058
FXUS64 KFWD 171732
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1232 PM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably hot and humid conditions are forecast through the
  rest of the workweek.

- There is a low chance (20-30%) of thunderstorms late Wednesday
  evening and Wednesday night mainly north of I-20. A few of
  these storms could become severe.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today through Wednesday Afternoon/

A tranquil day is in store for North and Central Texas.
Prevailing mid-level ridging, partly sunny skies, and southerly
winds will promote another warm day with highs in the 90s.
Continued moist dew points will force afternoon heat indices up
between the mid 90s to around 103. While the afternoon
temperatures are generally near normal, the increased heat
indices will make spending excess time outside feel quite
stifling. Make sure to stay hydrated and keep cool! Well to our
north, a cold front is draped across the TX/OK Panhandles into
western New Mexico, and will gradually move south as its upper
level support approaches the Continental Divide.

The mid-level shortwave trough will continue to trek eastward
across the Central Plains as we head into midweek. This
disturbance will send the attached cold front south towards
western North Texas overnight through much of the day Wednesday.
As this front approaches the region, the frontal lift will work
in tandem with the moist and unstable airmass to allow for an
increased chance for showers and storms near and along the frontal
boundary. Isolated to scattered storms will be mainly confined to
near the Red River over Wednesday afternoon, with most activity
remaining across Oklahoma. Enough instability and shear will be
present to account for a low severe threat of hail and winds with
any storm that is able to get going. Otherwise, expect a warm and
humid afternoon with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s and heat
indices reaching between 94-103 degrees.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 201 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/
/Wednesday Night through Monday/

A low amplitude trough swinging through the Southern Plains will
drag a cold front southward into the region by Wednesday evening.
A moderately unstable airmass and moisture pooled along the
approaching frontal boundary beneath weak mid level ascent should
be sufficient for scattered thunderstorms to continue into North
Texas late Wednesday evening and night. This activity will likely
be confined to areas north of I-20 where better forcing will be
present. Coverage of storms is expected to only be about 20-30%,
but any storms that can continue into the late evening hours would
have at least some low severe potential. This activity will
diminish late overnight as the strongest forcing pulls off to the
east and the frontal boundary loses southward momentum. Mid level
ridging will then build back in across the Southern Plains through
the end of the week into the weekend. This will allow
temperatures to climb back into the mid/upper 90s across much of
North Texas. Ridging will then shift eastward into the Midwest by
early next week resulting in increasing deep southerly flow
around the western periphery of the ridge axis. This should open
the region to increasing Gulf moisture which will likely result in
increasing afternoon humidity and heat indices early next week
along with an increase in isolated showers and storms.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

Gusty south winds are expected to continue at all TAF sites
through tomorrow morning. While VFR will prevail the rest of
today, a surge in MVFR stratus is expected to move north across
portions of North and Central Texas overnight, impacting the
airports from just before daybreak and the morning push. The MVFR
cloud deck will eventually lift back to VFR by the afternoon, with
persisting gusty south winds.

Prater

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    94  77  93  76  94 /   0   0   5  30   5
Waco                93  76  93  75  92 /   0   0   5  10   5
Paris               91  75  90  73  89 /   0   0  10  40  20
Denton              95  76  93  73  94 /   0   0   5  30   5
McKinney            93  77  93  75  92 /   0   0  10  30  10
Dallas              95  77  94  77  94 /   0   0   5  30  10
Terrell             91  75  91  74  91 /   0   0   5  20  10
Corsicana           93  77  93  76  92 /   0   0   5  10  10
Temple              94  74  94  75  94 /   0   0   5   5   5
Mineral Wells       96  76  95  73  95 /   0   5   5  30   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$