Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
291 FXUS64 KFWD 160530 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1230 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025 ...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated thunderstorms (15-25% chance) are expected again across portions of North Central Texas Thursday afternoon and evening. - A tropical wave is expected to bring scattered thunderstorms across much of eastern Texas Friday and Saturday. - For many, the upcoming weekend and next week will be the hottest of the summer so far, with highs in the mid to upper 90s and feels like temperatures ranging from 100 to 109. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Wednesday Through Thursday Night/ ...Wednesday and Wednesday Night... Persistent southerly winds continue to bring rich boundary layer moisture from the Gulf. As such, there may be periods of cloudiness this morning, primarily across Central Texas before skies clear by late Wednesday morning. Short term guidance all continues to resolve a remnant 500 hPa vort max in western Texas which will slowly drift to the northeast over the course of the day. This will provide subtle, yet sufficient forcing for ascent across portions of North Central Texas for isolated thunderstorms to develop during peak heating in the afternoon and early evening hours. As with all summertime thunderstorms, there will be the risk for gusty winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Convection resolved by both CAMs and global models suggest 15-25% coverage, primarily north of I-20 and west of I-35. Any storms that are able to develop should diminish with sunset. Regardless of whether you see rain tomorrow or not, temperatures should still remain slightly below average, with highs in the low to mid-90s. Lows at night will be in the 70s. ...Thursday and Thursday Night... Weak upper-level ridging will begin to build into the southern Great Plains by Thursday, generally promoting clear, dry and hot conditions across the area. However, there will be a tropical wave in the northern Gulf moving towards the west. Weak forcing for ascent associated with this disturbance concurrent with afternoon temperatures near the convective temp will support stray to isolated (10-20% chance) showers or thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. Any storm that is able to develop should remain southeast of a line from Temple to Palestine. Thursday will be the start of a warming trend heading into the weekend for most. Highs will be near climatology across much of North and Northeast Texas, ranging from the mid to upper-90s. Slightly below average temperatures are still expected across Central Texas with highs in the low 90s. Darrah && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Friday through Tuesday/ ...Friday and Saturday... The Northern Gulf tropical wave will weaken as it moves into eastern Texas and western Louisiana heading into this upcoming weekend. Nonetheless, scattered thunderstorms are expected in association with this disturbance across East Texas each afternoon Friday and Saturday, with higher rain chances (30-40%) on Friday. Any storms that develop look to be east of the I-35 corridor at this time. Storm coverage will also be sparser (10-20%) across Northeast Texas where moisture will be slightly lower, and forcing for ascent will be weaker than locations further to the south. Clouds and potential rain from this disturbance have introduced some uncertainty with high temperatures across the region Friday and Saturday. In general, the most likely scenario will be reminiscent of Thursday, with highs in the upper 90s across North and Northeast Texas, and highs in the low 90s across Central and East-Central Texas. Should storms extend further northwest than expected, or coverage be higher than anticipated, high temperatures may be a few degrees cooler than this. ...Sunday through Tuesday... Upper-level ridging will amplify across the central CONUS by the end of this weekend and into next week. This will promote temperatures in the mid to upper 90s across the region, with triple digit heat possible in the Big Country. Dew points in the low to mid 70s will result in peak heat indices of 100 to 109 degrees, particularly across East Texas. As of now, there are no precipitation chances during this timeframe. However, medium range guidance has a signal for a weak tropical wave to linger over Texas. Depending on the thermodynamic profile of the environment next week and the exact placement and strength of this disturbance, low-end precipitation chances may need to be added for the potential of isolated afternoon convection, primarily across central Texas. Look for potential updates to this with subsequent forecast issuances throughout the rest of the week. Darrah && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /06Z TAFs/ A broken deck of low-MVFR stratus (BKN012-BKN016) is expected to develop across portions of central Texas after 11Z, and extend towards the north into D10. As of now, sky coverage in D10 should be FEW to SCT by the time clouds arrive, so have left MVFR out of the TAFs for now (except at KACT). Depending on trends in the development of these clouds overnight, may need to add in a TEMPO group for MVFR cigs at D10 TAF sites. MVFR cigs should dissipate no later than 16Z, giving way to VFR conditions and south winds at 10-15 kts for the rest of the TAF forecast period at all TAF sites. Darrah && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 76 94 76 97 76 / 10 10 0 0 0 Waco 74 93 73 93 73 / 5 0 0 0 0 Paris 74 93 73 95 74 / 5 0 0 0 0 Denton 75 95 74 97 74 / 10 20 5 0 0 McKinney 75 94 75 97 74 / 10 5 0 0 0 Dallas 76 96 76 97 76 / 10 5 0 0 0 Terrell 74 95 73 96 74 / 5 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 74 95 74 97 74 / 10 0 0 0 0 Temple 73 94 72 94 72 / 5 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 74 95 73 97 72 / 20 20 10 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$