041
FXUS64 KFWD 272358
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
658 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms (15-25% chance) continue to
  be possible near the Red River through the early evening.

- Seasonably hot conditions will continue through the weekend into
  next week with highs in the 90s. Afternoon heat indices will
  rise to near 103 each afternoon.

- There is a chance of storms, mainly across North Texas, Monday
  through Wednesday of next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Saturday Afternoon/

Regional WSR-88D radar shows the remnants of this afternoon`s
scattered convection remains just north of the Red River Valley
with the associated outflow boundary draped across our
northwestern zones. This activity will continue to diminish over
the next few hours with the loss of daytime heating and increasing
convective inhibition. However, we have maintained some low (less
than 20% chance) PoPs in the adjacent areas of North Texas
through the evening as the slow moving MCV associated with this
activity continues to shift across north-central Oklahoma. The
remainder of the forecast period will be seasonably hot and
generally quiet as subsidence associated with the building high
pressure suppresses the potential for additional convective
development. Following another warm night with lows in the mid
70s, temperatures will again top out in the 90s areawide Saturday
afternoon with triple digit heat indices expected across the
region. Though conditions will not reach the threshold for a Heat
Advisory, anyone spending any amount of time outdoors this weekend
should continue to take precautions against the elevated potential
for heat-related illnesses.

12

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 1251 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025/
/Saturday Night Onward/

High pressure will become re-established across the Southern
Plains as we head through the weekend, stunting rain chances
across the majority of North and Central Texas. Low chances for
sea breeze showers and storms will remain confined to southern
Central Texas, but most, if not all of the region will remain
rain-free. Low rain chances will return this upcoming week as an
upper level shortwave digs south and sends a cold front across the
Red River. This front is expected to stall in North Texas,
becoming a zone of increased convective development over the
first half of the new work week. Severe weather is not anticipated
with this activity due to the lack of meaningful deep layer
shear, though gusty winds, brief heavy rain, and lightning will
all impact outdoor activities each day through Wednesday. Heading
towards July 4th, a de-amplifying upper low will move onshore the
western CONUS, shifting a building ridge overtop the region. This
will effectively stunt rain chances once again through the end of
the week. Aside from the rain chances, it will remain hot and
humid, with high temperatures mainly in the 90s and heat index
values up to around 103 each afternoon.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

The scattered SHRA/TSRA that developed along the weak boundary NW
of D10 this afternoon will continue to move very slowly eastward
over the next several hours and may briefly impact air traffic
around the Bonham cornerpost before the storms diminish. Given
that these storms have remained nearly stationary through much of
the afternoon, the associated outflow boundary(ies)/wind shift
remain well north of the Metroplex airports this evening.
Otherwise, VFR prevails with SCT diurnal cumulus and south winds
generally between 8-12 kts. MVFR cigs are expected to develop
along the I-35 corridor in Central Texas (near KAUS/KSAT) early
Saturday morning. This deck of low clouds will likely spread
northeastward with a low (20-30%) chance for MVFR reaching KACT.
Have opted to maintain the TEMPO group for low cigs at Waco given
the persistent low-level moisture which has led to more aggressive
low cloud development over the past couple of days despite the low
probability of occurrence.

12

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    78  94  78  97  78 /   5   5   0   0   0
Waco                75  93  75  94  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               74  91  74  92  75 /  10  10   0   5   5
Denton              76  94  76  97  76 /   5   5   0   0   0
McKinney            76  93  76  96  76 /   5   5   0   0   0
Dallas              78  96  78  97  78 /   5   5   0   0   0
Terrell             75  93  75  94  75 /   0   5   0   0   0
Corsicana           76  93  75  94  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              74  94  73  95  74 /   0   0   0   5   0
Mineral Wells       75  96  75  98  76 /   5  10   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$