Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
112 FXUS64 KFWD 131042 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 542 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will affect much of the area today through Wednesday with primarily a threat for flash flooding. A few strong storms may also produce gusty downburst winds and small hail. - Rain chances will gradually diminish through the midweek period, before seasonably hot and dry weather resumes by the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 540 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 Showers and thunderstorms have affected portions of North Texas overnight with very localized rainfall totals of as much as 3-5 inches. While some of this activity may decline after sunrise, renewed widespread convective development will resume through much of the daytime, with activity gradually shifting from north to south into Central Texas by late afternoon and evening. Isolated flash flooding will continue to be the main concern with an environment supportive of very efficient rainfall on the order of 2-3" per hour. PoPs were refined to capture these trends with this morning`s update, and high temperatures were also lowered slightly with cloud cover expected to be prevalent over much of the area. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will persist through the entire short term forecast period in the presence of broad mid-level troughing and rich Gulf moisture. This diffuse pattern and weak dynamic ascent will allow convection to redevelop and be maintained outside of peak heating hours, although coverage should still tend to be maximized during the daytime both today and Tuesday. With anomalously high moisture content in place characterized by PW values over 2", all cells will be capable of very heavy rainfall with observed rates on the order of 3" per hour. Isolated flash flooding will continue to be the primary forecast concern through the next 48 hours, with a much lower potential for strong/severe convective wind/hail hazards. Due to the very isolated nature of the flooding potential along with a tremendous amount of spatial uncertainty regarding the highest rainfall totals, no Flood Watch product is currently planned with this forecast issuance. The weakly forced nature of convection will continue to result in below normal forecast confidence and precision since new development will progressively hinge on small-scale features like outflows and MCVs. However, the overall trend through the next 36 hours should be for convection to primarily affect North Texas through this morning before gradually shifting southward mainly into Central Texas this afternoon. Following a relative minimum in thunderstorm activity overnight, a reblossoming of widespread convection is expected across much of Central Texas on Tuesday, while areas near and north of the I-20 corridor see more isolated coverage of only 20-30%. For many areas, this episode of showers and thunderstorms will be a benefit, both in terms of rare mid-summer rainfall along with a reprieve from the heat. Ample cloud cover along with the presence of rain-cooled air during peak heating will keep high temperatures below normal both today and Tuesday, and areas affected by convection through a majority of the daytime may only see highs reach the mid 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026 While the greatest lift from the upper low/easterly wave will gradually shift southwest of the forecast area heading into the midweek period, the weakness aloft will allow for scattered shower and thunderstorm activity across much of the forecast area through Wednesday. However, this activity will probably tend to be more diurnally driven in comparison to the preceding couple of days in the absence of stronger ascent to sustain convection overnight. Rain chances could linger into Thursday, with recent guidance suggesting a slower southeastward expansion of the ridge axis in comparison to previous model runs, although coverage should steadily decrease heading into the second half of the workweek. Seasonably hot and dry weather should resume by the upcoming weekend as mid-level heights steadily build and subsidence regains control. This will send high temperatures back to near or above normal with readings in the upper 90s to around 100 through the extended forecast period. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 540 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026 Showers and thunderstorms remain in progress near the D10 airports as of 11z, and will result in TSRA impacts for at least the next couple of hours. While there may be a brief lull in activity through the late morning, renewed thunderstorm development is possible from midday into the early afternoon within D10, and will continue to advertise this general trend in the TAFs. Category reductions due to a combination of cig/vis degradations can be expected within bouts of heavier precipitation. Most activity will shift southward into Central Texas by mid/late afternoon which is when Waco will experience its greatest TSRA chances. The evening and overnight period should be more tranquil for all TAF sites with lull in convective activity, but MVFR cigs and perhaps some fog may fill in during this time period and persist into Tuesday morning. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 90 73 91 73 / 60 10 30 20 Waco 88 74 87 71 / 60 20 70 40 Paris 88 71 90 70 / 40 10 20 10 Denton 90 72 91 70 / 50 10 20 10 McKinney 88 72 92 71 / 50 10 20 10 Dallas 90 74 91 73 / 60 10 30 20 Terrell 88 72 90 70 / 60 10 30 20 Corsicana 89 72 89 72 / 60 10 50 30 Temple 89 72 84 71 / 60 30 80 40 Mineral Wells 89 72 89 68 / 40 10 30 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Stalley LONG TERM....Stalley AVIATION...Stalley