Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
370 FXUS64 KFWD 052302 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 602 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal through the first half of next week. - Chances for any rain in our east and southeast remain around 10% or less this weekend into next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 Expect a relatively quiet rest of the week across North and Central Texas. Through Friday, expect afternoon highs to peak in the mid 90s to around 102 amidst mostly sunny skies and southerly winds. Afternoon heat indices will be hot, but somewhat manageable as we mix out quite a bit, mainly staying between the mid 90s to around 104 today and tomorrow. A few spots may reach or just exceed the 105 degree mark today or tomorrow, but will be sporadic and confined enough to forego any issuance of a Heat Advisory. Nonetheless, make sure to stay cool and hydrated. The upper level ridge will remain the dominant player in our weather pattern over the next couple of days, though it will gradually shift back to the west heading into the weekend. With the ridge slowly receding and an emerging weakness to our east, we cannot rule out a very isolated diurnally-driven shower or storm approaching our east and southeast counties in the afternoons. This probability remains quite low, around 10% or less at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 Going into the weekend, North and Central Texas will remain on the eastern periphery of the upper level ridge within a subtle weakness aloft. A cold front is expected to stall well to our north near the Oklahoma/Kansas border by Friday, and much of any MCSs that develop look to remain to our northeast going into the weekend. Still can`t rule out very isolated diurnally-driven development just to our east and southeast in the afternoons heading into next week, but anything would likely be outside of our area. The weakness in the ridge aloft will aid in keeping afternoon temperatures each day in the mid 90s to around 100 degrees, which is near to just slightly above normal for this time in early August. Afternoon heat indices will peak in the mid 90s to around 104-105, and some areas may observe >105 degree heat indices, which may initiate new Heat Advisories going into next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 600 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026 South winds of 10-15 kt will remain common at all airports as North and Central Texas remain positioned between a Bermuda high and a surface front in the Plains. At the upper levels, a persistent strong ridge has been briefly compromised on its northeast flank by a passing upper trough, which has allowed for isolated convection over East Texas. Precipitation is unlikely at any of the area airports, though some high based cumulus will linger for a few hours into the evening. VFR and overall quiet aviation weather is otherwise expected through Thursday. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 100 80 99 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 77 98 77 97 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 77 97 77 96 / 10 10 0 0 Denton 79 100 78 100 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 78 99 77 97 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 81 101 81 100 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 77 99 76 98 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 77 99 76 98 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 75 98 75 97 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 75 100 75 99 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Prater LONG TERM....Prater AVIATION...30