Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
272 FXUS64 KFWD 241202 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 602 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms will continue to move across North and Central Texas this morning, with heavy rainfall, localized flooding, and frequent cloud to ground lightning the main threats through the morning. - An increased potential for severe weather may materialize south of I-20 and along/east of I-35 this afternoon into the early evening. All severe weather hazards, including a couple tornadoes, will be possible. - A return to cool and dry conditions is expected by the middle of the week through Thanksgiving Day with highs in the 50s and 60s. Rain chances return next weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 600 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 A broken line of showers and storms is currently moving across North and Central Texas, and will continue its eastward progression through the rest of the morning and afternoon. There have been some observations of severe caliber hail and wind gusts within the more robust portions of the line, but frequent lightning and heavy rain will be the main impact during the morning commute. The severe threat is still expected to increase across eastern Central Texas this afternoon, with large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards. Higher dewpoints are starting to spread across our southern counties, and this moisture will need to be watched on top of any better diurnal stabilization to better assess any potential increased localized tornado threat this afternoon. The forecast was not changed much from the overnight, so the discussions below are still valid. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 139 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 Showers and storms are expected to continue to develop to our west/southwest and spread across our northwest counties as a small disturbance moves across the region towards Missouri. This trend will persist over the next handful of hours as waves of convection spreads from SE to NW as those minute shortwaves eject out of the main upper low, currently churning through Colorado and Kansas. Convective coverage will increase across our west and northwest counties through the early morning as the upper low spreads increased lift overtop the region, with showers and storms developing and growing into messy cluster/line segments near the dryline/Pacific front to our west. Over the first half of today, the surface dryline/front and the showers/storms out ahead of the boundary will be ushered eastward as the upper low begins to move towards the Great Lakes. Training storms that are very efficient rainfall producers will increase the flood threat, particularly across North Texas where a majority of the heavy rain from last week`s event fell. The morning commute across much of western and central North Texas (including portions of the I-35 and I-20 corridors) will be impacted today near peak AM rush hour, so make sure to check road conditions, give yourself plenty of time to get to your destination, and drive slowly to avoid hydroplaning! By noon (timing of latest guidance), our messy showers and storms are expected to be mainly near and east of I-35, and will continue to advance east the rest of the afternoon. The increased flood threat will have shifted into eastern North Texas, with the Flood Watch remaining in effect through 3 PM. Overall, most likely totals in North Texas remain 1-3 inches, with isolated amounts up to 4 inches possible in the Watch area. South of I-20, storms may begin to get a little hairy. The environment across our southeastern zones (mainly near/south I-20 and near/east I-35 will have a window of increased instability, with continued steep deep layer shear and mid-level lapse rates. In this kind of environment, storms would be able to become severe with primary threats of large hail and damaging winds. The tornado threat remains low at this time, but the exact extent remains uncertain. While forecast soundings show decent SBCAPE and 0-1km SRH, and 0-1km shear, dense cloud cover is expected to linger across the southeast the majority of the day. This which would inhibit better diurnal destabilization. We`ll need to watch for 1. any clearing within the clouds, and 2. the orientation of the low- level wind fields, as that would help to increase instability and spin and locally increase the tornado threat. Showers and storms should come to and end tonight, with gradually clearing skies in their wake. Much quieter conditions are expected behind the exiting rain chances. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 139 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 The exiting storm system`s true cold front will be shunted south across the region late Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing much cooler conditions for the middle of this week. With ridging building in behind the departing longwave trough, expect dry conditions through the end of the week. For those traveling for the Thanksgiving holiday on Wednesday: Expect morning low temperatures ranging from the mid-upper 30s in the northwest to the mid-upper 40s in southern Central Texas. Even under sunny skies, north winds will aid in keeping afternoon highs in the 50s and 60s. No rain chances are forecast on Wednesday. For those traveling on Thursday / celebrating Thanksgiving: Thursday morning will be the coldest morning of the long term forecast, with low temperatures in the mid 30s to around 40. Some isolated areas could reach freezing. The afternoon will feature continued sunny skies and high temperatures again in the 50s and 60s. Once again, the day will be rain-free. By the end of the week, a shortwave disturbance will approach from the west, allowing increased moisture advection. In response, increased rain chances are expected next weekend into early next week. More details will become available in the coming days. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 600 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025 A broken line of showers and storms continues to make its way across the region this morning. The northern portion of the line is exiting D10 as of 12Z, but the southern portion of the line is now entering D10 and will move east-northeast over the next several hours, impacting D10 airport terminals through at least 13-14Z. The southern extent of the line will impact ACT a bit later, likely closer to 17-19Z. MVFR cigs will gradually deteriorate to IFR this morning, and may bounce around as the trailing rain shield and embedded lightning strikes persist until 18Z at D10 and 21Z at ACT. Over the course of the afternoon, winds will veer more westerly and cigs/vis will improve, with VFR returning by mid-late afternoon. Late tonight, winds will shift out of the WNW-NW and this will prevail through the rest of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 70 51 70 43 / 100 0 0 0 Waco 73 50 72 45 / 90 10 0 0 Paris 61 50 66 41 / 100 20 0 0 Denton 69 46 69 38 / 90 0 0 0 McKinney 67 49 68 40 / 100 0 0 0 Dallas 69 52 70 44 / 100 0 0 0 Terrell 66 51 70 43 / 100 10 0 0 Corsicana 72 54 72 46 / 90 30 0 0 Temple 75 50 75 45 / 90 10 0 0 Mineral Wells 73 46 73 40 / 80 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch until 3 PM CST this afternoon for TXZ091>095-100>107- 115>120-123-129. && $$ SHORT TERM...Prater LONG TERM....Prater AVIATION...Prater