Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
253 FXUS64 KFWD 031050 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 550 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Periodic storm chances will continue Wednesday into the weekend. The severe weather threat is low, but strong storms could produce gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 101 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026 Convection from earlier has dissipated across the region with a canopy of high clouds left behind. The rest of the night will be quiet with rain cooled air resulting in overnight lows in the upper 60s and low 70s. The overall pattern won`t change much going into Wednesday with North Texas between stronger ridging to the east and a slow moving upper trough over northwest Mexico. While large scale forcing for ascent will be displaced to our west, a deep easterly flow will keep moisture content high in our area through the afternoon. Drier air beneath the ridging to the east should set up a moisture gradient which will be draped across North Texas this afternoon and should serve as a focus for scattered storms during peak heating. Otherwise, more pronounced outflow boundaries from earlier convection appear to have pushed out of North Texas. We`ll keep PoPs at 20% Wednesday afternoon and evening with higher chances remaining out to our west. Any afternoon/evening storms should wind down after dark with a mostly quiet night expected and temps in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Dunn && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 101 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026 Periodic storm chances will continue Thursday through the weekend as the aforementioned upper trough over northern Mexico slowly spreads across Texas and into the Plains. With the upper ridge firmly to our east on Thursday, PoPs will tick upward by late afternoon. Similar PoPs are expected on Friday with the region beneath weak ascent ahead of the upper trough. Our best chances for rain/storms appears to occur on Saturday as the upper trough finally moves into North Texas and is aided by an 80 kt upper jet across the region. While severe weather is not really expected on a large scale, a good coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected with a few of the storms capable of hail/gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall. Rain chances will diminish some headed into early next week as weak ridging tries to build in behind the departing upper trough. Dunn && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 548 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026 VFR generally prevails across the region, but some pockets of reduced visibility are noted in outlying areas from the major airports. A small area of MVFR cigs has also developed across the eastern parts of the D10 airspace and we`ll have a TEMPO for BKN025 cigs from 12-13Z. Otherwise, the main concern will be for additional TS development this afternoon, although coverage should be less than yesterday. Confidence in even semi-organized TS development this afternoon is low so we`ll leave it out of the TAFs for now, but will continue to monitor. Winds will gradually become southeast overnight with some potential for MVFR again Thursday morning. Dunn && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 90 73 87 73 / 20 10 30 10 Waco 88 71 85 71 / 20 20 30 20 Paris 87 70 84 70 / 10 10 30 10 Denton 88 71 86 72 / 10 10 30 10 McKinney 88 71 85 71 / 10 10 30 10 Dallas 91 73 88 73 / 20 10 30 10 Terrell 89 71 87 70 / 20 10 30 10 Corsicana 90 72 88 72 / 20 10 30 10 Temple 89 71 86 71 / 20 20 30 20 Mineral Wells 88 69 85 70 / 20 20 30 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$