Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
019 FXUS64 KFWD 291025 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 425 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Continued gusty north winds and low humidity will lead to a low risk for a few wildfires across the region today. - Much colder and below normal temperatures are expected through Tuesday, with warmer and above normal temperatures the rest of this week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 420 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 Winds continue to decrease significantly across Central Texas this morning, and went ahead and cancelled the Wind Advisory about an hour ago. Temperatures across North Texas have also fallen near or below forecast lows for this morning, so have lowered min temps about 1 to 2 degrees across the board. Rest of forecast remains on track. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through tonight) Issued at 1241 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 In the wake of yesterday`s strong cold front, gusty north winds continue throughout North and Central Texas early this morning with a few locations still gusting up to 35 knots. However, winds have decreased below criteria since peaking in the 35-45 knot range early Sunday evening, and I plan to cancel the North Texas portion of the Wind Advisory a bit early by 07Z. I will leave the Central Texas portion of the advisory in place for a few more hours but will likely have to cancel it early as well. Much colder air has filtered into our area behind the front with current temperatures ranging from the upper 20s near the Red River to the low 50s in our south. Temperatures are running colder than forecast in our northern counties, so I have lowered low temps for this morning a few degrees across North Texas. Even with the cold start, the very dry airmass with dewpoints in the 10/20s and partly sunny skies will allow highs to reach the 40s by this afternoon. Continued gusty north winds will make it feel even colder with wind chills in the 20s/30s. Some guidance such as the GFS is showing potential for a few flurries in our western counties later today on the far eastern edge of the winter storm impacting West Texas. However, this appears overdone as forecast soundings show extremely dry air below 550mb, and the airmass will simply be too dry in our forecast area for any precipitation to reach the surface. Tonight, winds will decrease substantially as a 1035mb surface high settles over North and Central Texas. Thick high cloud cover will prevent good radiational cooling and keep temperatures from really plummeting overnight, but still looks to get quite chilly with lows dropping into the low 20s in our north to the low 30s in our south. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 1241 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 After a chilly Monday and early Tuesday, a warming trend will begin and continue into the weekend as an upper level ridge of high pressure builds from Mexico into the Rockies, while flow aloft gradually becomes more zonal. Highs look to warm from the 50s on Tuesday the 60s by Wednesday, 70s by Thursday, and even some 80s in Central Texas by Friday. A weak front shown by 00Z global models may knock temperatures down somewhat for the weekend, but it will still be well above-normal with highs in the 60s/70s. Unfortunately, no precipitation is anticipated this week or for the foreseeable future as we continue in a very long stretch without significant rainfall. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 420 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025 VFR conditions will continue at airports this TAF period with scattered to broken cirrus clouds. North winds around 10 knots this morning will increase to around 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots after 15Z, with a few gusts as high as 30 knots possible. Winds will subside again after 30/00Z with speeds 5-10 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 47 28 53 36 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 47 30 52 33 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 42 23 48 32 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 45 24 54 31 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 45 26 52 33 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 47 29 53 38 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 47 27 52 31 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 49 31 53 34 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 48 32 55 32 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 48 26 57 32 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Shamburger LONG TERM....Shamburger AVIATION...Shamburger