Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
822 FXUS64 KFWD 101804 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 104 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered storms are expected mainly in North Texas, this afternoon/evening. A few storms may become strong with gusty winds, but the severe threat is low. - Above normal temperatures will continue into next week with most areas rain-free this weekend and beyond. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026 Unlike the previous few days, today will be a bit more unsettled. An upper-level shortwave trough will continue to move W-E over the northern Plains, shunting a cold front into the southern Plains. This front is currently draped across northern Kansas/southern Nebraska, and is expected to push into Oklahoma before stalling this afternoon. With the front remaining to our north and most guidance pushing the incoming cloud cover later in the afternoon, most areas will observe high temperatures in the mid 90s to around 100-101. We should still be able to mix out enough to keep heat indices just under Heat Advisory criteria for most, though isolated locales may still reach that 105-106 degree heat index value this afternoon in North Texas. Showers and storms are expected to develop on the front and will eventually surge south along an outflow boundary, moving into North Texas this afternoon and evening. Greatest coverage of scattered convection will be near the Red River and north of US-380, but isolated storms will remain possible as the outflow continues south of I-20 tonight. The overall severe weather threat with this activity is low, though strong gusty winds and lightning will be the main hazards with any more robust cell or cluster. Though PWATs > 1.75" will allow for periods of heavy rain, the scattered nature of this activity means that not everyone will see beneficial rainfall. Most areas in North Texas will see rainfall totals through Friday of around 0.50", though some isolated spots may see totals between 0.75-1". Areas south of I-20 and into Central Texas will observe even lower totals. Most of the storm activity will be during the afternoon and early evening, gradually waning in coverage the rest of the night with the loss of daytime heating. Isolated to scattered rain chances will still remain overnight into Friday as the shortwave itself exits into the Midwest. As the shortwave moves off to the east, expect any lingering rain to come to an end during the day Friday. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026 Over this upcoming weekend the upper ridge will begin to build back into the Southern Plains in the wake of the exiting shortwave. This will effectively stunt any additional rain as subsidence becomes the main forecast player through the first half of this upcoming week. However this looks to be only temporary as extended guidance continues to show a shortwave trough displacing the ridge to the west and allowing a cold front to slide south through the Plains into the region towards the end of next week into the weekend. While it is way too early to get into the weeds of specifics regarding effects on temperatures and rain chances, it`ll definitely be something we`ll keep an eye on as we go through this weekend into next week. Expect more details as we get closer in time. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026 Main concerns... Potential for showers and thunderstorms with strong, gusty outflow winds later this afternoon through late evening. Showers and thunderstorms are expected in D10 beginning mid to late afternoon and will move southeast through the evening. Strong, gusty outflow winds will be the main concern with any of this activity. There will be a chance for a second round of showers or storms between ~04-06Z. For KACT, have dropped prevailing VCTS to a PROB30 for -TSRA, as the probability of terminal impacts has decreased. It`s possible no convective activity occurs at or near the KACT terminal today/tonight, but we`ll have to see how things evolve over the next few hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions and generally south to southeast winds will prevail through the period, with the exception of any outflow winds from thunderstorms. Additionally, it looks like we could briefly have E/ESE winds in D10 behind the rounds of storms late tonight into early Friday morning. This would likely only last a few hours, with south winds returning by 12Z or so Friday. There will be a low (20-25%) chance for showers and thunderstorms throughout the day Friday, but the potential is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 79 98 79 100 / 40 40 0 10 Waco 76 99 77 100 / 20 20 0 0 Paris 73 94 74 98 / 40 50 0 10 Denton 75 98 76 100 / 40 30 0 10 McKinney 75 95 75 98 / 40 40 0 10 Dallas 79 99 80 101 / 30 40 0 10 Terrell 75 97 75 99 / 20 40 0 10 Corsicana 75 97 76 99 / 20 30 0 0 Temple 74 99 75 100 / 10 10 0 0 Mineral Wells 72 99 74 101 / 40 30 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Prater LONG TERM....Prater AVIATION...Barnes