Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
191 FXUS64 KFWD 271755 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1255 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025 ...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat index values near/slightly above 100 are forecast today and tomorrow, with tomorrow being the hottest day of the week. - Isolated showers and storms are possible today; primarily across portions of western Central Texas and the Big Country this afternoon through early evening. - Increasing rain chances and cooler weather return later this week and this weekend behind the passage of a cold front late Thursday and Friday. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Friday/ Recent water vapor imagery shows a mid-level ridge remains in place over our state. At the same time, southerly flow in the lower levels continues to bring gulf moisture into our region. With a steady stream of higher dewpoints, the weak surface boundary near our southern counties of Central Texas should continue to retract north the rest of the day. We`re still expecting a round of isolated showers and storms through early this evening mainly for portions of western Central Texas and the Big Country. Some of this activity may approach the I-35 corridor in North Texas, but if anything develops it should be short-lived with only a 10% chance of rain. Occasional lightning and brief heavy rain will be the main concern with any storm today. For the rest of us, expect mostly sunny skies with the exception of the far northeast zones where clouds may hang around the rest of the day. Temperatures will be near normal for late August with highs mainly in the low to mid 90s. Those areas that stay mostly cloudy will see highs in the upper 80s. For tomorrow, we`re still expecting a hot, breezy, humid day ahead of an approaching cold front. Latest guidance shows a mid- level wave rotating around an upper trough over the eastern CONUS, moving into portions of the southern Plains (eastern OK and AR). This will push the cold front towards our region late Thursday into Friday. Ahead of it, breezy southwest flow near the surface will bring hot/humid air with widespread highs in the mid/upper 90s. While there is some low rain chances in the morning across the northeast, the best chance for storms for North Texas will arrive in the late afternoon and evening with the help of daytime heating. A few strong to marginally severe storms are possible due to sufficient instability and deep-layer shear. Currently, we are monitoring areas along the Red River and the northeastern counties for the threat of strong/severe downburst winds, hail and locally heavy rain. As expected, CAMs still differ on the timing of the front and coverage of storms ahead/along of it. Some have convection developing along the Red River by mid afternoon (after 3 pm) and others don`t show much until the evening (after 7pm). The most likely scenario at this time is that we will see storms developing over Oklahoma in the early afternoon hours and then tracking south along the Red River by late afternoon or early evening (after 5 pm). Rain chances will expand across our region overnight and Friday as the front pushes south. The highest PoPs continue to be across East Teas where the highest lift/moisture will reside. Highs on Friday will depend on the progression/position of the front and the clouds/rain. Areas behind the front will likely stay in the 80s while areas ahead of the front (mostly Central TX) will see highs in the low/mid 90s. Sanchez && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Weekend and Early Next Week/ The weekend will remain somewhat active with northwest flow aloft sending a couple of disturbances across the region. We will have at least a slight chance for showers and storms Saturday and Sunday area-wide with the best coverage (30-50%) across Central Texas and the Hill Country. By Labor Day (Monday), rain chances will be confined to our southern zones as the second wave departs. We won`t see a washout over the weekend, and many locations will miss the rain during this period. The main concern with any storm will be occasional lightning, gusty winds and brief heavy rain. In particular for those with outdoor activities during this holiday weekend, make sure to stay up to date with the latest forecast. The combination of rain, clouds and northerly winds will keep the daytime highs in the 80s Saturday and Sunday. A gradual warming trend will commence next week but highs are expected to remain in the upper 80s to low 90s through mid-week. Sanchez && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ Overall quiet conditions will prevail across the TAF sites through Thursday. Outside of SCT-BKN mid-level clouds, VFR should continue through the period. A few isolated showers and storms are still expected to develop this afternoon and early this evening, but the best potential remains across the ArkLaTex and western Central Texas/Big Country. There is a low (10%) chance for any precipitation to approach any of the sites later today. Otherwise, winds will remain light the rest of the day generally from the southeast. They should eventually veer to the southwest by Thursday morning. Occasional gusts near 15 kts can be expected. Another round of isolated to scattered rain/storms is in the forecast for Thursday afternoon but should remain north/northeast of the North Texas sites. Sanchez && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 92 77 97 76 91 / 10 10 20 50 40 Waco 94 75 97 77 95 / 10 10 10 20 50 Paris 86 69 91 69 80 / 20 10 60 90 60 Denton 91 75 97 72 89 / 10 10 20 60 40 McKinney 90 75 96 73 88 / 10 10 30 60 40 Dallas 92 77 97 76 92 / 10 5 20 50 40 Terrell 91 74 95 73 89 / 10 5 20 50 50 Corsicana 92 76 96 76 94 / 10 5 10 40 60 Temple 92 73 96 75 96 / 20 5 5 10 40 Mineral Wells 92 74 97 72 91 / 10 10 10 40 40 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$