Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
649 FXUS64 KFWD 300019 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 719 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers (40-60% coverage) will continue through Friday generally along and west of the I-35 corridor. - Scattered showers (40-60% coverage) are expected across all of North and Central Texas Friday Night through Saturday afternoon. - Confidence is increasing in another storm system bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday) Issued at 1134 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Weather conditions today will be characterized by increasing cloud cover with scattered rain showers (40-60% coverage) along and west of the I-35 corridor. The primary forcing mechanisms driving the increasing rain chances are divergence aloft from a departing upper-level jet, and forcing for ascent owing to PVA with the approach of a mid-level vort max associated with Tropical Storm Vance (just off the Pacific coast of Mexico). As this mid-level disturbance traverses the Mexican Plateau and ejects northeast into West Texas tonight into Friday, scattered showers should increase in coverage particularly west of US-281 where the greatest moisture and lift will reside. East of the I-35 corridor, mid-level dry air increases with eastward extent. This along with weaker forcing will likely result in widespread mid to high- level clouds with rain struggling to make it to the surface. However, a few isolated (15-30% chance) rain showers can`t be ruled out in this area today. Friday, widespread cloud cover and scattered showers are expected all day as the aforementioned mid-level disturbance slowly traverses the state from southwest to northeast. Rain chances will be greatest west of US-281 (70-80%) and decrease with eastward extent (10-20% east of I-35). Thunderstorms are not expected today or Friday as instability will be severely lacking. The greatest chance to hear a rumble or two of thunder (~5%) will be west of I-35 and north of I-20 Thursday evening/night. Today, near normal temperatures (highs in the low-70s) are most likely west of I-35 and south of I-20 where cloud cover will be thickest and rain will be most widespread. Mid/upper level cloud cover should be thin enough across the rest of the region to allow afternoon temperatures to warm into the upper-70s and lower-80s this afternoon. Thicker cloud cover region-wide and more widespread rain across much of Central Texas will likely result in cooler temperatures Friday than today. Most will be near to slightly below normal with highs ranging from the upper-60s west of US-281 to the upper-70s east of I-35. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 202 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026 ...Friday night through Sunday... Beginning Friday night, 50-70% rain chances will become more widespread as the West Texas mid-level disturbance moves towards the northeast. While there may be a rumble of thunder or two with any embedded storms west of I-35, the majority of North and Central Texas will just see beneficial rainfall. Saturday, a subtropical jet will begin to nudge into the area from the southwest as troughing amplifies over the West Coast. Resultant upper-level convergence coinciding with height rises across the southern Plains will induce subsidence across the region. This will decrease rain chances area wide and break up a stout overcast cloud deck from west to east throughout the day. Halloween (Saturday) night, it`ll be mild and humid with temperatures in the mid to upper-70s and dewpoints in the mid-60s. Sunday will see a lull in the unsettled pattern as upper-level ridging amplifies over the Great Plains. The amplification of this ridge will be driven by strong warm air and moisture advection from the south in tandem with strong upper-level convergence in the lee of a potent jet streak extending from the Baja into the Central Rockies. Sunday morning, the general weather regime will favor patchy fog across some portion of North and Central Texas. This will primarily be driven by a center of surface high pressure moving into the region from the west under a stout inversion atop the nocturnal boundary layer. While there is some uncertainty with the exact location of this high pressure center, wherever it is, winds should be light enough to allow sufficient radiative cooling for patchy morning fog to develop. Any morning fog that can develop will quickly dissipate after sunrise due to diurnally driven mixing of the boundary layer. Partly cloudy skies and dry conditions Sunday afternoon will help temperatures to return to above fall normals for NTX/CTX with highs in the 80s. ...Monday through Wednesday... An unsettled pattern will quickly return to the region Monday onward with the arrival of the West Coast trough. Mid-range guidance is consistent in amplifying a longwave trough as it ejects from the Rockies into the Great Plains on Monday. Forcing for ascent just ahead of this trough will induce strong surface cyclogenesis in the Central High Plains. As the deepening surface low tracks east across Nebraska/Kansas Monday into Tuesday, a surface cold front will move through the region from northwest to southeast. There remains substantial uncertainty regarding the timing of the cold front. More progressive solutions (such as the GFS) bring this cold front through Monday evening/night. Slower solutions (such as the ECMWF) bring this front through the region Tuesday afternoon/evening. Substantial model disagreement in this time frame will likely continue until this weekend when the trough currently over the Pacific moves onto the West Coast. Ahead of the incoming cold front, above normal temperatures in the 80s and ample low-level moisture will result in modest destabilization during the day. The general consensus amongst medium range guidance is for a corridor of 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE to develop in the warm sector. Strong low-level convergence in the vicinity of the cold front should allow scattered thunderstorms to develop from the central Plains down into Central Texas. Furthermore, strong deep layer shear of 40-50 knots across the region will be supportive of organized convection as this cold front sweeps across North and Central Texas. The intensity of this convection remains uncertain. On one hand, this instability-shear regime generally favors isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. On the other hand there are a few components of this set up that will preclude a more substantial severe threat. First, surface based instability will be on the limited side with current guidance largely remaining under 1000 J/kg. Furthermore, mid-level flow will largely remain parallel to the orientation of the cold front which will also mitigate the damaging wind potential. As such, the most likely scenario at this time will be for a line of generally non-severe convection with embedded isolated strong/severe storms to sweep across the area in tandem with the cold front whenever it arrives. Much cooler temperatures will arrive behind the front for mid-week along with blustery north/northwesterly winds. Highs behind the front will range from the upper-60s to the mid-70s with overnight lows in the 40s and low-50s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 701 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026 Widespread VFR cigs and periods of light rain or sprinkles will continue through much of the forecast period. While the radar will remain fairly active at times, rainfall should generally be light, with VCSH maintained to account for the occasional showers. Rain coverage is expected to gradually increase overnight into Friday as an upper-level disturbance approaches from the west, though the more persistent activity will likely remain well west and south of the D10 terminals. Cigs will generally remain between 050-090 with no significant visibility reductions expected. Southerly winds this evening will become light northerly around 05Z before returning to the southeast after 15Z Friday. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 65 75 61 74 / 30 20 50 50 Waco 62 75 60 76 / 20 30 60 40 Paris 64 78 60 72 / 10 10 30 70 Denton 60 74 56 73 / 50 30 50 50 McKinney 63 75 58 73 / 30 10 40 50 Dallas 66 76 62 75 / 30 20 50 50 Terrell 63 77 59 74 / 20 10 50 60 Corsicana 64 75 61 74 / 10 10 60 60 Temple 62 75 61 78 / 20 50 60 30 Mineral Wells 60 72 57 73 / 60 70 60 40 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Darrah LONG TERM....Darrah AVIATION...12