Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
371 FXUS64 KFWD 191042 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 542 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - High temperatures will continue to exceed 100 degrees for the next several days. An Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory remain in effect for portions of the area. - There is a very low chance for thunderstorms in parts of Northeast Texas Thursday afternoon and evening, but most areas will remain rain-free into next week. - The hot temperatures and low afternoon humidity may contribute to increased wildfire starts for the next few days. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 1148 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026 Another hot and dry afternoon is in store with temperatures near or above 105 across much of North Texas, and from about 102-105 across Central Texas. An Extreme Heat Warning and Heat Advisory remain in effect for these areas, respectively, and no adjustments to their configurations were necessary through today. The upper ridge axis will begin to retreat westward while amplifying later today into Thursday. This rather minor pattern shift will do little to bring any relief from the heat, other than perhaps shave a couple degrees off of highs through the end of the workweek. The resultant northerly mid-level flow may be sufficient to allow a weak frontal boundary to advance towards parts of North Texas late Thursday afternoon, and this feature could support isolated thunderstorm activity. We`ll advertise a slim 20% chance for thunderstorms across our northeastern zones during this time period, and these will be the only rain chances shown in the forecast for the next several days. With low humidity and exceptionally hot afternoons, additional grass fire activity is also likely, but modest wind speeds will continue to prevent the fire weather threat from reaching elevated levels. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1148 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026 Excessively hot and predominantly rain-free weather will prevail through most of the extended forecast period. The GFS suite of guidance continues to be a wet outlier for Friday, initiating convection along the weak surface front/trough that will have drifted into the area late in the workweek. While additional isolated thunderstorms are possible, the chances for this scenario to materialize are too low to warrant more than silent 10% storm chances in the forecast at this time. The upper ridge axis will still remain displaced west of the area Friday and Saturday, and this may keep high temperatures mostly to Heat Advisory levels of 103-105 with similar heat indices. However, an eastward expansion of the ridge is forecast to occur from Sunday into next week, and this should allow more widespread readings of 105 or higher to resume. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 537 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026 VFR will prevail through the period with a south/southwest wind around 10 kt. There will be a small increase in cirrus through the daytime today. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 82 105 82 105 / 0 0 0 10 Waco 79 102 80 102 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 80 104 78 102 / 0 20 0 0 Denton 82 105 80 104 / 0 0 0 10 McKinney 81 104 80 103 / 0 10 0 10 Dallas 83 106 82 105 / 0 0 0 10 Terrell 79 104 79 104 / 0 10 0 0 Corsicana 78 102 79 103 / 0 0 0 10 Temple 76 102 78 103 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 77 106 77 106 / 0 0 0 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095- 100>107-115>123-129>134. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ135-141>148- 156>162-174-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...Stalley LONG TERM....Stalley AVIATION...Stalley