Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
264 FXUS64 KFWD 291927 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 227 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 ...New Short Term, Aviation, Long Term... .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms will affect parts of Central Texas this afternoon. - Thunderstorms will periodically impact the area through the entire duration of Labor Day weekend. While severe weather is unlikely, those with outdoor plans should stay aware of the potential for heavy rainfall, flooding, gusty winds, and lightning. - Following slightly cooler temperatures over the weekend, highs will return to the upper 80s and 90s next week. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Saturday/ Much cooler temperatures are ongoing across parts of North and Central Texas in response to yesterday`s cold front. For North Texas, dense cloud cover has deflected much of the insolation, leading to temperatures in the 70s (20+ degF cooler than yesterday). The front continues to slowly advance southward, moving through all of Central Texas through the rest of the evening. With warmer conditions across Central Texas, additional showers and storms are expected through this evening in Central Texas. Brief heavy rainfall along with gusty winds will be the main concern. Brief heavy rainfall may lead to quick ponding, however, overall flash flooding potential will remain low. Overnight, precipitation chances will be at at a relative minimum as today`s shortwave moves off to the southeast and we await the arrival of the next system. Our next rain chances will arrive prior to sunrise tomorrow morning as another complex of showers arrives from the northwest. This complex will originate from the Texas Panhandle and migrate to the southeast. With better forcing remaining north of our region, a gradual weakening trend is expected as it moves across North and Central Texas. Nonetheless, expect showers and storms to move across the area tomorrow morning. Continued cloud cover tomorrow will yield temperatures in the 80s across the region with relatively light winds out of the northeast. The front will be draped from northwest to southeast tomorrow afternoon with all of North and Central Texas in the post-frontal airmass. Increased near-surface convergence in the afternoon will lead to another resurgence of thunderstorms just to our south, however, a few storms cannot be ruled out within our Central Texas counties. Similar to today`s weather, tomorrows`s storms will have a potential to produce gusty winds along with brief heavy rainfall. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ Update: The previous long-term discussion remains valid as guidance continues to hint at additional thunderstorms impacting North and Central Texas through the weekend. For those celebrating outdoors this holiday weekend, stay weather aware as multiple rounds of storms are expected through the Monday. Hernandez Previous Discussion: /Saturday Night Onward/ Additional convection is expected to blossom along the frontal boundary from the Big Country eastward along the stationary frontal zone beginning Saturday night and continuing into Sunday morning. This will pose a risk for flooding, with some higher res guidance indicating localized rainfall totals exceeding 3 inches across some of our western zones. Scattered thunderstorms then will be possible anywhere within the CWA through the rest of the day, with placement dictated by residual outflow boundaries from preceding convection. A similar setup can be expected heading into Monday which will allow storm chances to persist through the remainder of the holiday weekend. Heavy rain and flooding will remain the primary concern, with strong/gusty outflow winds also possible with stronger cells. Despite a lack of organized severe weather potential, those with outdoor plans (especially boaters and campers) will want to remain aware of the weather for the entirety of the holiday weekend. By Tuesday or Wednesday, a stronger mid-level shortwave digging southward within increasingly meridional flow will send another front through the forecast area, perhaps accompanied by additional scattered thunderstorms. While most ensemble members favor a drier post-frontal solution through the midweek period, a smaller percentage of guidance does linger ascent behind the frontal boundary through the midweek period which could result in additional low precip chances. For now, the forecast will remain dry during this extended period in favor of the ensemble means. Despite the passage of this cold front, less cloud cover and precipitation will limit its effect on ambient temperatures, and the late summer sun will still allow highs to reach the upper 80s and 90s through the midweek period. -Stalley && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18z TAFs/ Improving conditions are ongoing across North and Central Texas after the bout of LIFR/mist this morning. Expect continued improvements as we go through the morning with most of the precipitation remaining south of the TAF sites. A few lingering showers or even an isolated storm cannot be ruled out through the afternoon near KACT. Tonight, as the lower atmosphere cools, a return to IFR is likely across all North Texas TAF sites. The IFR will persist through the mid-morning hours before improvements develop in the afternoon. A decaying area of showers and isolated storms will be approaching the D10 airspace during the late morning hours, leading to a potential for showers to impact the terminals. Any rain should move off to the east by the afternoon, leaving behind lingering low clouds with generally light northeasterly winds. Hernandez && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 81 72 84 73 82 / 20 20 40 60 70 Waco 92 74 85 72 81 / 40 30 50 60 80 Paris 74 68 84 69 83 / 40 10 10 30 40 Denton 78 70 83 70 84 / 20 20 40 60 70 McKinney 79 70 83 71 83 / 20 20 30 50 60 Dallas 82 73 85 73 83 / 20 20 40 50 70 Terrell 81 71 85 71 82 / 30 20 30 40 70 Corsicana 87 74 88 74 83 / 40 30 40 50 70 Temple 96 74 88 71 83 / 50 30 40 50 80 Mineral Wells 81 71 84 70 82 / 10 20 60 70 90 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$