Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
106 FXUS64 KFWD 021740 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1240 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 ...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and storms will continue today, mainly across eastern portions of North and Central Texas. - One or more thunderstorm complexes could affect portions of the area tonight into Sunday morning and again Sunday night into Monday morning, before seasonably hot and dry weather resumes next week. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Sunday Afternoon/ A nearly stalled frontal boundary is currently settled over our Brazos Valley counties with north-northeast surface winds placed over most of our forecast area as of noon today. This front will gradually push south through the day providing a focus for shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon. An ongoing complex of storms is currently pushing towards the Houston Metroplex. Most of this heavier activity will remain southeast of our forecast area but could impact our southeastern counties for a couple hours before shifting toward the Texas Gulf Coast during the evening hours. However, much of the region along and east of the I-35 corridor will remain under the influence of an anomalously moist airmass and weaker heights aloft. So, daytime heating will lead to continued isolated shower and thunderstorm development across parts of eastern North and Central Texas this afternoon and evening. Brief heavy downpours and occasional lightning will be the primary hazards. A loss of daytime heating and a push of drier mid-level air will effectively diminish rain chances around sunset this evening. Later tonight a compact shortwave in the northwesterly flow aloft will likely promote a cluster of thunderstorms over parts of the OK and TX Panhandles. This thunderstorm complex will shift south- southeast through the overnight and into Sunday morning reaching our western counties by mid-morning Sunday. There is a bit of uncertainty with how far south this complex will maintain through the morning and into the early afternoon, but the greatest rain chances will reside west of the I-35 corridor. Any lingering boundaries may promote additional isolated to scattered convection late in the afternoon and evening across parts of North and Central Texas, primarily along and west of I-35. Most locations through Sunday evening will observe generally 0-0.5" of rain, but a lucky few west of I-35 may pick up a quick 1-1.5 inches of rain depending on the ultimate track of the morning storm complex. Langfeld && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Sunday Night and Beyond/ The upper-level weather pattern will remain active into Sunday night and Monday with another shortwave dropping across the Southern Plains and over North Texas. There are many different modes in which convection during this time frame will develop, but confidence is highest that another overnight complex of thunderstorms will emerge out of the Texas Panhandle region and shift south-southeast into portions of western North and Central Texas early Monday morning. A stronger belt of northwesterlies may promote an increased threat for isolated strong to severe wind gusts along the leading edge of this complex. However, where this complex tracks is ultimately dependent on where it originates, and we will get a better idea of this scenario in the next 24 hours. Any lingering outflow boundaries will support thunderstorm development across Central Texas into Monday afternoon, but precipitation chances will largely come to an end by Monday evening as a drier airmass ushers in from the north. The upper-level ridge over the Southwest CONUS will gradually expand eastward through the work week keeping dry conditions over North and Central Texas generally Tuesday and beyond. Temperatures will also crank back up as we get deeper into next week with widespread afternoon highs in the mid 90s to low 100s by Wednesday. Langfeld && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ MVFR cigs at 2-3kft have remained settled over the Metroplex terminals for the last 1-2 hours and will likely persist for another hour or so before VFR conditions prevail through the remainder of the afternoon and into tonight. Light northeasterly surface winds below 10 kts will gradually shift more easterly after sunset this evening. The greatest rain chances this afternoon will remain well east and southeast of the D10 sites and KACT this afternoon, but very spotty SHRA remains possible through 23Z-00Z (~10% chance). A storm complex is set to emerge out of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles late tonight, shifting south-southeast toward the Bowie cornerpost by mid-morning Sunday. The bulk of this activity will remain west of D10, but we will need to monitor for a potential, brief shift back to more northerly winds with the arrival of an outflow boundary after 16Z Sunday. Greater SHRA and TS chances will arrive beyond this TAF period Sunday night into Monday. Langfeld && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 90 75 92 73 90 / 10 0 10 40 30 Waco 93 74 93 74 89 / 20 5 10 30 40 Paris 86 68 87 68 86 / 30 0 5 20 20 Denton 90 71 93 71 91 / 10 0 20 40 30 McKinney 88 71 91 71 90 / 20 5 10 30 30 Dallas 90 74 92 73 89 / 20 0 10 30 40 Terrell 90 72 92 71 90 / 30 5 5 20 40 Corsicana 92 75 95 74 92 / 30 5 5 20 40 Temple 95 74 95 74 92 / 20 10 10 20 40 Mineral Wells 95 72 95 71 92 / 5 0 30 40 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$