Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
813 FXUS64 KFWD 292324 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 624 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - A few showers and storms remain possible across Central Texas this evening. - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will periodically impact the area through Labor Day weekend, especially on Saturday and Sunday. - While severe weather is unlikely, those with outdoor plans should stay aware for the potential of heavy rainfall, localized flooding, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. - Following slightly cooler temperatures over the weekend, highs will return to the upper 80s and 90s next week. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 227 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ /Through Saturday/ Much cooler temperatures are ongoing across parts of North and Central Texas in response to yesterday`s cold front. For North Texas, dense cloud cover has deflected much of the insolation, leading to temperatures in the 70s (20+ degF cooler than yesterday). The front continues to slowly advance southward, moving through all of Central Texas through the rest of the evening. With warmer conditions across Central Texas, additional showers and storms are expected through this evening in Central Texas. Brief heavy rainfall along with gusty winds will be the main concern. Brief heavy rainfall may lead to quick ponding, however, overall flash flooding potential will remain low. Overnight, precipitation chances will be at at a relative minimum as today`s shortwave moves off to the southeast and we await the arrival of the next system. Our next rain chances will arrive prior to sunrise tomorrow morning as another complex of showers arrives from the northwest. This complex will originate from the Texas Panhandle and migrate to the southeast. With better forcing remaining north of our region, a gradual weakening trend is expected as it moves across North and Central Texas. Nonetheless, expect showers and storms to move across the area tomorrow morning. Continued cloud cover tomorrow will yield temperatures in the 80s across the region with relatively light winds out of the northeast. The front will be draped from northwest to southeast tomorrow afternoon with all of North and Central Texas in the post-frontal airmass. Increased near-surface convergence in the afternoon will lead to another resurgence of thunderstorms just to our south, however, a few storms cannot be ruled out within our Central Texas counties. Similar to today`s weather, tomorrows`s storms will have a potential to produce gusty winds along with brief heavy rainfall. Hernandez && .LONG TERM... /Issued 227 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025/ Update: The previous long-term discussion remains valid as guidance continues to hint at additional thunderstorms impacting North and Central Texas through the weekend. For those celebrating outdoors this holiday weekend, stay weather aware as multiple rounds of storms are expected through the Monday. Hernandez Previous Discussion: /Saturday Night Onward/ Additional convection is expected to blossom along the frontal boundary from the Big Country eastward along the stationary frontal zone beginning Saturday night and continuing into Sunday morning. This will pose a risk for flooding, with some higher res guidance indicating localized rainfall totals exceeding 3 inches across some of our western zones. Scattered thunderstorms then will be possible anywhere within the CWA through the rest of the day, with placement dictated by residual outflow boundaries from preceding convection. A similar setup can be expected heading into Monday which will allow storm chances to persist through the remainder of the holiday weekend. Heavy rain and flooding will remain the primary concern, with strong/gusty outflow winds also possible with stronger cells. Despite a lack of organized severe weather potential, those with outdoor plans (especially boaters and campers) will want to remain aware of the weather for the entirety of the holiday weekend. By Tuesday or Wednesday, a stronger mid-level shortwave digging southward within increasingly meridional flow will send another front through the forecast area, perhaps accompanied by additional scattered thunderstorms. While most ensemble members favor a drier post-frontal solution through the midweek period, a smaller percentage of guidance does linger ascent behind the frontal boundary through the midweek period which could result in additional low precip chances. For now, the forecast will remain dry during this extended period in favor of the ensemble means. Despite the passage of this cold front, less cloud cover and precipitation will limit its effect on ambient temperatures, and the late summer sun will still allow highs to reach the upper 80s and 90s through the midweek period. -Stalley && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ Visible satellite imagery shows low clouds are breaking up around the Metroplex this hour, so a few hours of MVFR cigs with tempo VFR are anticipated through 03Z. MVFR cigs are anticipated to return after then, with IFR conditions and SHRA/VCTS from 09-16Z. Precipitation should end at Metroplex airports by 16Z with MVFR cigs 16-21Z and VFR conditions thereafter. For ACT, VFR conditions are expected through 06Z before MVFR cigs arrive. IFR cigs with SHRA/VCTS are also anticipated to impact ACT from 13-16Z, with a return to MVFR cigs late Saturday morning into early afternoon and VFR afterwards. For all airports, northeast winds 5-10 knots are expected through the TAF period. Shamburger && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 72 84 73 82 71 / 20 40 60 70 40 Waco 74 85 72 81 70 / 30 50 60 80 50 Paris 68 83 69 83 68 / 10 10 30 40 30 Denton 70 83 70 84 68 / 20 40 60 70 40 McKinney 70 83 71 83 69 / 20 30 50 60 30 Dallas 73 85 73 83 72 / 20 40 50 70 40 Terrell 71 85 71 82 70 / 20 30 40 70 30 Corsicana 74 88 74 83 71 / 30 40 50 70 40 Temple 74 88 71 83 69 / 30 40 50 80 60 Mineral Wells 71 84 70 82 68 / 20 60 70 90 40 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$