Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
172 FXUS64 KFWD 022025 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 225 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026 ...New LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - A line of strong to severe storms is expected to move across North and Central TX this evening and tonight. - Main threats are damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two. Large hail is also possible with discrete storms this evening in western North TX. - Dry, breezy, and cooler conditions are forecast for Tuesday following the passage of a cold front. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 149 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026 An amplified upper-level trough is currently moving eastward over the Rocky Mountains. Forcing from this approaching trough has already induced surface cyclogenesis in the Central and Northern Plains, and a jet streak rounding the base of the trough has helped a secondary low develop on the CO/KS border. These features are helping create a favorable parameter space for severe weather later this afternoon through tonight across North and Central TX. Effective shear of 45-50kt, sufficient for organized thunderstorms, has been observed across Northwest TX early this afternoon due to strong southwesterly flow aloft; meanwhile, moisture transport through the day has brought mid-60s to near 70 degree F dewpoints to areas east of a dryline situated in the High Plains. A corridor of 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE has developed near an axis of higher theta-e values in the Rolling Plains just ahead of the dryline. Based on recent satellite trends, there are two most likely areas for thunderstorm development. First, scattered strong storms have already begun to develop along an axis of highest moisture transport oriented SSW to NNE across central Oklahoma. Additional development is possible on the southern end of these storms, and if this occurs, isolated storms could develop near our northwest counties as early as mid-afternoon (3 pm). However, a more likely scenario is convective initiation in the Rolling Plains as the more robust forcing from the upper trough overspreads the dryline. This would put storms approaching western North TX by late afternoon (4-6 pm). Regardless, storm chances will increase over time this afternoon and evening across western North TX. Storms may be semi-discrete just after initiation but should quickly grow upscale into a broken-line QLCS given that storm motion will be roughly parallel to forcing along the boundary. If storms are discrete this evening, they would be supercellular in nature and capable of all hazards, including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Once upscale growth occurs, the main threat will be isolated damaging wind gusts; however, a few embedded weak tornadoes are possible on the northern end of bowing segments, where line-normal shear would be maximized. The line, generally oriented SW to NE, will propagate eastward across the region tonight, passing through the DFW Metroplex around 10 pm to 1 am and Waco/Temple/Killeen around 1-4 am. Storms should exit our East TX and Brazos Valley counties by mid-morning tomorrow. A cold front will follow a few hours after these storms pass through, bringing breezy, west-northwest winds beginning tomorrow morning. We`ll see cooler temperatures (highs in the low-to-mid 70s) and drier conditions tomorrow afternoon as a result. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 218 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026 A quiet stretch of fall weather will begin Tuesday night as surface high pressure builds into the Southern Plains behind the departing early-week system. Clear skies, diminishing winds, and a dry post-frontal airmass will allow temperatures to fall into the 40s and lower 50s by Wednesday morning. Abundant sunshine and light winds will make for a pleasant Wednesday with highs mainly in the lower to middle 70s. A progressive shortwave will then move from the central Rockies into the Plains Wednesday night and Thursday, sending another cold front through North and Central Texas. Despite the passing disturbance, appreciable moisture will be lacking following the early-week frontal intrusion. Rain associated with this system should remain outside of our forecast area Thursday afternoon, leaving North and Central Texas dry through Friday. Cooler air will filter south behind the front with highs falling into the upper 60s and lower 70s Friday. The pattern becomes somewhat more amplified this weekend as a northern-stream trough digs rapidly from the Dakotas Saturday toward the Ohio Valley Sunday and Monday. This evolution will maintain northerly low-level flow across North and Central Texas, preventing meaningful Gulf moisture from returning through the end of the period. Another reinforcing push of cooler air will accompany this system, keeping highs mainly in the mid and upper 60s Saturday and Sunday with overnight lows in the 40s and lower 50s. Despite the dry continental boundary layer, the persistent northerly flow and modest cold advection should limit daytime warming and keep the diurnal temperature range from becoming particularly large. Forecast confidence decreases somewhat this weekend regarding the amplitude and evolution of a weaker southern-stream disturbance moving across northern Mexico. While guidance differs on the handling of this feature, the better moisture and precipitation potential should remain south and southeast of North Texas. Low rain chances (~20%) have crept into the fringes of Central Texas this weekend where deeper moisture and ascent may briefly overlap, while the remainder of the region should stay dry. Otherwise, the more prominent northern-stream trough digging from the Northern Plains toward the Ohio Valley will maintain northerly low-level flow across the region, preventing any meaningful Gulf moisture return through the end of the period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1131 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026 Southerly (170-190 deg) winds of 15-20KT with gusts to 25-35KT will predominate through sunset. As a result, there is a low potential for crosswind impacts at DFW`s diagonal runways and at DAL. Brief, patchy MVFR ceilings are possible through early afternoon at all sites as moisture transport increases low-level cloud coverage; however, cigs should lift to VFR after 19Z. Tonight, a broken line of thunderstorms will push through the region from west to east, bringing a threat for lightning and strong wind gusts to the Metroplex (05-07Z) and later to KACT (07-09Z). In addition to gusty winds, storms that directly impact the airports may also bring short-term reductions in ceilings and visibility. A few hours after this line of storms passes, winds will shift to a WNW direction, remaining around 10-15KT through tomorrow morning. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 218 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026 Spotter activation may be requested late this afternoon and evening across parts of North and Central Texas. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 61 73 53 73 / 90 0 0 0 Waco 63 74 50 74 / 90 40 0 0 Paris 65 73 49 73 / 90 40 0 0 Denton 58 73 45 73 / 80 0 0 0 McKinney 60 72 48 72 / 90 10 0 0 Dallas 63 74 54 74 / 90 10 0 0 Terrell 64 74 49 73 / 100 30 0 0 Corsicana 66 74 52 72 / 90 60 0 0 Temple 65 75 51 75 / 90 50 0 0 Mineral Wells 56 73 48 75 / 90 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Fenske LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...Fenske