Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
567 FXUS64 KFWD 311046 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 546 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Advisories remain in effect for parts of North and Central Texas through 8 PM Friday. Heat index values between 105-110 can be expected again tomorrow. - There is a low chance for showers/storms late Friday evening into Saturday as a weak cold front moves through North and Central Texas. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday afternoon) Issued at 155 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 A broad mid and upper-level ridge centered from eastern New Mexico into West Texas will remain the dominant feature today, with North and Central Texas along its eastern flank. A shortwave diving southeast through the Plains will temporarily suppress the ridge toward the Four Corners, placing North Texas beneath northwest flow by this evening. This will not represent a full breakdown of the ridge, but should weaken its influence enough to allow a weak cold front to approach the Red River later today. Ahead of the front, surface winds will veer to the southwest, promoting downslope warming, deeper boundary-layer mixing, and compressional warming. Highs will range from the upper 90s to around 104 degrees, with heat index values between 105 and 110 degrees across much of North Texas and eastern Central Texas. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 8 PM for much of the region. The cold front is expected to reach the Red River counties late this evening before progressing south through the remainder of North Texas overnight. The boundary should move south of the I-20 corridor Saturday morning, continue through Central Texas during the afternoon, and exit the forecast area Saturday evening. As is typical for this time of year, the initial northerly wind shift will likely arrive before the more noticeable drop in temperatures and humidity. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may develop near the Red River this evening, but with the strongest upper-level forcing lifting away toward the Midwest, storm coverage should remain limited as the front advances south. Isolated storms may redevelop across Central Texas Saturday afternoon where frontal convergence overlaps the remaining warm and unstable air mass. Storm coverage is expected to remain fairly isolated, but any storm that develops will be capable of producing strong, localized downburst winds as heavy precipitation descends through the hot, deeply mixed lower atmosphere. Frequent lightning and sudden wind shifts will also pose a hazard for those with outdoor plans, especially on area lakes. Storm chances will diminish from north to south late Saturday as the front exits and drier air begins filtering into the region. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 155 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 Drier air will continue spreading south Saturday night as surface high pressure settles across the Plains. North to northeast winds, clearing skies, and lower dewpoints will provide a brief break from the recent heat and humidity, with Sunday afternoon temperatures generally in the 90s. The lower humidity may be more noticeable than the actual temperature change, while favorable radiational cooling should result in a less warm start Sunday morning. The surface high will shift east on Monday, allowing winds to return to the east-southeast while upper ridging and the associated thermal ridge expand back across the Southern Plains. Low-level moisture will initially return beneath strengthening mid-level warming, favoring increasingly humid and rain-free conditions. Temperatures will climb into the upper 90s to around 100 degrees during the first half of the week, with triple-digit heat indices becoming increasingly common Tuesday onward. Additional heat headlines may eventually be needed as the combination of hot temperatures and returning humidity becomes re- established across North and Central Texas. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 543 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Southerly winds around 10-12 kt will continue through much of the day before a weak cold front enters North Texas later this evening. A brief westerly wind shift is expected immediately ahead of the boundary, followed by a transition to northerly winds later in the TAF period. The front/wind shift will not reach Waco until after 12Z Saturday. While isolated convection may accompany the front tonight, the combination of limited (isolated) coverage and the anticipated weakening trend with southward extent supports maintaining a dry TAF forecast for now. Later forecasts will continue to monitor convective trends as the front moves into North Texas. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 104 82 98 76 / 0 10 0 0 Waco 101 79 99 74 / 0 20 20 0 Paris 101 77 93 70 / 0 20 0 0 Denton 104 79 98 73 / 0 10 10 0 McKinney 103 79 96 73 / 0 10 0 0 Dallas 104 83 99 77 / 0 10 0 0 Terrell 102 79 98 73 / 0 10 0 0 Corsicana 102 79 99 72 / 0 20 10 0 Temple 100 77 99 74 / 0 20 20 10 Mineral Wells 104 76 98 70 / 0 10 10 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107- 116>123-131>135-146>148-162. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...12