Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
947 FXUS64 KFWD 181740 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1240 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated fire weather concerns will continue into this weekend, particularly along and west of the I-35 corridor. - Slightly cooler weather with low (20-30%) rain chances return from Sunday into next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026 A mid-level ridge currently centered over the ArkLaTex will stay overtop North and Central TX through Saturday night. Large-scale subsidence from this feature should warm up and dry out the mid- levels of the atmosphere, and 850-300mb mean flow around the ridge will slowly advect drier air (1-1.25 inch PW values) from Louisiana into East TX today. Deep boundary-layer mixing under sunny skies has allowed fair-weather cumulus to develop today and will do so again tomorrow afternoon; however, the warm and dry profile above the boundary layer will preclude mentionable rain chances through Saturday night. Near-record temperatures will continue today and Saturday as a result of this pattern, with highs in the upper 90s to near 100 and lows in the 70s. Though there is a high (70-90%) likelihood that a few North TX locales will see triple-digit temps this weekend, the climatological window for this kind of heat is rapidly closing. At DFW, only nine years in the historical record going back to 1898 have recorded 100-degree temps later than September 20, which is this Sunday. Fire weather concerns remain elevated Friday and Saturday as minimum RH values are expected to drop to 25-30% and fuels remain very dry. Tomorrow, a shortwave coming over the southern Rockies in advance of a larger pattern change should induce the development of a weak surface low in northeast NM. This low is expected to move into western Oklahoma by Saturday night. The tightening pressure gradient should support slightly breezier conditions Saturday afternoon and evening, particularly in western North TX, adding to Saturday`s fire threat. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026 The dome of high pressure that has continued to generate well above normal temperatures across North and Central Texas will begin to break down on Saturday as a pair of shortwaves move from west to east across the Central Plains. These shortwaves will be the beginning of a slightly more active weather pattern that will mostly impact areas north and northwest of our region. However, the aforementioned shortwaves will push a cold front south into Oklahoma, generating showers and storms along its leading edge. Although the true front may remain north of our region, outflow driven showers and storms may still push southward into western portions of North Texas Sunday evening and overnight. Moderate deep-layer shear, coupled with 1000-1500 J/kg of instability may promote a few strong storms if a loosely organized cluster is able to migrate south. The first half of next week will remain somewhat unsettled across the region as the frontal boundary gradually progresses southward and stalls atop our region. With increased surface convergence atop continued above normal temperatures, expect afternoon showers and storms to develop each day. Temperatures, even behind the front, will remain in the 90s given a lack of cold air across much of the CONUS. Precipitation amounts are unlikely to be significant enough to put a dent in our drought, keeping vegetation primed to additional fire starts. The threat for grass fires will persist through next week, especially in areas that miss out on the rain. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the period. Expect generally southerly flow at 5-10 KT, with wind direction backing SSE this evening and veering SSW tomorrow morning in the typical diurnal fashion. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 77 99 78 98 / 0 0 0 20 Waco 73 98 74 98 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 72 98 73 97 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 75 99 75 99 / 0 0 0 20 McKinney 74 98 74 97 / 0 0 0 10 Dallas 77 100 78 99 / 0 0 0 10 Terrell 72 98 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 72 97 73 97 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 72 98 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 72 99 72 99 / 0 0 0 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Fenske LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...Fenske