Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
123 FXUS64 KFWD 290639 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 139 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers (50-70%) and isolated thunderstorms (10-20%) are expected across the region from this afternoon through Saturday. - Confidence is increasing in another storm system bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 1141 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026 Broad troughing to our west and a steady influx of Pacific moisture will result in a cloudy and occasionally rainy end to the workweek while mild and humid conditions continue. A thickening canopy of mid/high cloud cover will progressively invade the region today, with rain showers beginning to increase in coverage from west to east during the daytime. Due to meager instability from the high-based nature of this precip, occurrences of thunder should be quite scarce, and we`ll only carry a mention of showers rather than thunderstorms for a majority of the area from today into Friday. The few lightning strikes that may occur would likely be well west of the I-35 corridor. There will be rather tight gradient in rain chances to the east, and it is quite likely that many areas east of I-35 remain rain-free through today. Today`s precipitation will primarily be influenced by the presence of a lead shortwave rippling through broader troughing encompassing roughly the western half of the CONUS. As this initial impulse pivots northeast of the area tonight, lift will be at a minimum locally, causing the bulk of the precip to remain confined to West Texas in closer proximity to the parent trough axis. This larger scale troughing in conjunction with a strengthening subtropical jet and increasing moisture from the remnants of a Pacific tropical system will lead to higher rain chances heading into Friday, as all of these features phase and eject northeastward into the Central Plains. So, following a relative minimum in rain chances overnight and early Friday morning, fairly widespread showers should overspread much of the area during the daytime Friday beneath overcast skies. Overall, this system will consist of modest amounts of beneficial rainfall for those fortunate enough to receive it, completely devoid of any potential strong convection or flooding concerns. Despite the lack of a frontal passage with this system, the increasing cloud cover will aid in holding high temperatures several degrees cooler than previous days, with readings mostly in the low/mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1141 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026 The gradual progression of the upper trough axis overhead will continue to support high-based rain showers and widespread cloud cover Friday night into Saturday. However, this activity should be steadily tapering off during the daytime as modest height rises begin to follow behind the system`s departure. This should allow for largely uninterrupted Halloween evening activities as most precip exits the area by late afternoon. However, it will still be a warm and muggy afternoon and evening with highs in the upper 70s and dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s. With large-scale subsidence likely to prevail on Sunday, skies should continue to clear while temperatures return to above normal with highs in the 80s. Medium-range guidance continues to be fairly consistent regarding our next storm system which is set to arrive Monday into Tuesday. A powerful upper trough is forecast to deepen across the entire Central US by Monday, and this system will send a cold front into North Texas either late Monday or Tuesday. This boundary would almost certainly be accompanied by deep convection along and/or preceding it given the amply warm, moist, and unstable warm sector in place prior to its arrival. Some strong/severe convection would be a possibility based on the parameter space alone, although these details remain uncertain at this time range. Depending on the eventual evolution of this system, the midweek period could either consist of some wrap-around precipitation, or more likely, a mild and dry post-frontal airmass with temperatures closer to seasonal normals. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1141 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the period with increasing mid/high cloud cover today. VFR cigs will exist through much of the period and will be as low as 5-10 kft by this afternoon. Light rain will become possible at all TAF sites from midday into the evening, and this will be handled with a prolonged VCSH group. The potential for any thunder is far too low to include in the TAFs at this time. A lull in rain potential is expected overnight before higher rain chances resume heading into Friday. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 82 67 82 66 / 0 0 20 40 Waco 82 65 79 63 / 10 10 40 30 Paris 82 63 84 64 / 0 0 10 20 Denton 81 63 82 62 / 0 0 20 50 McKinney 81 63 82 63 / 0 0 20 40 Dallas 83 67 83 67 / 0 0 20 40 Terrell 81 63 83 64 / 10 0 20 30 Corsicana 79 65 81 64 / 10 10 20 30 Temple 83 65 79 63 / 20 10 30 30 Mineral Wells 82 62 79 61 / 0 0 60 50 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Stalley LONG TERM....Stalley AVIATION...Stalley