Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
396 FXUS64 KFWD 291016 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 516 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot temperatures between 97 to 104 with little to no rain are expected this weekend through next week. - The fire threat will remain elevated through next week due to hot temperatures, low humidity and worsening drought conditions. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026 Another warm late August morning across North and Central Texas today with current temperatures in the upper 70s to low 90s. Dewpoints vary widely across the forecast area ranging from mid 50s in our northwest to low 70s. This deeper low level moisture will remain present across our southeast counties today, which may allow for a few isolated diurnal showers to pop up late this afternoon as the HRRR suggests. Will show a 10% pop to account for this potential. Otherwise, it`ll be another hot and dry day today as the large upper level ridge that has dominated our weather this month shifts eastward atop OK/TX. Highs look to once again reach the 97-104 range. NBM continues to be too cool with afternoon highs and have gone above guidance a degree or two in most areas. Thankfully, low level moisture will mix out substantially this afternoon which will keep max heat index values below our 105 threshold, so no heat advisory is planned. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026 Global models indicate the expansive H5 ridge will remain centered over OK/North TX through Monday before shifting further northeastward into the mid-Mississippi Valley by the middle of next week. Despite this slight pattern shift, our neck of the woods will remain firmly under the ridge`s influence, with dry and hot conditions continuing through the week. DFW will likely end up with just a trace of rain for the month, which would make August 2026 one of only 9 Augusts with no measurable rainfall since official records began in 1898. As far as temperatures, highs look to remain fairly steady in the 97-104 range through the forecast period, with just a slight dip in temps for midweek as the ridge weakens slightly. Both DFW and Waco should easily add a slew of more days to the 100 degree day total for this summer. Heat Advisories may also become necessary for parts of the area by mid or late week as low level moisture increases and raises heat index values. Temps look to nudge upward by late week as both the GFS/ECMWF show the upper ridge building back westward and strengthening yet again, which will keep us hot and dry for Labor Day weekend. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 514 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026 VFR conditions will continue this TAF period with just a few low/mid level clouds and southerly winds around 7-9 kts. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 102 80 101 80 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 102 77 101 76 / 10 0 0 0 Paris 99 74 99 75 / 10 0 0 0 Denton 102 77 101 77 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 100 76 99 76 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 102 80 102 80 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 101 76 100 76 / 10 0 0 0 Corsicana 100 77 99 75 / 10 0 0 0 Temple 100 75 99 74 / 10 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 102 73 102 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Shamburger LONG TERM....Shamburger AVIATION...Shamburger