920
FXUS64 KFWD 021040
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
540 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and pleasant weather is forecast over the weekend into
  early next week.

- A cold front will bring scattered showers and storms to the area
  late Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. Some strong to
  severe storms are possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Tranquil and pleasant weather can be expected all weekend as high
pressure settles in following an eastward translation of the upper
trough which brought rain to the area on Friday. Low dewpoints in
the 40s and 50s will persist through Sunday with high temperatures
near or slightly below normal. A small amount of shallow
radiation fog may be observed this morning as cloud cover begins
to clear and temperatures fall into the upper 40s, although this
is expected to be a scarce enough occurrence such that none will
be included in the public forecast. Lingering mid/high cloud cover
will continue to thin this morning, with mostly clear skies in
place by the afternoon. Highs will be a few degrees warmer on
Sunday, aided by the onset of modest southerly return flow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

More robust southerly low-level flow will become established
heading into Monday, and this will result in the return of the 60F
isodrosotherm while a sharper warming trend ensues. Highs will
return to the mid/upper 80s for Monday afternoon, and they should
be a few degrees warmer on Tuesday as low-level flow veers
increasing southwesterly ahead of another low pressure system and
its attendant cold front. This front along with possibly a
dryline intrusion could culminate in scattered convection late
Tuesday into Wednesday, and this time period will be the main one
to watch through the entire forecast period for our next storm
chances.

Overall, the Tuesday evening to early Wednesday thunderstorm
setup is not the most favorable, primarily due to uncoordinated
lifting mechanisms and unfavorable diurnal timing. The system`s
primary mid/upper level forcing is largely progged to lag behind
the surface boundaries, and by the time stronger dynamic lift
arrives, a diurnal increase in MLCIN may already be occurring
Tuesday evening. This may have a tendency to limit convective
coverage to areas mainly near the west-east oriented cold front in
North Texas Tuesday night which should have a tendency to merge
into a linear convective mode rather quickly given flow/shear
vectors parallel to the boundary. Since this is still a Day 4+
forecast, much could still change, and a faster arrival of mid-
level ascent could even support isolated dryline convective
attempts on Tuesday afternoon. Any storms that do manage to
develop will have access to a parameter space supportive of
strong/severe convective hazards.

As the aforementioned cold front moves through the forecast area
on Wednesday, it will bring a noteworthy cooldown for a day or
two to follow with below normal highs currently forecast for
Thursday. A dry forecast is favored for the second half of the
workweek as we likely remain positioned between storm systems
through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 524 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

VFR will prevail with a light northwesterly wind continuing
through this afternoon. Winds will return to southeasterly after
00z this evening at speeds around 5 kts or less. A breezier
southwest wind can be expected heading into Sunday, and this has
been included in the extended DFW TAF. FEW/SCT cirrus will be the
extent of cloud cover at the terminals through the forecast
period.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  56  81  61 /   0   0   0   0
Waco                74  53  78  58 /   0   0   0   0
Paris               73  50  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
Denton              75  51  80  59 /   0   0   0   0
McKinney            75  53  80  59 /   0   0   0   0
Dallas              77  57  82  61 /   0   0   0   0
Terrell             75  52  80  58 /   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           76  54  81  60 /   0   0   0   0
Temple              75  53  79  58 /   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       75  51  80  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Stalley
LONG TERM....Stalley
AVIATION...Stalley