Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
175 FXUS64 KFWD 180606 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 106 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for North Texas this afternoon for temperatures up to 108 degrees, with a Heat Advisory in effect elsewhere. - Triple-digit high temperatures will continue area-wide for the next several days. - Little to no rainfall is expected the rest of the week, and low humidity may contribute to increased wildfire activity. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 1156 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026 Triple-digit heat continues through the short term period as a stout upper ridge remains anchored overhead. This will support another afternoon of temperatures ranging from 100-108, with the hottest temperatures forecast across the Big Country. An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for most of the North Texas to account for temperatures exceeding 105, while a Heat Advisory will be in effect for Central Texas with temperatures up to 105. Due to low humidity with dewpoints aggressively mixing into the 50s and lower 60s, heat index values will mostly be within a couple degrees of ambient temperatures. Otherwise, the low afternoon humidity of 20-30% will continue to support some wildfire activity, and care should be taken to avoid sparking a grass fire as fuels become increasingly dry amid worsening drought conditions. Formally, the fire weather threat will not reach elevated levels due to fairly light wind speeds of about 10 mph or less again today. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 1156 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026 The upper ridge will amplify to our west through the second half of the workweek, placing the Central and Southern Plains within moderate northerly flow aloft. This pattern shift will do little to mitigate the ongoing heat, with highs of 98-104 still likely through the end of the week and weekend despite the pattern shift. However, what this may allow for is the arrival of a weak frontal boundary by late Thursday or Friday. While this feature would also not contain a noteworthy temperature difference, its convergence may be able to support isolated thunderstorm development. For now, PoPs remain around 10% or less and are below mentionable levels in the public forecast. However, if guidance begins to agree on greater thunderstorm potential late in the week, PoPs may be increased to 20-30% in subsequent forecast issuances. The GFS ensemble suite is the only guidance that has consistently been bullish with this potential, and the majority of the forecast area should expect to be rain-free through the long term period. Following this brief frontal intrusion, the mid-level ridge will rapidly expand back eastward again next week, with above normal triple-digit temperatures expected to continue into the Day 7-10 time range. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1156 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026 VFR will prevail through the period with a few mid-level clouds at 8-10 kft. Winds of 5-10 kt will vary between SSE overnight and SSW during the daytime. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 106 82 106 82 / 10 0 0 0 Waco 104 78 103 79 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 104 77 104 80 / 10 10 10 0 Denton 105 79 106 81 / 10 10 0 0 McKinney 105 79 105 81 / 10 10 0 0 Dallas 106 82 106 83 / 10 0 0 0 Terrell 105 78 105 79 / 10 0 0 0 Corsicana 102 78 103 79 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 102 76 103 78 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 106 76 107 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until noon CDT Tuesday for TXZ091>095-100>107- 115>123-129>134. Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>134. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ135-144>148-159>162- 175. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ141>143- 156>158-174. && $$ SHORT TERM...Stalley LONG TERM....Stalley AVIATION...Stalley