Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
939 FXUS64 KFWD 301007 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 507 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisories remain in effect for parts of North and Central Texas through this evening. Heat index values between 105-109 can be expected. - There is a low chance for showers/storms late Friday evening into Saturday as a weak cold front moves through North and Central Texas. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 125 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026 Upper ridging will remain anchored over eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle through Thursday keeping hot and dry conditions over North and Central Texas. Expect afternoon highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s Thursday afternoon with peak heat index values in the 105-109 degree range. A Heat Advisory is in effect for much of North and Central Texas, outside of a handful of Big Country counties, through Thursday evening. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 125 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026 By Friday, a shortwave trough will dive southeast out of the northern Great Plains over parts of the Midwest shunting the upper ridge west toward the Four Corners region placing North and Central Texas beneath north-northwesterly flow. This will allow a weak cold front to approach our Red River counties by late Friday evening. Ahead of this front, veering surface winds and compressional warming will drive temperatures up into the 100-105 degree range across most of our forecast area with heat index values potentially topping 110+ degrees. This may necessitate an Extreme Heat Warning across parts of North Texas Friday afternoon. 1.8-2.1" PWATs will pool ahead of this frontal boundary and may allow for a few isolated showers/storms near the Red River as early as Friday evening. Greater coverage (20-40% chance) of showers and storms is expected Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon as the frontal boundary slides south of I-20 and into parts of Central Texas. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but a few storms may be capable of strong downburst winds. Most locations will unfortunately remain dry. Drier air will filter in behind the frontal boundary effectively shutting off any low rain chances by Saturday night. Light north- northeasterly winds will prevail into Sunday allowing for slightly "cooler" afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. However, by Monday winds will return out of the southeast and ridging will expand back over the Southern Plains causing temperatures to gradually climb back into the upper 90s as we head into the next work week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 507 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026 VFR conditions with south winds (160-210) at 5-12 kts will prevail through the TAF period at all North and Central Texas terminals. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 101 82 104 82 / 0 0 0 10 Waco 100 78 100 79 / 0 0 0 30 Paris 97 78 99 78 / 0 0 0 10 Denton 102 80 104 80 / 0 0 0 10 McKinney 99 80 101 80 / 0 0 0 10 Dallas 102 83 104 83 / 0 0 0 10 Terrell 99 78 102 79 / 0 0 0 20 Corsicana 99 79 101 79 / 0 0 0 30 Temple 99 76 100 77 / 0 0 0 20 Mineral Wells 101 76 103 76 / 0 0 0 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107- 116>123-131>135-144>148-157>162-174-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...Langfeld LONG TERM....Langfeld AVIATION...Langfeld