Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
554 FXUS64 KFWD 121855 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 155 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and dry conditions will persist into the weekend with an increasing threat for wildfire activity across the region. - Little to no rainfall is expected in the next 7 days. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026 Hot and dry conditions will continue through Thursday as the upper level ridge remains anchored to our east, but extends west across North and Central Texas. Breezy winds of 10-20 mph with gusts of 20-30 mph will continue through Thursday. Overnight lows tonight will be similar to this morning, but afternoon highs tomorrow will be an average of 1 degree warmer. Several locations in North Texas are touching Heat Advisory criteria at this hour, but a Heat Advisory has been issued only for 4 of our northwestern counties for the remainder of today through 8 pm Thursday due to ambient temperatures around 103 degrees and heat index values around 105 degrees. Even though there will be a breeze during this period, and RH values will be below 25-30% percent, impacts to those working outside for extended periods of time will still be able to occur quickly. Even without a Heat Advisory, the main message is: It`s still summer, it`s still hot outside, please take precautions if you must be outdoors. An elevated threat for grass and wildfires will exist the rest of today and again on Thursday afternoon, largely for locations along and west of Highway 281, but also including areas along and west of I-35/35W. Conditions look to stay just below Red Flag Warning criteria but this will be reassessed over the next 12-16 hours. At the very least, a Grassfire Danger Statement will likely be issued. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026 An upper level disturbance will move around the southwestern periphery of the upper level ridge, along the TX/MX border from Thursday through Saturday. Unfortunately the ridge looks to hold its influence over the region, and this feature likely won`t bring any rain chances to us. However, moisture will increase a little bit across the region on Friday with some added cloud coverage. This may knock temperatures down a little bit across Central Texas, and heat index values will need to be looked at again, for a possible Heat Advisory. In addition, there`s a low chance (<20%) some sea breeze activity reaches our southern counties late on Friday. Elevated fire weather conditions will occur again Friday afternoon mainly across our west and northwest counties. For the remainder of the forecast period, the upper level ridge will continue to influence the large scale sensible weather with hot and dry conditions continuing. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely again on Saturday and then wind speeds may relax a little next week. Conditions for future Heat Advisories will continue to be monitored with the upper level ridge remaining in place. But the ridge will be shifting from our east to our west through the early part of next week, and we`ll see if a pattern shift is in the future for the later part of August. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through the period. Expect 15-20KT southerly winds, occasionally gusting to 25KT, to continue overnight into tomorrow in response to a relatively tight pressure gradient over North and Central TX. Guidance shows a low (10-20%) potential for MVFR cigs at Waco tomorrow morning, but with no substantial push of moisture into Central TX tonight, confidence in this scenario is low. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 101 80 101 / 0 0 0 10 Waco 79 100 79 98 / 0 0 0 10 Paris 79 99 76 99 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 79 102 79 101 / 0 0 0 10 McKinney 78 99 78 100 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 81 103 81 101 / 0 0 0 10 Terrell 77 101 77 100 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 76 100 77 99 / 0 0 0 10 Temple 77 100 77 98 / 0 0 0 10 Mineral Wells 76 103 76 102 / 0 0 0 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ100-101-115-116. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLDunn LONG TERM....JLDunn AVIATION...Fenske