108
FXUS64 KFWD 171910
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
210 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably hot and humid conditions are forecast through this
  upcoming weekend. Peak heat indices in the 90s to 100 are
  expected each afternoon.

- There is a low chance (20-30%) of thunderstorms late Wednesday
  evening and Wednesday night mainly north of I-20. A few of
  these storms could become severe.



&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1232 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/
/Today through Wednesday Afternoon/

A tranquil day is in store for North and Central Texas.
Prevailing mid-level ridging, partly sunny skies, and southerly
winds will promote another warm day with highs in the 90s.
Continued moist dew points will force afternoon heat indices up
between the mid 90s to around 103. While the afternoon
temperatures are generally near normal, the increased heat
indices will make spending excess time outside feel quite
stifling. Make sure to stay hydrated and keep cool! Well to our
north, a cold front is draped across the TX/OK Panhandles into
western New Mexico, and will gradually move south as its upper
level support approaches the Continental Divide.

The mid-level shortwave trough will continue to trek eastward
across the Central Plains as we head into midweek. This
disturbance will send the attached cold front south towards
western North Texas overnight through much of the day Wednesday.
As this front approaches the region, the frontal lift will work
in tandem with the moist and unstable airmass to allow for an
increased chance for showers and storms near and along the frontal
boundary. Isolated to scattered storms will be mainly confined to
near the Red River over Wednesday afternoon, with most activity
remaining across Oklahoma. Enough instability and shear will be
present to account for a low severe threat of hail and winds with
any storm that is able to get going. Otherwise, expect a warm and
humid afternoon with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s and heat
indices reaching between 94-103 degrees.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Wednesday Night Onward/

Showers and storms will likely spread further south into North
Texas late Wednesday as the front temporarily stalls to our
north, with severe storms remaining possible. Otherwise, the rest
of the forecast will be warm, humid, and mostly dry, as ridging
meanders across the CONUS. Peak heat indices will reach the 90s
to around 100 each afternoon. Sea breeze storms are expected to
mostly remain to our south each day, but may encroach on our
Central Texas counties over the weekend into next week.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1232 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/
/18Z TAFs/

Gusty south winds are expected to continue at all TAF sites
through tomorrow morning. While VFR will prevail the rest of
today, a surge in MVFR stratus is expected to move north across
portions of North and Central Texas overnight, impacting the
airports from just before daybreak and the morning push. The MVFR
cloud deck will eventually lift back to VFR by the afternoon, with
persisting gusty south winds.

Prater

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  93  77  93  77 /   0   5  30  10   5
Waco                76  93  75  92  75 /   0   5   5  10   0
Paris               75  90  73  90  72 /   0  10  40  20   0
Denton              76  93  74  93  75 /   0   5  30  10   0
McKinney            77  93  74  92  75 /   0  10  30  10   5
Dallas              77  94  77  94  78 /   0   5  20  10   5
Terrell             75  91  74  91  74 /   0   5  20  10   5
Corsicana           77  93  76  92  76 /   0   5  10  10   5
Temple              74  94  74  93  74 /   0   5   5  10   0
Mineral Wells       76  95  73  94  73 /   5   5  30  10   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$