening may continue east into parts of North Texas Monday night before gradually weakening as they encounter stronger inhibition and less favorable instability with eastward extent. Storms may still be capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts during the evening, particularly if activity remains more discrete or semi- discrete. Later Monday night, convective outflow and the approaching cold front will help determine where the main focus will be for renewed shower and thunderstorm development on Tuesday. The effective boundary on Tuesday may be a blend of the synoptic front and prior storm outflow, which will make the placement and timing of the highest rain and storm chances somewhat dependent on Monday nights convective evolution. By Tuesday, the severe threat should become more focused along the advancing front, supporting a broader corridor of storms across North and Central Texas. Damaging winds and hail will be the primary concerns, while the overall intensity will depend on frontal timing and how much instability can build ahead of the boundary. Temperatures will trend cooler behind the front Tuesday night into Wednesday, with a brief lull in precipitation possible where the deeper ascent temporarily shifts away from the region. Rain and storm chances should increase again from midweek into the end of the week as southern-stream troughing lingers to our west and the front slows or stalls near Central Texas. Periodic disturbances embedded in the southwest flow will interact with the boundary and a moist post-frontal/overrunning regime, supporting multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms through late week. Antecedent soil moisture remains quite low in many areas, but the threat for runoff and localized flash flooding will increase through the week as the upper soil layer becomes increasingly saturated. Rain chances may linger through the weekend, especially across Central and East Texas, while temperatures remain near to below normal under clouds, periodic rain, and lingering frontal influence. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 VFR ceilings have started to return to parts of the Metroplex early this afternoon and should continue to lift through the rest of the day, though a few brief MVFR cigs may linger in the vicinity of KAFW, KFTW, and KGKY for another hour or so. Light radar echoes across portions of North and Central Texas are producing little to no measurable rainfall at the surface, and the TAFs will remain dry. Gusty south winds will continue to be the main aviation concern with sustained speeds increasing to near 20 kt and gusts to 30 kt through late afternoon, followed by only a modest decrease this evening and tonight. MVFR ceilings will return overnight, generally 07-08Z across the Metroplex and closer to 06Z at KACT. Cigs should lift back to VFR around midday Monday as mixing increases, with another round of gusty south winds expected by late morning and afternoon. Better convective potential Monday afternoon should remain northwest of the Metroplex near the dryline, so no SHRA/TSRA mention is needed at this time. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 532 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Spotter activation is not likely through tomorrow, but any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Services are appreciated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 75 90 74 88 / 20 20 10 60 Waco 75 89 75 87 / 20 20 20 60 Paris 73 87 72 84 / 20 30 30 70 Denton 75 89 75 86 / 20 20 10 70 McKinney 75 90 74 86 / 20 20 20 70 Dallas 76 91 74 89 / 20 20 10 60 Terrell 75 90 73 87 / 20 20 20 60 Corsicana 77 91 76 90 / 20 20 20 60 Temple 77 91 76 89 / 20 20 20 60 Mineral Wells 73 89 72 86 / 10 20 10 60 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...12