Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
917 FXUS64 KFWD 301817 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 117 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisories remain in effect for parts of North and Central Texas through Friday. Heat index values between 105-109 can be expected today and tomorrow. - There is a low chance for showers/storms late Friday evening into Saturday as a weak cold front moves through North and Central Texas. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 117 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026 The upper-level ridge will remain planted atop the Southern Plains today. Continued subsident air, mostly sunny skies, and southerly winds will allow temperatures to peak in the upper 90s to around 102. We continue to mix out a bit more in the afternoons compared to the NBM guidance, so have lowered dewpoints slightly this afternoon. Nonetheless, modest humidity will push heat index values into the upper 90s to around 109. The Heat Advisory currently in effect for portions of North and Central Texas this afternoon remains unchanged. An upper-level shortwave is expected to move towards the Great Lakes tomorrow, shunting the ridge back to the west over the day tomorrow. This pattern shift will allow a cold front to slide south over the day, approaching the Red River tomorrow evening. Out ahead of the incoming front, surface winds are expected to shift a bit more out of the southwest, which will promote increased afternoon temperatures. Expect highs on Friday to peak in the upper 90s to around 104, with the hottest temperatures generally across North Texas. Heat indices will again peak in the upper 90s to around 109, and a Heat Advisory has been issued for much of North Texas and eastern Central Texas for heat indices above 105. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 117 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026 The front will continue to advance south Friday evening into Saturday, shifting winds out of the north-northeast. Abundant moisture looks to pool just along/ahead of the frontal boundary late Friday, allowing for some isolated shower and storm development near the Red River going into early Saturday morning. Additional development looks to occur after the front pushes south of the I-20 corridor during the day Saturday, with isolated- scattered coverage likely. With any storm during the afternoon hours, there may be a threat for gusty downburst winds and brief, heavy rain. Caution should be taken if on or around area lakes as lightning and gusty winds in/around storms will be hazardous to those outdoors. The front will push south of the region late Saturday, effectively cutting off any additional rain chances. Expect slightly cooler temperatures over the weekend in the wake of the cold front, with afternoon highs on Saturday and Sunday peaking in the low to upper 90s. Looking further into next week, expect the upper-level ridge to gradually shift back over top the Southern Plains throughout next week along with a return of southerly winds, promoting a warming trend back to highs in the upper 90s to around 101-102 early next week. Heat indices will likely return into the triple digits for much of the region Tuesday onward, and additional Heat Advisories may be needed. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 117 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026 Expect southerly winds around 9-13 kt and VFR to prevail the next 24- 30 hours at all TAF sites. Cloud cover will consist of occasional mid-upper level clouds and diurnal cumulus. No aviation concerns are anticipated. Towards the end of the period, a cold front will approach the Red River late tomorrow night. This front will be accompanied by a N-NE wind shift and a chance for isolated showers and storms. At this time, it looks like the D10 terminals will remain dry, but this wind shift will be included in future issuances. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 101 81 103 81 / 0 0 0 10 Waco 100 77 100 78 / 0 0 0 20 Paris 99 78 100 78 / 0 0 0 10 Denton 101 79 103 78 / 0 0 0 10 McKinney 99 79 102 79 / 0 0 0 10 Dallas 101 82 104 82 / 0 0 0 10 Terrell 99 77 100 78 / 0 0 0 20 Corsicana 99 78 101 79 / 0 0 0 30 Temple 100 75 99 76 / 0 0 0 10 Mineral Wells 101 75 104 76 / 0 0 0 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for TXZ091>095-100>107- 116>123-131>135-146>148-162. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ144-145-157>161- 174-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...Prater LONG TERM....Prater AVIATION...Prater