Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
457 FXUS64 KFWD 151048 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 548 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms (50-70% chance) are expected today across Central Texas with more isolated coverage (20-30%) across North Texas. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms (15-30% chance) remain possible Thursday and Friday afternoon and evening. - Drier and hotter conditions are expected this weekend into next week with temperatures returning into the 90s and lower-100s. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 Another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected today as an upper-level disturbance continues to remain over much of Texas. The greatest chances for rain (50-70%) will generally be along and south of the US-84 corridor where forcing for ascent and tropospheric moisture will be greatest. Shower/thunderstorm coverage will decrease with northward extent due to a greater influence of subsidence and dry air aloft intruding from the Central Great Plains. This lends substantial uncertainty to shower/thunderstorm coverage and placement (especially along and north of the I-20 corridor), so have opted to keep precip chances below 40% for North Texas. Cloud cover and rain will again keep Central Texas well below normal temperature wise today with highs in the 80s. Low-90s are the most likely high temperature across North Texas where skies will generally be more clear and convection will be more isolated. The greatest hazard today will again be isolated instances of heavy rain/flash flooding. This risk will mainly be along and south of the US-84 corridor where storm coverage this afternoon will be greatest. Storms will decrease in coverage and intensity after sunset this evening with isolated (15-30% chance) showers and storms possible generally south of I-20 and west of I-35. Overnight lows will be below average ranging from the upper-60s to the lower-70s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 ...Thursday and Friday... By the end of this work week, the broad upper-level cutoff low currently over Central Texas will gradually work westward towards the southern High Plains and southern Rockies. This will shift the strongest forcing for ascent further west, reducing rain chances across North and Central Texas as higher heights build in from the north and east. Nonetheless, small perturbation in mid- level flow in tandem with diurnal heating will result in isolated showers and thunderstorms (15-30% coverage) during the afternoon and evening hours. There is the potential for a localized area of more scattered thunderstorm development west of I-35 and south of I-20 closer to the core of the lingering upper-level system. Here, rain chances on Thursday look to be more in the 40-50% range. Severe weather is not expected, though frequent lightning and isolated instances of flood due to torrential rain will be possible in the strongest storms. Continued cloud cover and precipitation across the region will keep highs below average ranging from the mid-80s across the Hill Country to the low and mid-90s across much of North and East Texas. ...Saturday through Tuesday... More typical summer weather returns to the region this weekend and will last through the beginning of next week as ridging aloft and surface high pressure establishes itself across the southern Great Plains and the Southeast. This pattern will keep rain chances out of the forecast during this time period as subsidence and dry air aloft will inhibit any convective activity. Temperatures this weekend will be near normal with highs in the mid and upper 90s, before slightly above normal temperatures work into the region for the beginning of next week with highs in the upper-90s and lower-100s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 529 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026 Obs across North and Central Texas have shown periodic MVFR cigs, so will keep TEMPO MVFR at TAF sites through 13Z. While widely scattered rain showers (30-40% chance) are expected across North Texas (Metroplex TAF sites), thunderstorm potential/coverage this afternoon is too low to warrant inclusion in TAFs at this time. However, storms are expected to be much more widespread in Central Texas (50-70% chance) so have included mention of TSRA in KACT TAFs. Isolated showers will be possible (20-30% chance) later tonight, but the bulk of any convective activity today should be over by 01Z. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 90 74 91 75 / 30 20 30 10 Waco 85 72 88 74 / 70 30 40 20 Paris 88 71 90 73 / 40 20 20 10 Denton 91 72 91 73 / 20 20 30 10 McKinney 88 73 89 74 / 20 20 30 10 Dallas 90 74 92 76 / 30 20 30 10 Terrell 89 72 90 73 / 30 20 20 10 Corsicana 90 74 92 76 / 50 20 30 20 Temple 85 72 88 73 / 70 30 40 20 Mineral Wells 88 69 88 71 / 30 20 40 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Darrah LONG TERM....Darrah AVIATION...Darrah