Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
862 FXUS64 KFWD 111814 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 114 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage through Sunday, with the most widespread activity expected Sunday night and Monday. - Locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be the primary concerns, especially where storms move slowly or repeatedly affect the same areas. A few storms may also produce strong downburst winds. - Seasonably hot and rain-free weather will return late next week, with highs climbing back into the upper 90s. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026 A low-amplitude easterly disturbance over South Texas will continue to move around the southern flank of the strengthening mid level ridge centered well north of the region. Meanwhile, persistent southerly flow will maintain a steady supply of Gulf moisture across North and Central Texas. This mornings Fort Worth sounding sampled a PW value near the upper quartile of the daily climatology, with deeper moisture expected to continue spreading north through the end of the period. The hot and moist airmass in place will become increasingly unstable this afternoon, supporting isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The better coverage is favored across Central Texas, where inland-moving Gulf Coast convection, the sea breeze, and remnant outflow boundaries will provide more obvious sources of lift. North Texas will likely remain hotter and more strongly mixed, although convective debris from storms to the south could occasionally encroach on the I-20 corridor and provide brief relief in a few spots. In Central Texas, while storm development could hold temperatures several degrees below forecast highs, areas that remain rain-free through late afternoon will still become quite warm, with highs peaking in the low to mid 90s. With weak flow aloft and little organized large-scale forcing, todays storm evolution will be governed mainly by boundary-layer heating, localized convergence, and interactions between outflow boundaries. Severe weather is not expected to be widespread or organized, but a few stronger storms may produce localized wet microbursts. Precipitation loading within the deeply moist column appears to be the primary mechanism for stronger wind gusts, especially where cells merge or collapse along intersecting boundaries. Brief heavy rain and frequent lightning will accompany any storms. Convective coverage is expected to increase Sunday as the easterly disturbance moves closer and PW values rise to around or above 2 inches across portions of the region. Forecast profiles support moderate instability but generally weak deep- layer flow and skinny CAPE. This environment favors efficient rainfall production and water-loaded downbursts rather than sustained severe storms. A few stronger gusts remain possible, but heavy rain will become the more common concern. There is still considerable uncertainty in Sunday`s timing and favored corridor. Convection developing near the Oklahoma boundary today and tonight may send outflow south toward the Red River, while storms over the Hill Country and South Central Texas could produce a northward moving boundary or weak mesoscale circulation. Either feature may become the focus for earlier storm development Sunday afternoon. In their absence, more widespread activity may hold off until late afternoon or evening as the larger scale disturbance approaches. Rain and storm coverage will likely become more widespread Sunday evening and overnight, including across the DFW Metroplex and western North Texas. This will mark a transition away from a primarily diurnally driven pattern as increasing ascent associated with the easterly disturbance allows convection to persist after sunset. The exact placement of the disturbance and any remnant boundaries will determine where the heaviest rain becomes concentrated. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026 The most active portion of the forecast will continue into Monday as the easterly disturbance moves across Texas beneath a broad ridge displaced well north of the region. Deep Gulf moisture, weak steering flow, and multiple remnant boundaries should support widespread showers and thunderstorms across North and Central Texas. The better coverage and heavier rain signal should gradually become focused across Central and South Texas Monday into Tuesday, although the exact evolution will depend on the track of the embedded disturbance and where previous convection leaves behind the most persistent low level convergence. Cloud cover and repeated rounds of rain should keep temperatures closer to or below seasonal normals in many areas Monday. This will not be uniform, however. Locations that remain between convective clusters for several hours may still warm efficiently, while areas receiving earlier rain could remain considerably cooler. Rain chances should gradually decrease from north to south Tuesday into Wednesday, but the speed of this transition remains uncertain. A slower westward progression of the inverted trough would keep meaningful rain chances in place longer, while a more progressive solution would allow subsidence and drier air to return sooner. By midweek, the persistent upper ridge over the central CONUS should begin to flatten and elongate from west to east. This will place many of the southern states, including Texas, within easterly mid level flow as the inverted trough continues shifting westward. Ridging and subsidence should gradually strengthen later in the week, bringing decreasing storm coverage and a return to hotter conditions. Even then, confidence in a completely dry forecast remains limited until the disturbance fully clears the region. Heavy Rainfall and Flooding Potential: The environment will become increasingly favorable for high rainfall rates from Sunday afternoon through Monday. PW values near or above 2 inches, deep warm-cloud layers, and moderate instability will support efficient rainfall production. Weak steering flow will increase the potential for slow-moving cells and training. The greatest concern will be where a remnant boundary or weak circulation remains nearly stationary for a long period. The primary uncertainty is geographic (location), not whether heavy rain can occur. For this reason, deterministic QPF placement should be treated cautiously in this weakly forced pattern. The corridor of greatest rainfall will likely be established by mesoscale features that may not become apparent until convection is already underway. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1257 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026 VFR conditions and prevailing south winds around 10 to 12 knots will continue through the period. Isolated showers may develop near KACT later this afternoon as Gulf moisture and weak boundaries continue moving inland, warranting a brief VCSH mention, but confidence in direct terminal impacts remains low given scattered coverage. Attention then turns to Sunday afternoon as remnant outflow boundaries settle south from Oklahoma and interact with an increasingly moist and unstable airmass. Thunderstorm timing remains uncertain, but the better signal for convection near D10 arrives around or after 20Z, with the greatest potential for terminal impacts closer to 00Z. VCTS has been introduced at KDFW for the extended portion of the TAF. Gusty and erratic winds, brief visibility reductions, and locally lower ceilings will be possible near any storms. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 79 97 77 94 / 10 40 50 30 Waco 76 95 76 92 / 10 30 40 70 Paris 74 93 72 90 / 30 50 50 30 Denton 77 95 74 94 / 10 40 50 20 McKinney 78 96 75 92 / 10 40 60 20 Dallas 80 97 77 95 / 10 40 60 30 Terrell 76 95 74 93 / 10 40 60 40 Corsicana 76 96 77 93 / 10 40 50 70 Temple 75 96 76 92 / 20 30 30 70 Mineral Wells 75 96 72 93 / 0 40 50 40 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...12