320
FXUS64 KFWD 221057
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
557 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

Made some minor changes to PoPs for this afternoon/evening based
on latest trends in the high-res guidance and current surface
observations. The old outflow boundary is still draped across
Central Oklahoma with the actual cold front farther northwest
across the Panhandle and northwest Oklahoma, based on temps and
RAP theta-e analysis. While the front is on the move, it is a
little slower than the previous forecast, so I`ve nudged PoPs down
a bit for late this afternoon across the northwest. It still looks
like widespread scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will
develop atop the frontal surface tonight, and have nudged PoPs
upward a bit through the overnight hours. No other significant
changes are needed at this time.

Dunn

Previous Discussion:
/Overnight through Monday/

One more hot day is in store for North Texas before a cold front
moves through and brings rain chances along with cooler weather
through the middle part of the week. Mid level ridging will
continue to get squished to the south as stronger troughing
overspreads the western and central CONUS through Monday. This
initial shortwave trough will send a cold front southward through
North Texas later this evening. Right now, the front is draped
across the TX Panhandle and far northwest Oklahoma with a
noticeable outflow boundary from earlier convection draped across
central Oklahoma. This will effectively become the cold front
later today and will spread south into North Texas this evening.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing mainly to our
northwest this afternoon, although a few storms could sneak into
our northwest counties during this time. Better rain chances will
arrive with the front this evening, although the strongest
synoptic forcing for ascent will begin to pull away to the
northeast by tonight. The highest PoPs this evening will be along
the front mainly across our far western counties, where a semi-
organized cluster of storms should be ongoing. Farther northeast
along the front, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are
expected, although rainfall amounts should be lighter than areas
to the southwest. Rain chances will linger through the overnight
hours and into Monday morning as the front makes slow southward
progress and another upstream shortwave races through the Southern
Plains.

Highs today will top out in the mid 90s under partly cloudy skies,
but will drop 5-15 degrees on Monday with clouds lingering around
and north winds ushering in some cooler air.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 404 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024/
/Tuesday through Saturday/

The cold front mentioned in the short-term discussion will push
well south of our forecast area by Monday night, becoming
stationary across south central Texas by Tuesday. Surface high
pressure over the Central Plains will enable a persistent
northerly wind flow through most of the week - indeed, the longest
period of north winds North Texas has experienced since the
spring months. This will help moderate the temperatures this
coming week, versus the unseasonably warm conditions we`ve
encountered of late.

A large-scale upper level trough will develop and deepen across
the Midwest in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe, while a smaller-
scale lobe of vorticity slides southeastward into our region on
the backside of this larger feature. The forcing for ascent
brought about by this approaching shortwave will provide our
second primary opportunity for precipitation across the area this
week. Scattered showers, and perhaps some isolated thunderstorms,
will initially develop over our western counties Tuesday
afternoon, with scattered coverage expanding across the remainder
of North Texas Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Moisture and
lift will not be overly significant, and thus QPF amounts should
remain fairly light area-wide Tuesday night into Wednesday. Most
of the precipitation should exit the region to the east by late
Wednesday afternoon, with dry conditions persisting from that
point onward through Saturday.


The combination of lower thicknesses, persistent northerly surface
flow, and intermittent clouds and precipitation should combine to
reel afternoon temperatures back to near (or even below) seasonal
norms. Highs through the period should be confined to the lower
80s across much of the area, with middle 80s present in the
central counties. These values were consistent with those offered
by the NBM, as well as the ECMWF ensemble guidance. Overnight lows
in the lower to middle 60s (with some 50s out west) will
definitely help make the mornings feel a bit more fall-like.


Bradshaw

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail today with southerly winds around 10 kt and an
increase in high cloud cover. A cold front will approach the
region tonight and we`ll show an initial wind shift around 03Z
which is a touch slower than the previous forecast. Scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms are expected across the region
mainly overnight and we`ll continue with the VCSH for a few hours
as the front moves through. A passing disturbance late tonight
should result in an uptick in showers and a few thunderstorms
after midnight. We`ll also see widespread MVFR cigs late tonight
into Monday morning.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    95  69  80  67  83 /   5  50  50  10  20
Waco                96  71  86  69  87 /   0  40  20  10  30
Paris               93  70  81  63  84 /   0  30  50  10  10
Denton              94  65  81  62  84 /  10  50  50  10  20
McKinney            94  68  81  64  84 /   5  50  50  10  20
Dallas              95  70  81  67  84 /   5  50  40  10  20
Terrell             95  70  83  66  85 /   0  40  40  10  20
Corsicana           95  73  87  69  87 /   0  30  20  10  20
Temple              95  71  89  69  88 /   0  30  20  10  30
Mineral Wells       93  64  80  62  82 /  20  70  50  20  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$