603
FXUS64 KFWD 140441
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1141 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and humid conditions expected today and Saturday with
  isolated afternoon thunderstorms (20-30% chance).

- Low rain chances (15-25%) continue into next week with
  temperatures warming into the mid 90s by mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Overnight through Sunday/

Convection has died out across the region late this evening with
loss of heating and activity across West Texas continues to lose
momentum as it steadily pushes southeast. We should remain warm
and humid overnight with low temperatures in the lower 70s. We`ll
continue to monitor new convective development which is expected
to occur later tonight across northwest Oklahoma as it`ll tend to
move in our general direction by morning. Otherwise we should
remain quiet overnight into early Saturday.

The upper pattern will remain supportive of at least scattered
showers and thunderstorms throughout the Southern Plains and
across Southeast Texas through the weekend, although a lack of
significant forcing or notable frontal systems will make pinning
down location a little more challenging as is common for this
time of year. A mid level ridge will be centered off to our west
keeping the Southern Plains embedded within a modest northerly
flow aloft which will support convective complexes making a run at
North Texas nightly. Additional scattered afternoon thunderstorms
are expected across Southeast Texas which will spread northwest
into the evening hours. We`ll have 20% PoPs mainly north of I-20
this morning with 20-30% PoPs across our east/southeast this
afternoon and maintain this general configuration into Sunday
as well. It is worth noting that the consensus of the global
guidance has come in considerably higher with PoPs over the
weekend, so we`ll continue to monitor this in the short term.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 210 PM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025/
/Sunday Onward/

Northwesterly flow aloft will continue Sunday as the ridge
remains confined to the Four Corners region. This should help send
a shortwave into our region Sunday night, increasing the threat
for thunderstorm complex to move in. With instability near 2500
J/Kg as storms approach our region, there will be a threat for
severe winds along the leading edge of the thunderstorm complex.
Since this potential thunderstorm complex is still 3 days out,
there remains a high degree of uncertainty the timing and
location. Expect additional information in the next day or two.

As we begin a new work week, temperatures will remain near normal
with highs in the 90s and lows in the 70s. Heat index values will
certainly be on the rise as each afternoon will feature heat
indices in the 100-105 range. Low rain chances will be in place
next week as weak shortwaves skirt our northern or southern
counties.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/6Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail for much of the night with some passing high
clouds spreading into the region. We`ll see MVFR cigs develop
later tonight and spread north into the D10 airspace early
Saturday morning. These should hang around for a few hours before
scattering out during the late morning. South winds around 10 kt
will prevail through the period.

We`ll continue to monitor at least some low storm chances through
Saturday and again Sunday. At this time we`ll keep any precip out
of the TAFs, but may have to watch some activity spreading south
into the region later this morning.

Dunn

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    75  92  75  91  76 /   5  10  10  10   5
Waco                71  91  74  90  74 /   5  20  10   0   5
Paris               70  88  72  87  74 /  10  20  20  30  10
Denton              74  92  73  92  75 /   5  10  10  20   5
McKinney            73  90  74  90  75 /   5  10  10  20  10
Dallas              76  93  76  92  78 /   5  10  10  10   5
Terrell             72  90  73  88  74 /   5  10  10  20   5
Corsicana           72  90  74  89  75 /   5  20  10  10   5
Temple              73  92  73  91  73 /   5  20  10   0   5
Mineral Wells       72  93  72  94  73 /   5  10  10  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$