Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
883 FXUS64 KFWD 291043 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 543 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms will affect parts of North and East Texas this morning, with additional isolated development expected in Central Texas this afternoon. - Thunderstorms will periodically impact the area through the entire duration of Labor Day weekend. While severe weather is unlikely, those with outdoor plans should stay aware of the potential for heavy rainfall, flooding, gusty winds, and lightning. - Following slightly cooler temperatures over the weekend, highs will return to the upper 80s and 90s next week. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1255 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ /Through Friday Night/ As of midnight, a batch of steadily decaying elevated convection was moving ESE across parts of North Texas. This activity is rooted above the frontal inversion, with the surface front having progressed south of I-20 into Central Texas. As this round of convection eventually wanes during the early morning hours, new development is expected to take place mainly to our northeast along the 850mb frontal surface which is draped from southern Oklahoma southeastward through the ArkLaTex. While most of this activity will remain north and east of the CWA, a few hours of thunderstorm activity can be expected across our northeastern zones roughly northeast of a Sherman to Canton line from the predawn hours through the morning. Locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding will be the main concerns. Most of North Texas will see overcast skies through a majority of the daytime as post-frontal stratus remains anchored across the area, reinforced by favorable ENE winds. This anomalous occurrence for late August should be capable of holding high temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s for areas near and north of I-20 this afternoon. With the front eventually stalling across Central Texas by mid afternoon, areas south of the front will still climb into the mid 90s, and will also see isolated/scattered convective development near the surface frontal zone during peak heating. While organized severe weather is unlikely, a few strong storms capable of downburst winds and brief heavy rainfall can be expected. This activity will shift southward out of the CWA by the evening, with at least a few hours of tranquil weather tonight. -Stalley && .LONG TERM... /Issued 1255 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ /Saturday Onward/ Labor Day weekend is likely to be impacted by additional rounds of shower and thunderstorm activity, which could even result in a washout of outdoor plans at times. A thunderstorm complex from West Texas may approach the forecast area late Friday night into Saturday morning as it advances ESE along the nearly stationary frontal zone which will still be draped through the CWA. The parent disturbance within NW flow aloft responsible for this complex will also serve to strengthen low-level flow and warm advection, and this should lead to additional new development out ahead of any such complex around or just before sunrise. Coverage will be maximized through the morning hours on Saturday, with convection having a tendency to advance slowly southeastward during the daytime. Once again, an abundance of cloud cover should be capable of holding many areas to the low/mid 80s for high temperatures, including much of Central Texas which could be impacted by precipitation through much of the day. Additional convection is expected to blossom along the frontal boundary from the Big Country eastward along the stationary frontal zone beginning Saturday night and continuing into Sunday morning. This will pose a risk for flooding, with some higher res guidance indicating localized rainfall totals exceeding 3 inches across some of our western zones. Scattered thunderstorms then will be possible anywhere within the CWA through the rest of the day, with placement dictated by residual outflow boundaries from preceding convection. A similar setup can be expected heading into Monday which will allow storm chances to persist through the remainder of the holiday weekend. Heavy rain and flooding will remain the primary concern, with strong/gusty outflow winds also possible with stronger cells. Despite a lack of organized severe weather potential, those with outdoor plans (especially boaters and campers) will want to remain aware of the weather for the entirety of the holiday weekend. By Tuesday or Wednesday, a stronger mid-level shortwave digging southward within increasingly meridional flow will send another front through the forecast area, perhaps accompanied by additional scattered thunderstorms. While most ensemble members favor a drier post-frontal solution through the midweek period, a smaller percentage of guidance does linger ascent behind the frontal boundary through the midweek period which could result in additional low precip chances. For now, the forecast will remain dry during this extended period in favor of the ensemble means. Despite the passage of this cold front, less cloud cover and precipitation will limit its effect on ambient temperatures, and the late summer sun will still allow highs to reach the upper 80s and 90s through the midweek period. -Stalley && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12z TAFs/ Post-frontal IFR cigs have overspread the Metroplex TAF sites overnight, and IFR should prevail through at least mid/late morning until modest improvement to MVFR occurs. There is a low chance for cigs to dip to LIFR heights during the next ~3 hours, and a Tempo group will be introduced to advertise this potential. Cigs may briefly scatter to VFR late this afternoon or evening, but this improvement will be short-lived with IFR cigs expected to rapidly fill back in tonight in the presence of ENE surface winds. In terms of rain chances, mostly dry conditions are forecast for the D10 airports today with convective activity this morning staying to the east and afternoon redevelopment likely to occur through Central Texas along the surface front. Thunderstorms will be included at Waco with the surface frontal boundary likely to be nearby during peak heating, before this activity shifts southward this evening. Additional showers and thunderstorms will arrive from the west heading into Saturday morning, and SHRA will be indicated at Metroplex TAF sites at the end of the valid period. -Stalley && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 72 83 72 83 / 20 30 70 50 60 Waco 94 74 86 72 82 / 40 30 60 60 80 Paris 74 68 81 68 83 / 60 20 40 30 40 Denton 82 70 82 69 83 / 20 30 70 50 60 McKinney 78 70 82 69 83 / 20 30 60 40 50 Dallas 81 73 83 73 83 / 20 30 70 50 60 Terrell 81 71 83 70 83 / 30 30 60 40 60 Corsicana 87 74 84 72 84 / 40 40 70 50 70 Temple 94 74 87 72 84 / 30 20 60 50 80 Mineral Wells 85 71 85 69 82 / 10 40 80 60 80 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$