Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
695 FXUS64 KFWD 091806 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1206 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will fall below freezing across much of North and Central Texas tonight into Monday morning. A Freeze Warning is in effect for most of the area. - Following a warmer and rain-free workweek, rain chances return to the area next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday) Issued at 1010 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 A chilly and brisk fall day is unfolding in the wake of last night`s cold front. Breezy north winds are being observed across the region, with wind speeds mostly between 15-20 mph and gusts around 30 mph. Breezy conditions will continue through the afternoon, though we should remain just below Wind Advisory criteria. Despite abundant sunshine, strong cold air advection will offset daytime warming, with high temperatures ranging from the mid 50s along the Red River to mid 60s in Central Texas. The breezy/gusty conditions will subside this evening, with a light north wind prevailing through the remainder of the short term period. Light winds, clear skies, and low humidity will set the stage for a chilly night tonight, with many locations expected to experience their first freeze of the fall season as low temperatures bottom out in the mid 20s to low 30s. Latest guidance has come in a bit colder across Central Texas, now advertising a 20-40% chance of sub-freezing temperatures across Lampasas, Coryell, Bell, and Milam counties. Therefore, the Freeze Warning has been expanded in area to account for this increasing potential. Another chilly but pleasant day is expected on Monday as a surface high settles across the region. Expect high temperatures in the 50s areawide Monday afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 1010 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 Following a chilly start to the week, we`ll quickly warm up on Tuesday with the return of southerly winds. Humidity will remain scoured from the region, with relative humidity dropping to 15-25% across much of the area Tuesday afternoon. As winds also become breezy during the afternoon hours, an elevated wildfire threat may materialize along and west of the I-35 corridor. A warming trend will persist through the remainder of the work week, with high temperatures returning to the upper 70s to mid 80s Thursday and Friday. Rain-free weather will prevail throughout the week, but there is now a fairly strong signal that a pattern shift may begin to unfold next weekend. There is good agreement among ensemble members that rain chances will return sometime next weekend. This could be as early as next Saturday or perhaps in the Sunday-Monday timeframe, but timing will be dependent upon the evolution of an upper trough/low. Either way, it looks like we`ll be heading into a more active period of weather from next weekend onward, which will likely be accompanied by cooler air as well. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1010 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 VFR will continue through the period, with breezy/gusty north winds through the afternoon. Sustained winds will be between 15-20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots or so. Winds will weaken this evening, decreasing to around 10 knots or less by 05-06Z tonight. North winds AOB 10 knots will prevail tonight through the end of the TAF period, with south winds not expected to return until Monday evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 34 54 40 70 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 31 56 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 28 51 33 66 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 28 53 36 71 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 31 53 37 69 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 35 55 41 69 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 30 54 35 69 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 33 56 38 70 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 33 58 35 71 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 28 58 37 77 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday for TXZ091>095-101>107-116>123-130>135-143>148-156>162-174-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM....Barnes AVIATION...Barnes