Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
292 FXUS64 KFWD 291955 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 155 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms will continue to develop along and ahead of a cold front today. Some storms near and east of Interstate 35 could become strong to marginally severe with hail and gusty winds. - Much colder and windy conditions are expected behind the front, with wind chills on Sunday morning dropping into the mid teens to upper 20s. - Some light rain will return Monday into Monday night. The potential for freezing precipitation remains low, but we can`t rule out a brief window of light sleet or freezing rain near the Red River early Monday morning. No impacts are expected. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 154 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 While our early morning showers exit into East Texas, additional showers and storms are expected to continue to develop along and ahead of a strong cold front as an upper-level shortwave swings into the eastern CONUS. The front has breached our northwestern counties as of 145 PM and will steadily move south-southeast, reaching the DFW Metroplex around 3 PM, and finally entering Central Texas closer to 5-6 PM. Convective coverage along the boundary will increase throughout the afternoon, growing into more messy clusters as the boundary moves east of the I-35 corridor. While the overall severe threat remains low, enough instability and deep layer shear will allow for a few strong to marginally severe storms this afternoon and evening capable of hail and gusty winds for areas mainly near and east of I-35. Our showers and storms will come to an end late tonight as the front exits the region. Behind the front, strong winds will usher in much cooler temperatures, with temperatures dropping into the mid 20s to upper 30s across much of the region by Sunday morning. Continued breezy conditions overnight will keep wind chills in the teens to low 30s on Sunday morning, making for a positively chilly end to the weekend. Afternoon highs will only peak in the 40s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 154 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 Over Sunday night into Monday morning another shortwave disturbance will be swinging into the Plains, ushering in more substantial low-level moisture and cloud cover across the region. Due to this increased cloud cover, along with the fact that the latest cluster analysis only has a low chance for sub-freezing temperatures (20-30% or lower) on Monday, have upped minimum temperatures from base NBM. Expect low temperatures to bottom out in the low-mid 30s to low 40s. Isentropic ascent overtop the cooler post-frontal airmass will allow for low rain chances to spread northward out ahead of the incoming shortwave starting early Monday morning. Best chances will be located in areas east of I-35. Most (if not all) of Monday`s early morning precipitation will fall as liquid rain. However, with temperatures approaching freezing near the Red River, we cannot rule out a few spits of sleet or freezing rain in this area. Looking further into the atmospheric profile, soundings show an elevated warm nose with a very shallow (if even present at all) re-freezing layer just above the surface. This borderline profile is not conducive to a well- rounded freezing precipitation event, and with diurnal warming beginning after daybreak, little to no impacts or accumulations are expected to occur. We`ll have another re-enforcing shot of cold air on Tuesday, with morning lows dropping into the mid 20s to mid 30s, before a warming trend takes place the rest of the week. An unsettled weather pattern will take residence over the latter half of the week as another shortwave is expected to develop to our west and bring more rain chances. Additional details on this will come soon. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 154 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025 Southerly winds continue at the TAF sites early this afternoon, but will gradually veer westerly over the next few hours out ahead of an incoming cold front. MVFR cigs < 2 kft will gradually lift over the next few hours, returning to VFR by mid-late afternoon. Expect an uptick in showers and perhaps an isolated storm out ahead of the front this afternoon at the TAF sites. The front is expected to move through D10 around 21Z, and ACT closer to 23Z, with best chances for showers and storms late this afternoon into the early evening (21-00Z for D10, 23-02Z for ACT). Exact coverage of storms along the front is still uncertain, and have foregone any TEMPO -TSRA at this time due to this spotty coverage near the I-35 corridor. Behind the front, expect strong northerly winds to persist overnight into Sunday morning with VFR expected to prevail. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 33 44 36 43 / 10 0 20 40 Waco 36 46 39 46 / 40 0 20 50 Paris 30 45 34 38 / 20 0 20 60 Denton 28 43 34 42 / 0 0 20 30 McKinney 31 43 34 41 / 10 0 20 50 Dallas 33 45 37 44 / 20 0 20 40 Terrell 33 46 36 43 / 30 0 20 60 Corsicana 37 48 39 45 / 60 0 20 60 Temple 38 47 39 47 / 40 10 20 40 Mineral Wells 30 46 34 47 / 0 0 20 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Prater LONG TERM....Prater AVIATION...Prater