Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
481 FXUS64 KFWD 012357 AAA AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 657 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - 20-30% storm coverage is forecast Tuesday and Wednesday. A few storms could produce strong gusty winds, but widespread severe weather is not expected. - Better rain chances arrive areawide Friday into Saturday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 700 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026 The overall forecast message below remains on-track, but we did update our PoP forecast to better capture tomorrow`s convective trends. We are still expecting the coverage of storms to remain scattered (~30%), but we have higher confidence of storms developing. Forecast soundings indicate that it should not take much lift to initiate storms tomorrow afternoon. Since multiple clusters of storms have developed in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas, we should have at least a couple remnant outflow boundaries or gravity waves in our area that will help initiate storms. There is still uncertainty regarding placement of these boundaries and the timing of storms, but it`s now less a question of *if* storms develop, and now more a question of *when and where* storms develop. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 142 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026 The rest of this afternoon will remain warm and dry as mid-level ridge axis remains centered over North and Central Texas. Expect today`s highs to reach the mid 90s across much of the region. Heat index values will range from 98 to 102 degrees; make sure you`re staying hydrated if spending time outdoors! On Tuesday, the mid-level ridge will weaken while a weak backdoor front approaches the ArkLaTex region. This boundary will gradually progress to the southwest through the afternoon, allowing scattered storms to develop initially along and east of I-35. With continued forward progress, storm chances will also migrate southeast as the day goes on. Storm coverage should remain scattered, with the best chances across North and East Texas. Strong heating and modest instability will support a few stronger storms capable of gusty winds, small hail and brief heavy rainfall. The overall severe threat remains low, but an isolated severe wind gusts cannot be ruled out. Storms should decrease Tuesday night with the loss of daytime heating, though isolated showers or storms may linger into the evening across eastern portions of the area. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 142 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026 A subtle pattern change will begin Wednesday as weak upper troughing spreads out of northern Mexico into West Texas. This will bring daily low-end storm chances back to portions of North and Central Texas through late week. On Wednesday, slightly drier air may filter into the eastern counties while better moisture and lift remain west of I-35. Scattered storms may develop along a dryline or weak surface trough well to our west, with some activity possibly reaching the western counties late in the day or evening. A similar setup is expected Thursday, with the better storm chances generally across western portions of the forecast area. A few storms could produce gusty winds and small hail, but organized severe weather remains unlikely. Rain chances should increase Friday into early Saturday as stronger height falls overspread North and Central Texas ahead of the main disturbance. This appears to be the best window for more widespread showers and thunderstorms, though timing differences remain among the guidance. Rain chances should begin to decrease by Sunday as the disturbance moves east of the region. Temperatures will trend closer to seasonal normal by mid to late week due to increased cloud cover and rain chances, with highs generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 700 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026 VFR and south flow should prevail this evening, with the winds going calm or light/variable after midnight. Multiple clusters of storms well to the north of D10 will send a few outflow boundaries south tonight. These outflows should make the winds a challenge tomorrow, but the newest TAFs attempt to capture the larger-scale flow trends, knowing there may be some erratic wind shifts from about 09-16Z. There is a <20% chance of storm impacts to the D10 feeder routes tomorrow morning as early as around 12Z, but storm chances increase tomorrow afternoon near the aforementioned outflow boundaries. We have higher confidence of storms developing in the area tomorrow afternoon, so we included VCTS in the D10 TAFs. We aren`t confident enough for a TEMPO at this time, but will monitor for future TAFs. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 77 95 74 89 / 0 20 20 10 Waco 75 92 72 87 / 0 20 30 30 Paris 73 92 69 85 / 10 30 10 0 Denton 75 93 72 87 / 0 20 20 10 McKinney 75 93 71 86 / 0 20 20 0 Dallas 77 96 74 90 / 0 20 20 10 Terrell 74 95 71 88 / 10 20 30 0 Corsicana 74 95 73 90 / 10 20 30 10 Temple 74 92 73 88 / 0 20 30 30 Mineral Wells 72 92 70 86 / 0 10 20 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Bonnette SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...Bonnette