635
FXUS64 KFWD 031743
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1243 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will bring scattered showers and storms to the area
  late Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. A few strong to severe
  storms are possible near and east of Interstate 35.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday Night)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Surface high pressure will be moving out of the Southern Plains
this afternoon in response to a deepening area of low pressure
across the Central Plains. With the deepening low, we`ll see our
winds respond by becoming southerly late this afternoon, allowing
for temperatures to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s. The rest of
today will remain precipitation free with just a few high clouds
streaming across the sky. The tranquil weather will persist into
the overnight period with Monday morning temperatures in the mid
to upper 50s across much of the region.

The warming trend will continue tomorrow with all of North and
Central Texas expected to be in the 80s. A slightly more active
mid-level weather pattern will be in place as shortwaves begin to
move overhead. Along the surface, pressure falls along the Front
Range will lead to a sharpening dryline just to our west,
generally from Wichita Falls to Abilene. Some guidance is now
showing a storm or two developing along the dryline along a thin
line of 1000-1500 J/kg CAPE and moving east along the Red River.
Given strong capping in place, overall thunderstorm initiation
chances are below 15% across our northern counties.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

A cold front will be approaching our region Tuesday morning with
a remnant dryline lingering across our western counties. As the
front advances southward, instability will increase through the
afternoon with CAPE values generally between 1000-1500 J/kg. Most
of the forcing for ascent will be attributed to the front as weak
riding aloft is expected to be in place. During peak heating
hours, most of the forcing will still be across the Texas
Panhandle -- too far removed for appreciable effects over our
region. Nonetheless, given the presence of a forcing mechanism
(cold front), the potential for a strong to severe thunderstorm
cannot be ruled out.

Through the evening and overnight hours, the approaching
shortwave will begin to interact with the southward surging front,
keeping the potential for showers and thunderstorms going. Any
individual storm cells, or even clusters, are likely to organize
into a line of storms along the leading edge of the front.
Guidance continues to slow the southward progression of the front
on Wednesday, which could lead to additional thunderstorm
development as another shortwave moves overhead. Depending on
where the front is located, we may have a few strong to severe
storms along our Central Texas counties. Overall, the severe
weather threat is low given most of the instability will reside
just south of our region.

The front will finally move through the entire region late
Wednesday, ushering in cooler weather for the middle of the week.
Highs on Thursday will be in the 70s with a northerly breeze in
place.

The cooler weather will be short-lived as southerly winds return
by the weekend with more opportunities for precipitation. Of
special interest will be the evolution of an area of low pressure,
currently located off the California coast, as it progresses
east. Several guidance members show a slow eastward progression,
arriving this weekend and increasing the potential for heavy rain.
We`ll continue to monitor trends as we progress through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1156 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

No major weather concerns are expected at any of the North or
Central Texas TAF sites given VFR and southerly winds will
persist. Aside from the passing cirrus later this afternoon, any
cloud cover that develops this evening and overnight will remain
across the Texas Hill Country. Impacts to KACT are not expected.
Wind speeds today and tonight will remain between 10-13 kts,
however, they will increase tomorrow afternoon closer to 20 kts
with a few gusts to 30 kts.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    61  84  70  91 /   0   0   0   0
Waco                58  83  68  88 /   0   0   0   0
Paris               57  79  67  85 /   0   0   0  10
Denton              59  83  68  91 /   0   0   0   0
McKinney            60  83  68  89 /   0   0   0  10
Dallas              61  85  70  92 /   0   0   0  10
Terrell             57  82  68  88 /   0   0   0  10
Corsicana           60  84  70  90 /   0   0   0  10
Temple              57  84  68  88 /   0   0   0  10
Mineral Wells       57  86  68  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hernandez
LONG TERM....Hernandez
AVIATION...Hernandez