Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
350 FXUS64 KFWD 281016 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 516 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a low chance (10-20% chance) for thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening across portions of North Texas. - Above normal temperatures are possible Friday through Monday with many seeing highs in the low 90s each day. - Isolated thunderstorms (10-30% chance) will be possible in the afternoon and evening hours the first half of next work week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 1127 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026 A warm and tranquil night is on tap for North and Central Texas tonight. Clouds will continue to linger (especially east of I-35) due to a departing upper-level disturbance as temperatures drop into the 60s and lower 70s. Due to the light winds, low dewpoint depressions and clear skies, patchy fog will be possible across portions of Central Texas, particularly south of the US-84 corridor. Thursday will be warm with highs in the upper 80s and partly cloudy for most across the region. While a stray shower or thunderstorm (10-20% chance) can`t be ruled out Thursday afternoon and evening, the vast majority of those across the region will remain dry. This is largely due to an increase in synoptic scale subsidence across North and Central Texas owing to negative vorticity advection and higher heights building in from the west. The greatest chance to see a storm or two during this time frame will be along and north of the I-20 corridor. A stray shower or thunderstorm may linger north of I-20 and east of I-35 into the early overnight hours. Friday will be the start of a warming trend as upper-level ridging builds in from the west. Temperatures will be near or slightly above average with highs in the upper-80s and lower-90s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1127 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026 The upcoming weekend will be hot and generally rain free as an upper-level ridge establishes itself over the southern Great Plains. Temperatures Saturday through Monday will warm into the low and mid-90s during the afternoon hours. While there is a weak signal for a couple isolated showers/thunderstorms to develop during peak diurnal heating, the lack of lift and the presence of a capping inversion atop the boundary layer will make rain unlikely during this period. By next work week, upper-level flow should de-amplify and be relatively weak and zonal. A few weak disturbances may traverse the region above a warm and moist boundary layer, bringing enough lift for isolated (10-30% chance) showers and storms during the afternoon and evening hours. Severe weather is not expected at this time, though there will be enough instability to support a strong thunderstorm or two capable of gusty winds and/or small hail. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 511 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026 Winds at TAF sites during this forecast period will be very light (AOB 5kts) and as a result may periodically exhibit more erratic wind directions than what is prevailed in the TAFs. This afternoon and evening (21Z to 03Z), there is also a low chance (10-20%) for a stray shower or thunderstorm at Metroplex TAF sites, but current probs are too low to include in TAFs at this time. Patchy fog may develop tonight after 06Z across portions of East Texas, but any fog that develops should remain well east of all the TAF sites. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 89 73 92 75 / 20 20 10 0 Waco 88 70 91 73 / 0 10 10 0 Paris 83 68 87 71 / 20 30 20 0 Denton 87 70 90 74 / 20 20 10 0 McKinney 87 70 91 74 / 20 20 10 0 Dallas 89 73 92 75 / 20 20 10 0 Terrell 86 70 90 72 / 20 20 10 0 Corsicana 88 70 90 72 / 10 10 10 0 Temple 88 69 90 72 / 10 10 0 0 Mineral Wells 88 69 91 72 / 10 20 10 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Darrah LONG TERM....Darrah AVIATION...Darrah