Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
281 FXUS64 KFWD 181051 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 551 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Elevated fire weather concerns will continue into this weekend, particularly along and west of the I-35 corridor. - Slightly cooler weather with low (20-30%) rain chances return from Sunday into next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026 Hot and rain-free weather will close out the workweek and begin the weekend as anomalously strong mid-level heights prevail overhead. A 598mb H500 ridge axis will promote another afternoon of near-record high temperatures today with highs in the upper 90s to around 102. Dewpoints should mix out rather aggressively across much of the CWA once again with values in the lower 60s or even upper 50s, and this will keep heat index values very close to ambient temperatures with Heat Advisory criteria unlikely to be met. The resultant low RH values may allow for increased wildfire activity, although more modest wind speeds of 5-10 mph will prevent the fire weather threat from reaching formally elevated levels. This may change on Saturday however, as RH values will fall as low as 25% with slightly stronger southerly winds up to 15 mph. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1138 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026 A gradual breakdown of the upper ridge axis will lead to a slightly more active pattern to end the weekend and begin next week, with at least some low rain chances and marginally cooler temperatures on the horizon. The first in a series of Central Plains and Midwest shortwaves will pull a frontal zone into parts of the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma on Sunday. Convection along this boundary may be able to vaguely organize and push into our northern and western zones sometime Sunday afternoon/night with PoPs of 20-30% indicated roughly from the DFW Metroplex west and north. Given the thermodynamic environment, at least a few robust storms or small linear segments with strong wind gusts and hail are a possibility. The front itself or perhaps one or more outflow boundaries will likely be draped through parts of North Texas heading into Monday which should allow for isolated/scattered redevelopment aided by diurnal destabilization as the upper ridge remains displaced sufficiently south of the area. Once again, a few strong storms with hail and downburst wind threats would be a possibility. On Tuesday, a deeper Midwest shortwave will send a secondary stronger frontal boundary southward through the Plains, and this front appears increasingly likely that it will push through most of the CWA, perhaps accompanied by additional isolated/scattered convective activity. While still devoid of a significantly cooler post-frontal airmass, this boundary would at least serve to knock temperatures back to near seasonal norms in the upper 80s and lower 90s during the midweek period, while also delivering lower dewpoints in the 50s and lower 60s. While still a far cry from a typical early fall cold front, this scenario would stave off the triple-digit and record-setting temps through the extended forecast period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 545 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026 VFR will prevail through tonight, while light winds of 5-10 kts vary between SSE and SSW. Cloud cover will consist of some daytime cumulus near 7 kft along with SCT cirrus. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 99 77 99 78 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 98 73 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 99 72 98 73 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 99 75 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 99 74 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 100 77 100 78 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 99 72 98 73 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 98 72 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 99 72 98 73 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 99 72 99 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Stalley LONG TERM....Stalley AVIATION...Stalley