Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
799 FXUS64 KFWD 020042 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 642 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Patchy fog will be possible Monday morning across Central Texas. - The next storm system is forecast to sweep across the region Monday night into Tuesday. A few strong to severe storms are possible mainly along/north of I-20. - Dry and breezy conditions are forecast Tuesday after the showers and storms move east. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 139 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 After a morning of low clouds and dense fog across much of North and Central Texas, conditions will continue to improve for the rest of the day. High temperatures will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s, though areas that hold onto cloud cover will remain a few degrees cooler. Otherwise, a mid-level ridge will briefly build in ahead of the next storm system which is expected to arrive tomorrow. Late tonight into early Monday morning, we could see another round of low clouds and fog for portions of the region. While some of the latest models are less aggressive with the coverage, the combination of a moist airmass and southerly flow should allow stratus to return early Monday. Southerly winds will also increase during the afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the approaching system. The upper trough is still forecast to eject toward the central U.S. later in the day, with a surface low and a trailing cold front/dryline setting up to our west and pushing eastward Monday evening into Tuesday. Much of our area will remain fairly stable and capped during the afternoon hours ahead of the surface boundary. While a few isolated storms could develop across our northwestern counties after 4-5 PM, the most favorable area for this initial development remains to our north. We expect scattered showers and storms to initiate to our west after 6 PM, increasing in coverage as they spread eastward Monday night into Tuesday. Most CAMs agree the convective mode will transition into a broken line as it moves across North and Central Texas late Monday evening and overnight. As storms evolve into a line or cluster, the environment will support a QLCS severe weather risk with all hazards possible, though the primary threat will be damaging winds. A key factor in this QLCS evolution will be the line`s orientation relative to the 500 mb flow. Currently, the line appears likely to remain largely parallel to the southwest flow aloft, which could limit the coverage of severe weather to some degree. However, sporadic severe weather remains possible, especially along and north of I-20 into the evening and early overnight hours. We will closely monitor model trends, as any surges or bowing segments within the line could increase the threat for widespread damaging winds and spin-up tornadoes. Continue to check back for updates as new data arrives! Regarding storm timing, most of the activity is expected to move towards East TX by mid morning Tuesday and exit our region during the early afternoon hours. Locally heavy rain may also accompany some of the stronger storms, but the progressive nature of the system should limit the flash flooding potential. Otherwise, clearing skies and breezy northwesterly winds will quickly follow behind the front with speeds around 15-20 mph gusting to around 25 mph most of the afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 139 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 Cooler and drier conditions will prevail Tuesday night through Wednesday as high pressure builds in from the west. This will allow winds to decrease overnight helping the low temperatures to drop into the 40s and lower 50s. Plenty of sunshine and beautiful weather will continue into the afternoon, with highs staying in the lower to mid-70s. The rest of the week will feature pleasant fall weather with dry conditions, highs in the 70s, and overnight lows in the 40s to lower 50s. An upper level disturbance is forecast to sweep across the southern Plains late Thursday into Friday. While the best rain chances will stay north of our area, a reinforcing shot of cooler air will keep Friday`s high temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Looking into the weekend, some guidance shows another mid-to-upper trough approaching the region, while other models keep North and Central Texas dry with near-normal temperatures through the extended period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 548 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026 Despite the sporadic coverage depicted amongst guidance, MVFR ceilings will be possible Monday morning as weak ascent commences amidst a relatively moist environment. Thus, have opted to maintain MVFR from 12-16Z for D10 (BKN025) and from 10-16Z for ACT (BKN020). Given its southern displacement within this pattern, Waco/ACT will have increased chances of IFR impacts and reduced visibilities. Have included a TEMPO for IFR cigs (BKN006) and visibilities (2SM) from 12-15Z to account for this potential. Currently not expecting any visibility restrictions for the D10 airspace. Surface flow will take on an increasingly southerly component and will gradually increase in speed across all terminals through tomorrow afternoon. Speeds of 15-20kts with operationally significant 10+kt gusts to 25-30kts can be expected after 16Z. A line of thunderstorms is progged to approach the I-35 corridor from the west between 06-07Z on Tuesday, just beyond the conclusion of this TAF period. The potential exists for strong to severe hazards in addition to the lightning threat. Confidence in any showers or storms developing ahead of the primary line remains too low, thus precluding TAF inclusion at this time. Current guidance suggests that the line should clear eastern portions of the D10 airspace and ACT by 12Z Tuesday. Being over 24 hours out, fluctuations in timing are possible and will continually be addressed in forthcoming TAF cycles. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 67 84 63 74 / 0 0 90 10 Waco 66 84 65 76 / 0 0 80 50 Paris 63 83 65 74 / 0 10 100 40 Denton 64 84 59 73 / 0 10 80 0 McKinney 64 83 62 73 / 0 0 100 20 Dallas 68 85 65 75 / 0 0 90 20 Terrell 65 84 65 74 / 0 0 90 40 Corsicana 67 84 67 75 / 0 0 80 60 Temple 66 84 65 76 / 0 0 80 60 Mineral Wells 64 83 57 73 / 0 10 70 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sanchez LONG TERM....Sanchez AVIATION...Dornsife