Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
684 FXUS64 KFWD 220647 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 147 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Low thunderstorm chances continue this afternoon mainly across Central Texas with gusty downburst winds possible. - Above normal temperatures and less humid conditions will prevail through the remainder of the workweek. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1253 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026 A weak surface front/trough remains draped through parts of North Texas this morning, but will begin pivoting southwestward later today. Despite most of the area being positioned within northeasterly flow behind this boundary, temperatures will remain several degrees above normal for our first official day of fall with highs in the mid and upper 90s. Dewpoints will mix into the mid 60s by late afternoon, and this will keep heat index values in the 97-102 degree range. While some convection is possible near the low-level confluent axis of the surface trough this afternoon, coverage of thunderstorms should be mitigated by a return to mid-level ridging and attendant subsidence aloft. We`ll carry low PoPs mainly from Central Texas northwestward into the Big Country with overall coverage unlikely to exceed about 20%. Given the large surface T/Td spreads and deeply inverted-V soundings, strong downburst wind gusts would once again be the primary hazard with any thunderstorm activity through the peak heating hours. Overnight lows will also be ~10 degrees above normal with readings in the low/mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1253 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026 The remainder of the workweek will feature hot and mostly rain- free weather as a secondary push of dry air arrives within northeasterly low-level flow while the near-surface moisture axis pivots into West Texas. The one exception may be across western North Texas where isolated convection could attempt to creep into our westernmost counties on Wednesday afternoon, but the majority of the CWA will remain dry. Steadily building heights overhead will maintain above normal temperatures for the following few days, but humidity will be low with dewpoints likely to mix into the 50s through the end of the week. This will offer some minor relief from the persistent unseasonable heat, but unfortunately may also lead to a resurgence of elevated fire weather conditions through the late week period despite modest wind speeds. Some rain chances may resume from Sunday into next week as extended guidance begins to favor a more active weather pattern across much of the CONUS. A lead Central Plains shortwave may result in some low thunderstorm chances late in the weekend, with perhaps a more significant breakdown of the ridge allowing for a frontal intrusion during the first half of next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1253 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the period with light northeast winds. There is a chance for isolated convection this afternoon mainly across Central Texas, but the expected coverage is too low to advertise in the Waco TAF at this time. All TSRA activity is expected to remain south of the D10 TAF sites today. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 95 75 95 74 / 10 10 10 0 Waco 96 74 97 74 / 10 10 10 0 Paris 94 71 93 67 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 94 70 95 70 / 10 10 10 0 McKinney 95 70 94 69 / 10 10 0 0 Dallas 96 76 96 74 / 10 10 10 0 Terrell 97 73 95 71 / 10 10 10 0 Corsicana 97 74 96 72 / 10 10 0 0 Temple 96 73 98 73 / 20 10 0 0 Mineral Wells 93 69 95 70 / 20 10 10 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Stalley LONG TERM....Stalley AVIATION...Stalley