164
FXUS64 KFWD 171047
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
547 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably hot and humid conditions are forecast through the
  rest of the workweek.

- There is a chance (20-30%) of thunderstorms late Wednesday
  evening and Wednesday night mainly north of I-20. A few of
  these storms could be severe.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

No significant changes are needed to the short term forecast
through Wednesday. Hot and humid conditions are expected today
with highs in the mid 90s. Southerly winds will increase to 15 to
25 mph and become gusty by late morning. This deeper mixing will
help dewpoints fall a bit this afternoon and will help keep heat
indices in check. Otherwise, our next chances for rain/storms
appear to be a limited threat mainly north of I-20 late Wednesday
into Wednesday night.

Dunn

Previous Discussion:
/Overnight through Wednesday/

A warm and humid night is expected across Central and North Texas
tonight with temperatures in the mid 70s and dewpoints just a few
degrees cooler. Some intermittent patchy cloud cover is expected
through the night, otherwise no precipitation is expected.

Hot and humid conditions will continue through mid week as weak
ridging spreads through the Southern Plains. Increasing southwest
flow aloft will send temperatures into the mid and upper 90s
today, especially west of I-35. Deeper mixing is expected to keep
dewpoints in check though through late afternoon which should keep
heat indices from getting much higher than 103-105 degrees. Breezy
southerly winds will also help mitigate the heat. This weak
ridging will spread eastward on Wednesday and we`ll see a lowering
of mid level heights and slightly cooler afternoon highs as a
result. A cold front will slide southward through the Plains on
Wednesday afternoon where scattered showers and thunderstorms will
develop. The front will make it into North Texas late Wednesday
evening and will continue to serve as a focus for convective
development into the nighttime hours.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 201 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025/
/Wednesday Night through Monday/

A low amplitude trough swinging through the Southern Plains will
drag a cold front southward into the region by Wednesday evening.
A moderately unstable airmass and moisture pooled along the
approaching frontal boundary beneath weak mid level ascent should
be sufficient for scattered thunderstorms to continue into North
Texas late Wednesday evening and night. This activity will likely
be confined to areas north of I-20 where better forcing will be
present. Coverage of storms is expected to only be about 20-30%,
but any storms that can continue into the late evening hours would
have at least some low severe potential. This activity will
diminish late overnight as the strongest forcing pulls off to the
east and the frontal boundary loses southward momentum. Mid level
ridging will then build back in across the Southern Plains through
the end of the week into the weekend. This will allow
temperatures to climb back into the mid/upper 90s across much of
North Texas. Ridging will then shift eastward into the Midwest by
early next week resulting in increasing deep southerly flow
around the western periphery of the ridge axis. This should open
the region to increasing Gulf moisture which will likely result in
increasing afternoon humidity and heat indices early next week
along with an increase in isolated showers and storms.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail today with increasing southerly winds. South
winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt can be expected. These
breezy conditions will persist into tonight. It`s looking a little
more likely that there will be MVFR cigs develop across Central TX
late tomorrow night and spread north into the D10 airspace by
early Wednesday morning.

Dunn

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    95  77  93  76  94 /   0   0   5  30   5
Waco                93  76  92  75  92 /   0   0   0  10   5
Paris               91  75  89  73  89 /   0   0  20  40  20
Denton              96  76  93  73  94 /   0   5  10  30   5
McKinney            94  76  92  75  92 /   0   0  10  30  10
Dallas              96  77  94  77  94 /   0   0   5  30  10
Terrell             92  76  91  74  91 /   0   0   5  20  10
Corsicana           93  77  91  76  92 /   0   0   5  10  10
Temple              94  75  93  75  94 /   0   0   0   5   5
Mineral Wells       97  76  94  73  95 /   0   5  10  30   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$