Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
156 FXUS64 KFWD 301116 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 616 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Heavy rainfall will impact much of North and Central Texas tonight through early Friday, therefore, a Flood Watch will be in effect from this afternoon through Friday morning. - A couple strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along and west of the US-281 corridor this afternoon and evening. - Much cooler weather is expected this weekend with continued clouds and scattered showers/storms lingering through Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 219 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026 The long advertised pattern change will begin unfolding across North and Central Texas Wednesday as the upper ridge finally loses control to the approaching western trough. The primary upper low will move into the southern Rockies while surface cyclogenesis occurs across the High Plains. A pacific front extending south from this low will become the primary focus for convection as it approaches western portions of the forecast area. The region is beginning today dry, although showers may skirt our western counties later this morning. Increasing large-scale ascent and a deeply moistening column will support scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon, initially favoring western North and Central Texas. A few showers and storms may also develop near the I-35 corridor in North Texas, however, coverage should remain scattered at best. There will be a window for a few strong to severe storms Wednesday afternoon and early evening, particularly along and west of US-281. MLCAPE of nearly 1500 J/kg combined with modest deep- layer shear will support organized storms and perhaps a few supercells. The main hazards will be damaging winds, although a few instances of large hail cannot be ruled out. Low-level shear will be locally enhanced as we head into the evening hours as the low-level jet strengthens, which could support a brief period where conditions may favor a quick spin-up tornado. This potential remains low but it will be something to monitor later today. As we head into tonight, weather conditions will quickly change from west to east as a more focused line of showers and storms shifts east. A nearly stationary southwest to northeast oriented frontal zone is expected to extend from the Texas Hill Country into Oklahoma as increasingly favorable upper-level forcing overspreads the region. A strengthening upper jet will enhance ascent while a persistent southerly low-level jet continually replenishes the anomalously moist airmass. Storm motions will become nearly parallel to the surface boundary, creating a favorable setup for repeated development and training. This, combined with precipitable water values above 2 inches, will support very efficient rainfall production. The flash flood threat should initially be maximized across the Big Country and western portions of North Texas this evening before gradually expanding east towards the I-35 corridor tonight. For this reason, a Flood Watch will begin this afternoon and continue through Friday morning across much of North and Central Texas. Widespread totals of 2-4 inches are expected within the watch, with localized 5-7 inch amounts possible where thunderstorms repeatedly track across the same locations. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 219 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026 Heavy rain and flooding concerns will continue into Thursday as the corridor of strongest moisture convergence slowly translates east. The greatest flash flood threat during the early Thursday morning hours should gradually shift from western North Texas towards the I-35 corridor as training showers and thunderstorms continue along the slow-moving boundary. By this point, antecedent rainfall will become an increasingly important factor, allowing flooding to occur more readily due to previous waves of precipitation. Cloud cover, widespread precipitation, and the approaching cold front will lead to a drop in temperatures on Thursday. Afternoon highs will largely be in the upper 70s to lower 80s across much of the region, roughly 10-20 degrees cooler than today. Rain coverage should become somewhat more scattered Thursday night as the initial upper disturbance lifts northeast and the first axis of stronger forcing departs. The flooding threat should begin to decrease, but it will not disappear entirely. Additional pockets of heavy rain falling on areas that already received heavy rain may still cause flooding. The broader upper trough will remain slow to leave the region Friday. Another shortwave rotating around the trough will maintain ascent over the post-frontal airmass, while isentropic ascent over the cooler surface air supports additional showers and embedded thunderstorms. The exact placement of the more persistent rain will depend considerably on where Thursday`s convection leaves the frontal zone and associated boundaries. The upper system will remain nearby through the weekend, keeping the forecast cooler, cloudier, and periodically wet. Widespread heavy rainfall is less likely Saturday and Sunday than during the Wednesday night to Thursday period, but scattered showers and embedded storms will remain possible and could still interfere with outdoor plans. Temperatures this weekend will feel markedly different compared to the recent heat, with highs generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s and overnight lows falling into the upper 50s to 60s. The upper trough should finally begin shifting farther east late in the weekend or early next week, allowing rain chances to gradually diminish. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 609 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026 MVFR skies have moved in across North and Central Texas as moisture continues to stream northward. The MVFR skies will persist for a few more hours before VFR skies return by 16z. Rain chances will begin to increase by 21z as scattered showers and storms develop across North Texas. Confidence that storms will impact the terminals remains low, however, there remains enough confidence that storms will be in the vicinity of the North Texas TAF sites. This activity should be fairly transient and shift northeast by 01z. The main line of showers and storms will arrive closer to 05z with widespread precipitation expected. Once this line arrives, it will be slow to progress eastward with rain chances persisting through the night. The highest confidence in thunderstorm impacts remains mainly between 05-10z with the bulk of the precipitation. After 10z, the widespread precipitation will be east of the North and Central Texas TAF sites, however, lingering scattered thunderstorm activity may still generate temporary impacts. Along with the precipitation, expect erratic wind speed/direction, lower ceilings and reduced visibility. Given there is still some uncertainty in the timing of the early Thursday morning activity, expect refinements to the TAFs throughout the day. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 93 74 84 71 / 40 80 100 80 Waco 94 74 88 70 / 30 60 90 90 Paris 94 73 86 68 / 10 30 80 90 Denton 93 71 83 68 / 50 90 100 70 McKinney 93 71 83 67 / 30 70 100 90 Dallas 94 75 85 71 / 40 70 100 90 Terrell 94 73 87 68 / 20 40 80 90 Corsicana 94 73 89 69 / 20 20 80 90 Temple 94 73 89 69 / 30 50 90 90 Mineral Wells 91 69 83 66 / 60 100 90 50 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from 4 PM CDT this afternoon through Friday morning for TXZ091>094-100>105-115>121-129>134-141>146-156>161-174. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...Hernandez