Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
483 FXUS64 KFWD 251834 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 134 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend with highs generally in the 90s. - Low rain chances return to parts of North Texas this weekend, but most locations will remain dry. - A more active weather pattern will bring widespread rain chances and more seasonable temperatures to North and Central Texas by the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 The persistent late summer ridge will continue to lose its grip on the region through Saturday as a series of disturbances work around its northern periphery. Despite the weakening ridge, subsidence should remain sufficient to keep most of North and Central Texas dry through Saturday afternoon, with showers and thunderstorms remaining mostly north and west of the forecast area. One low probability scenario to watch will be whether convection to our west produces a sufficiently strong outflow boundary to push farther east than currently forecast before activity diminishes this evening. Otherwise, another hot afternoon is expected with temperatures well into the 90s. Afternoon humidity will fall to around 30-40 percent in some areas, but modest wind speeds should keep the overall fire weather threat low. Still, hot temperatures and increasingly dry fuels may support locally elevated initial attack potential during peak heating. A shortwave trough lifting through the Plains will continue to flatten the ridge tonight into Saturday, allowing showers and thunderstorms to develop across portions of West Texas and Oklahoma. Most of this activity should remain northwest of our forecast area overnight as convection encounters weaker instability and increasing influence from the ridge with southeastward extent. Another hot afternoon is expected Saturday with highs largely in the 90s. The weakening ridge will provide a somewhat more favorable environment for isolated convection across western North Texas, but development will remain conditional on any lingering outflow boundaries or differential heating zones beneath otherwise modest large scale forcing. Another disturbance will move over the top of the ridge Saturday night, encouraging convection to propagate east-southeast into/across North Texas. This activity should gradually weaken as it approaches, but some showers and thunderstorms may survive south of the Red River Sunday morning. Rain chances will decrease quickly with southward extent, with decreasing probabilities extending toward the I-20 corridor. How far convection ultimately progresses will depend on its organization upstream, with a mature cold pool and sustained low-level inflow potentially allowing storms to persist farther south than currently forecast. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 Any showers and thunderstorms that survive into North Texas Sunday morning should continue to weaken through the afternoon. Otherwise, Sunday and Monday will serve as a transition between the departing ridge and a much more active pattern developing to our west. Temperatures will remain above normal with highs largely in the 90s, while strengthening southerly flow gradually returns deeper Gulf moisture to the region. Additional isolated showers or thunderstorms cannot be ruled out Sunday afternoon near any lingering boundaries, with somewhat better rain chances spreading into East Texas by Monday as moisture continues to increase and weak disturbances pass through the flow. A deep Pacific trough will dive southeast along the California coast Sunday and Monday before pivoting through the Desert Southwest on Tuesday. Meanwhile, moisture associated with the remnants of two eastern Pacific tropical systems should become increasingly drawn northeastward ahead of the trough, supplementing the returning Gulf moisture already in place. Rain chances will begin increasing from west to east Tuesday afternoon as leading disturbances approach, but Tuesday should largely serve as the transition into the wetter midweek portion of the forecast. As the trough advances east, surface cyclogenesis and an associated Pacific front will provide a more substantial focus for showers and thunderstorms, with widespread rain chances currently peaking Wednesday. Increasing clouds and precipitation followed by the eventual frontal passage should also finally bring temperatures down from the persistent above-normal readings of the past several weeks. There remains considerable uncertainty in exactly how next weeks system evolves, particularly regarding the speed, depth, and trajectory of the upper trough and its interaction with the tropical moisture plume. Ensemble guidance continues to advertise scenarios ranging from a more progressive and northerly trough with lower rainfall totals to a deeper, slower system capable of maintaining rich moisture and forcing over North and Central Texas for a longer period. Thus, confidence is much higher that a wetter and eventually cooler pattern will develop than in exactly where the heaviest rain will fall or how long precipitation will persist. Following nearly two months of predominantly below-normal rainfall, this pattern may offer the first opportunity for meaningful rainfall across much of North and Central Texas in quite some time, but rainfall amounts will depend heavily on how these features ultimately interact. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026 VFR will prevail through the period with only passing high clouds. Light easterly winds around 5-7 kts will gradually veer to the southeast later this afternoon and evening. Showers and thunderstorms developing across West Texas this afternoon and evening should remain well west of the terminals. No significant impacts are anticipated through the current period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 73 95 75 96 / 0 0 10 30 Waco 70 95 72 97 / 0 0 0 10 Paris 67 92 69 95 / 0 0 0 20 Denton 70 95 72 97 / 0 0 10 30 McKinney 68 94 70 96 / 0 0 10 20 Dallas 73 95 75 97 / 0 0 10 20 Terrell 68 94 70 96 / 0 0 0 20 Corsicana 68 93 71 95 / 0 0 0 10 Temple 70 95 71 98 / 0 0 0 10 Mineral Wells 70 95 70 98 / 0 10 10 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...12