Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
684 FXUS64 KFWD 171754 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1254 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 ...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry weather will continue today across most of North and Central Texas. - A cold front will bring scattered storms (30-70%) on Saturday. A few strong to marginally severe storms are possible, mainly along and east of I-35. - Cooler weather is expected on Sunday, followed by a warm up on Monday. A couple weak cold fronts will move through the area throughout the week, with mild temperatures expected. - Low rain chances are set to return late next week. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Saturday Night/ Another warm and mostly rain-free day is expected across the region today. High temperatures will peak in the mid 80s to low 90s. Gulf moisture will surge northward today, especially into Central Texas. This may be able to squeeze out an isolated shower across Central/Southeast Texas where we`ll advertise 10-15% PoPs through the afternoon. On Saturday, a shortwave trough at upper levels will dig into West Texas during the morning hours, with a pre-frontal trough expected to set up just west of the CWA. Low-level winds will strengthen during the early morning hours in response to the approaching shortwave, which will continue to advect rich Gulf moisture all the way into North Texas ahead of the approaching system. Warm advection showers may develop in portions of North Texas (especially western North Texas) during the morning hours, with showers and thunderstorms expected to develop west of I-35 by mid to late morning as both the surface trough and shortwave reach our western border. This activity will move east through the remainder of the day, with the best coverage across North and East Texas (50-70% chance) and scattered coverage across Central Texas (30-40% chance). We will likely see a more linear structure to storms rooted along the pre-frontal trough, with more discrete showers and storms developing ahead (east) of the trough/line of storms within an area of strong warm advection. As far as the severe weather threat goes, isolated to scattered strong to severe storms will be possible along/east of the I-35 corridor, coinciding with an axis of 1500-2500 J/kg of MUCAPE and around 50-60 knots of deep layer shear. The greatest potential for severe storms is still expected to be along/east of I-45/US-75 during the afternoon, but there is one caveat. While models are mostly in agreement on storm timing, a couple of the CAMs are slightly slower with the shortwave/surface trough. These slower solutions would result in a slight delay in convective development, which could allow the instability axis to stretch further west than currently anticipated. If this occurs, the main severe weather threat area would shift slightly further west. Damaging wind gusts and hail will be the primary hazards with any of this activity. The tornado threat will be low and confined to far northeastern portions of the forecast area. Showers and thunderstorms will exit from west to east Saturday evening, with the arrival of a cold front bringing an end to any lingering showers or storms overnight. Cooler air will be ushered in behind the front, with lows falling into the upper 40s to mid 50s across North Texas and mid 50s to low 60s in Central Texas. Breezy north winds will also develop behind the front, with wind speeds between 10-15 mph and gusts around 20-25 mph. Barnes && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Sunday Onward/ Cooler, fall-like weather is expected on Sunday in the wake of the cold front, with high temperatures mostly in the 70s. Despite the cooler temperatures, low humidity and breezy winds may result in a slightly elevated fire threat west of I-35 Sunday afternoon, mainly for any areas that don`t receive rain on Saturday. A cool night is expected Sunday night, with overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s areawide. Southerly winds will return Sunday night, with breezy southwest winds expected to develop on Monday as another cold front approaches from the north. Wind speeds are expected to be between 10-20 mph, with gusts around 25 to 30 mph. We`ll see some slight downsloping effects in western North and Central Texas, thanks to the subtle westerly wind component. This will result in hot temperatures in the low to mid 90s across western North and Central Texas, with highs in the mid to upper 80s expected across the rest of the area. Breezy winds, hot temperatures, and low afternoon humidity (20-35%) will result in an elevated fire threat west of I-35 Monday afternoon, especially for any areas that miss out on rain this weekend. The cold front is slated to arrive in North and Central Texas Monday night into Tuesday. No rain chances will accompany the front, as moisture will remain scoured from the region behind the weekend cold front. Pleasant post-frontal temperatures are expected on Tuesday, with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. A subtle warming trend is expected Wednesday and Thursday, but temperatures will remain relatively mild. We`ll likely see another cold front late in the week, which may be accompanied by a few showers or storms. Barnes && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ Main concerns...Thunderstorm potential increasing for Saturday, MVFR ceilings Saturday morning. Cold front passage expected Saturday evening/overnight. VFR will prevail the remainder of the day, with southerly winds around 8-12 knots and a few gusts to around 20 knots. Breezy southerly winds around 10-15 knots will develop early Saturday morning along with MVFR ceilings. Showers and thunderstorms will develop west of the DFW Metroplex by mid to late morning and will move east throughout the day. The main window for storms at the terminals will be 18-22Z, but this may need some slight adjusting as models continue to hone in on thunderstorm timing. Isolated instanced of hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible with any stronger storms. Additionally, veering winds will result in south or even westerly winds around 12-17 knots from mid morning through afternoon. Wind speeds should decrease to around 10 knots out of the southwest as the storms exit to the east during the afternoon. Looking ahead, the cold front is slated to arrive just outside of the extended period - around 03-06Z for D10 and 05-08Z at KACT, though there are still some slight timing discrepancies. North winds between 10-15 knots are expected behind the front. Barnes && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not likely through tomorrow, but any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 88 71 88 58 77 / 0 10 40 20 0 Waco 88 70 91 61 80 / 5 5 30 20 0 Paris 87 69 85 54 73 / 20 10 60 30 0 Denton 87 68 87 53 75 / 0 20 50 20 0 McKinney 87 69 87 55 75 / 0 10 50 20 0 Dallas 89 71 89 59 77 / 0 10 40 20 0 Terrell 88 68 87 56 77 / 5 5 40 30 0 Corsicana 90 71 89 60 79 / 5 5 40 30 0 Temple 89 68 91 59 81 / 5 5 20 20 0 Mineral Wells 90 66 90 53 78 / 5 20 40 10 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$